BUSI 3401 Final: B3401.docx

• School: Memorial University
• Department: Business Administration
• Course: BUSI 3401
• Professor: Ghazal Assidapour

Document Summary

Steps in forecasting: determine the purpose of the forecast, establish a forecasting horizon, select a forecasting technique, gather and analyze relevant historical data, prepare the forecast, monitor the forecast. Centered moving average (cma) a moving average positioned at the center of the data that were used to compute it: deseasonalize the demand data, fit a model to the deseasonalized demand data (e. g. moving average to trend, forecast using this model (to obtain deseasonalized forecasts, reseasonalize the deseasonalized forecasts. Forecast error actual value forecast value: mean absolute deviation (mad) absolute error with no cancelling effect weighs all errors evenly a good measure of actual error, sum of, mean squared error (mse) errors is scale dependent penalizes extreme errors, tends to magnify large, mean absolute percent error (mape) take zero values and is independent of scale and usable on all scales cannot be used when the time series can.