GEO 231 Lecture Notes - Lecture 9: Population Projection, Kindergarten

• School: Ryerson University
• Department: Geography
• Course: GEO 231
• Professor: Shuguang Wang

Document Summary

In demographic analysis, researchers not only study the historical changes and the current population trends; they are also interested in knowing the future trend. Accommodation planning means to project school aged children in different areas to decide where new schools need to be built and which existing schools might be closed to save money. So population project is wide used in different professions and is an important part of demographic analysis. There are several methods: extrapolation methods, linear, exponential, components of growth, logistic method. For large-scale geography (country and region): land, food, water, other resources. For smaller-scale geography (ct, neighborhood: upper limit of a ct, population of a mature ct or neighborhood. Generally speaking, population projection works better for shorter periods of time and for larger areas of geography. The longer the projection period and the smaller the geographic area, the less accurate the projection will be. Small areas are sensitive to minor change and one-time changes.