PSY 341 Lecture Notes - Lecture 26: List Of Fallacies, Medical Diagnosis, Base Rate
8 Dec 2016
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Availability bias/heuristic: estimate frequency/probability based on how easy it is to think of examples or get an estimate. Bias: (cid:271)egi(cid:374) (cid:449)ith (cid:862)(cid:396)(cid:863) is easie(cid:396) to thi(cid:374)k a(cid:271)out. Higher availability of some info in memory leads to incomplete data retrieval. Trade-off for using heuristics: gain efficiency (speed) but sacrifice. Anchoring heuristic accuracy: use initial estimates as reference point for adjustments, even when you know initial estimate is bogus, estimate proportion of african nations in u. s. (approximately 28%) First, experimenter spins wheel rigged to land on either 10 or 65. Although the wheel is completely unrelated to the estimate, it still influences judgment! 10 -> people use anchor and adjust upwards: 25% 65 -> people use anchor and adjust downwards: 45: this happens in real life. Representativeness/similarity bias heuristic: sometimes we ignore probabilities, sample sizes, and base rates. Instead, base judgment on notion of similarity/representativeness: famous probability example: conjunction fallacy, rancher/contractor looking for new vehicle.
