ECON 201 Lecture Notes - Lecture 29: Federal Funds Rate, Phillips Curve, Output Gap

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The decision to change the target federal funds rate begins with an assessment of the current state of the economy. Three key variables: inflation gap-inflation rate compared to 2% target, unemployment rate, output gap. If the inflation rate rises above the 2% target or expected to move above it, the. Fed considers raising the federal funds rate target. If the inflation rate is below the target or expected to move below it, the fed considers lowering the federal funds rate target. If the unemployment rate is below the natural unemployment rate, a labor shortage might put pressure on wage rates to rise, which might feed into inflation. If the unemployment rate is above the natural unemployment rate, lower inflation is expected. If the output gap is positive, have an inflationary gap and the inflation rate will most likely accelerate. The fed will consider raising the federal funds rate. The fed will consider lowering the federal funds rate.

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