ECO331H1 Chapter Week 4: ECO331H1 Chapter Week : ECO331H1 Chapter : Week 4 Tversky and Kahneman (1974)—Judgement under Uncertainty Heuristics and Biases

104 views2 pages

lilacoyster158

27 Jan 2019

School

Department

Course

Professor

For unlimited access to Textbook Notes, a Class+ subscription is required.

Document Summary

Week 4: tversky and kahneman (1974) judgement under uncertainty: heuristics and biases. Usually quite useful, but can lead to severe and systematic errors. What is probability that a belongs to class b. What is probability that process b will generate a. Evaluate based on degree that a resembles b. When a highly representative of b, probability that a originates from b is judged to be high. If a not similar to b, probability that a originates from b judged to be low. Base rate frequency should have major effect on probability but does not have effect on representativeness. Similarity of sample statistic to population parameter does not depend on size of sample. Judged probability of sample statistic will be essentially independent of sample size. Expect sequence of events generated by random process will represent essential characteristics of process even when sequence is short. Put too much faith in results of small samples, overestimate replicability of results.

Related Questions

1	Which of the following statements about Type I and Type II errors is correct
a	Type I: Reject a true alternative hypothesis. Type II: Do not reject a false alternative.
b	Type I: Reject a true null hypothesis. Type II: Do not reject a false null hypothesis.
c	Type I: Reject a false null hypothesis. Type II: Reject a true null hypothesis.
d	Type I: Do not reject a false null hypothesis. Type II: Reject a true null hypothesis.

2	You are reading a report that contains a hypothesis test you are interested in. The writer of the report writes that the p-value for the test you are interested in is 0.0749, but does not tell you the value of the test statistic. From this information you can:


a	Not reject the hypothesis at a Probability of Type I error = .05, but reject the hypothesis at a Probability of Type I error = 0.10

b	Reject the hypothesis at a Probability of Type I error = .05, and reject at a Probability of Type I error = 0.10

c	Not reject the hypothesis at a Probability of Type I error = 0.05, and not reject at a Probability of Type I error = 0.10

d	Reject the hypothesis at a Probability of Type I error = .05, but not reject at a Probability of Type I error = 0.10


3	The random sample below is obtained to test the following hypothesis about the population mean.
	H?: ? ?	1500
	H?: ? >	1500
	620	1711	366	2528	2678	1661	442	725	1938
	409	330	2480	542	369	2124	549	2074	1665
	1873	873	2143	2061	1177	2509	1264	2397	1523
	1837	1958	1041	1639	2199	2232	387	2270	2136
	1111	1883	2612	2230	1597	1726	694	1990	1354
	2090	909	2128	1608	747	1121	2220	2390	2347
	1041	316	655	632	2064	1901	532	552	846
	2704	1410	2165	1065	937	1452	2539	410	656
	1169	527	809	2364	2350	2210	1459	2391	856
	2711	1985	2382	2289	1927	518	2177	437	1151
	2018	1580	607	2715	2188	1691	1394	2610	1186
	695	2428	2246	858	2036	1681	2449	1578	1971
	1846	1729	2389	1737	1913	1863	2072	2593	2287
	2220	2230	551	458	2626	2731	488	2551	1736
	1373	307	1803	2647	2679	1508	1468	1443	516
	1002	2116	2616	817	2522	460	1879	1999	1837

	The level of significance of the test is ? = 0.05. Compute the relevant test statistic.
	This is a(n) _______ (two-tail, upper-tail, lower-tail) test. The test statistic is TS = _______.
a	Two-tail test		TS =	1.81
	Do not reject H?: ? ? 1500. Conclude that the population mean is not greater than 1500.
b	Upper tail test.		TS =	1.52
	Do not reject H?: ? ? 1500. Conclude that the population mean is not greater than 1500.
c	Upper tail test.		TS =	1.81
	Reject H?: ? ? 1500. Conclude that the population mean is greater than 1500.
d	Lower tail test.		TS =	1.98
	Do not reject H?: ? ? 1500. Conclude that the population mean is no greater than 1500.

4	Consider the following hypothesis test.
	H?: ? ?	30
	H?: ? >	30
	A random sample of n = 15 yielded the following observations
	51	38	26	16	28
	57	20	33	35	23
	21	47	56	54	36
	Use ? =	0.05
	TS = ______	CV = ______	State the decision rule.
a	1.68	1.761	Do not reject H?. Conclude the mean is not greater than 30.
b	1.68	1.64	Reject H?. Conclude the mean is greater than 30.
c	1.847	2.145	Do not reject H?. Conclude the mean is not less than 30.
d	1.847	1.761	Reject H?. Conclude the mean is less than 30.

5	In a recent study, a major fast food restaurant had a mean service time of 165 seconds. The company embarks on a quality improvement effort to reduce the service time and has developed improvements to the service process. The new process will be tested in a sample of stores. The new process will be adopted in all of its stores, if it reduced mean service time by more than 45 seconds compared to the current mean service time. To perform the hypothesis test, the sample of 48 stores yields the following data (seconds).





	90	96	133	108	136	110	119	138
	129	98	101	92	135	124	115	90
	132	125	110	124	126	138	94	130
	108	96	140	135	102	114	109	137
	138	104	108	134	92	107	96	119
	105	111	96	136	126	116	98	131

	Use ? =	0.05
	\|TS\| = ______	\|CV\| = ______
a	1.548	1.678	Do not reject H?. The mean service time is not reduced by more than 45 seconds. Do not adopt the new process.

b	1.871	1.678	Reject H?. The mean service time is reduced by more than 45 seconds. Adopt the new process.

c	1.871	1.640	Do not reject H?. The mean service time is not reduced by more than 45 seconds. Do not adopt the new process.

d	1.548	1.640	Reject H?. The mean service time is reduced by more than 45 seconds. Adopt the new process.

Question 1

Which of the following approaches to understanding and predicting consumer behavior depends primarily on the knowledge and experience of a firm's employees and its suppliers?

		Test marketing and price experiments
		Analysis of historical data.
		Direct consumer surveys.
		Expert opinion.

Question 2

In which of the following situations would reliance on expert opinion as a basis for a managerial decision be most preferred?

		When the product being marketed is relatively new.
		When the level of economic activity can have a significant effect on the demand for the firm's output.
		When the product can be packaged with a variety of price and quality combinations.
		When the business in question serves as a supplier of inputs to other businesses, especially in multi-product situations where other strategies may be prohibitively expensive.

Question 3

The approach to analyzing consumer behavior that asks consumers to rank and choose among different product attributes to reveal their relative valuation of different characteristics is called:

		conjoint analysis.
		contingent valuation.
		the hedonic estimation technique.
		a direct consumer survey.

Question 4

All of the following are limitations of direct consumer surveys except:

		the possibility of response biases because survey respondents may not want to reveal their true preferences.
		the possibility that the type of questions asked may unintentionally bias the respondent's answers.
		the likelihood that respondents will deliberately and systematically mislead interviewers.
		the possibility that consumers' responses may not reflect their actual behavior in the market place.

Question 5

Which of the following approaches to understanding and predicting consumer behavior does not actually solicit any information from potential customers?

		Expert opinion.
		Test marketing.
		Analysis of historical data.
		Conjoint analysis.

Question 6

Data collected on a sample of individuals with different characteristics at a specific point in time are called:

		panel data.
		cross-section data.
		time series data.
		none of the above.

Question 7

Which of the following approaches to understanding and predicting consumer behavior provides the most insight into how consumers can be expected to respond in an actual market setting?

		Test marketing.
		Conjoint analysis.
		Expert opinion.
		Analysis of historical data.

Question 8

An approach to analyzing consumer behavior in which consumer reaction to different prices is analyzed in a laboratory situation or a test market is called:

		non-price experiments.
		focus groups.
		price experiments.
		none of the above.

Question 9

Data collected on the same observation unit at a number of points in time are called:

		panel data.
		time series data.
		cross-section data.
		none of the above.

Question 10

A measure of how much the coefficient would vary in regressions based on different samples is called:

		F-statistic.
		standard error of the estimated coefficient.
		t-statistic.
		partial F-statistic.

Question 11

The test statistic used to test the hypothesis of whether a regression coefficient is significantly different from zero, holding all other independent variables constant, is called a(n):

		t-test.
		F-test.
		multicollinearity test.
		autocorrelation test.

Question 12

Regression analysis that analyzes the relationship between one dependent variable and several independent variables is called:

		cluster analysis.
		correlation analysis.
		multiple regression analysis.
		simple regression analysis.

Question 13

The ratio of the regression coefficient to its standard error is called:

		F-statistic.
		t-statistic.
		coefficient of determination.
		partial F-statistic.

Question 14

The coefficient of determination will range between what values?

		-1 and +1
		0 and 1
		-3 and +3
		none of the above

Question 15

The range of values in which we can be confident that the true regression coefficient lies within a given degree of probability is called a:

		confidence interval.
		logistic regression.
		prediction interval.
		none of the above.

Question 16

The estimated regression equation is Y = 10 + 2.5X, if X =0 than the predicted value of Y is equal to

		2.5
		7.5
		12.5
		10

crimsoncamel287

Hello, could I get some assistance with this question? Thank you.

Read the articles and discuss the problems of Economic Inequality in the U.S.economy, summarize key points and post in the Discussions area:

3) Inequality. On important but irrelevant facts

http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2014/01/inequality-0?zid=293&ah=e50f636873b42369614615ba3c16df4a

Here is the article:

Inequality

On important but irrelevant facts

Should we care more about global or national inequality?

Free exchange

Jan 9th, 2014

by R.A. | LONDON

WRITING on Thomas Piketty's new book, Nicolas Goetzmann notes:

I think that Piketty missed something which might be important: Capital is mobile, workers are not, and in the end, we have this: Gini is reducing on a worldwide basis since 2005.

Scott Sumner adds:

I also like Goetzmann's comment about global Gini coefficients. Liberals should care about global welfare. Are they closet nationalists?

These sorts of remarks are common responses to those pointing out that inequality is soaring across the rich world, and they strike me as very problematic.

It is true, of course, that inequality globally has been falling. And it is absolutely right to say that this trend is hugely important and is contributing to a massive rise in global welfare. We should all be ecstatic about it. But in no way does that development excuse us from caring about and worrying about national income inequality, for a few very important reasons.

The first is that it implies, without ever making an actual argument, that efforts to reduce income inequality within rich economies must necessarily slow reductions in global inequality. Why bring up the global statistic unless you are worried that expressions of concern about national inequality are likely to undermine the global trend? Some egalitarian-minded policies might, of course, but many others would not. I'm not sure why someone would want to stake out the position that subsidized pre-school for disadvantaged children is unnecessary, for example, because global inequality is falling.

Second, while we all should care about welfare globally, we should also recognize that the political salience of the issue is exclusively national. To a first approximation, America's Congress does not care in the least about the status of global inequality. There are no sitting congresspersons from Burundi. National inequality, by contrast, is highly politically relevant. Catch-up in the emerging world has a lot to do with innovation and openness in the rich world. If soaring national inequality undermines political support for policies that facilitate innovation and openness, that's a problem for everyone. It's a pretty basic political economy point that globalization will continue while national polities feel that globalization is broadly in their interest. People who like globalization should therefore be very, very concerned when it doesn't appear to be generating broad-based growth in rich countries.

The third is that inequality is growing within emerging markets. One might be inclined to argue that we shouldn't worry too much about that, since rising inequality is a classic side-effect of rapid development which should go away as emerging economies mature. But one of the most important points in Mr. Piketty's book is that the conventional wisdom that development naturally increases and then reduces inequalities is wrong: the data show that there is no systematic tendency for inequality to fall as an economy matures.

And so we should note that the backlash to globalization and development might well come from within emerging markets, and indeed one would have to be fairly cut-off from the news to miss populist expressions of dissatisfaction across the biggest emerging economies over the past couple of years. What's more, Mr. Piketty's work suggests that as the process of catch-up slows inequality trends within countries will begin to dominate inequality trends across countries, leading global inequality to rise once more.

So yes, global inequality has been falling. That is no reason for people of any ideological persuasion to ignore very worrying trends in national distributions of income and wealth.

orangegnu267

ECO331H1 Chapter Week 4: ECO331H1 Chapter Week : ECO331H1 Chapter : Week 4 Tversky and Kahneman (1974)—Judgement under Uncertainty Heuristics and Biases

Document Summary

Get access

Related textbook solutions

Principles of Economics

Principles of Macroeconomics

Principles of Microeconomics

Related Documents

ECO331H1 Lecture 4: Lecture 4 People and Probability

ECO331H1 Chapter Week 4: ECO331H1 Chapter Week : ECO331H1 Chapter : Week 4 Barberis, Schleifer, Vishny—A model of investor sentiment

COGS-Q 101 Lecture Notes - Lecture 10: Representativeness Heuristic

Related Questions