PSYC 1000U Lecture 2: Research Methods
Document Summary
We could make a reasonable guess based on our experiences, thoughts, and beliefs common sense intuition. We could go ask people authority heuristic limited to knowledge of others existing information may not be valid or reliable. We could conduct research test it out for ourselves. After learning the outcome of an event, many people believe they could have predicted that very outcome. We tend to say i knew it all along when explaining events that objectively would have been difficult to foresee. We are much too certain in our judgements. We overestimate our performance, our rate of work, our skills, and our degree of self-control. We also overestimate the accuracy of our knowledge (i. e. , people are much more certain than they are accurate) Overconfidence is particularly a problem in eyewitness testimony. We tend to perceive order in random events when there isn"t any, which make us think we can make a prediction from a random series.
