BFC1001 Lecture Notes - Lecture 10: Downside Risk, Futures Exchange, Financial Instrument

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Risk = uncertainty in the timing and magnitude of cash flows arising from assets or liabilities. Risk has a potential up-side (advantages) and down-side (disadvantages). Asset upside risk = receiving cash flows sooner/larger than expected. Asset downside risk = receiving cash flows later/smaller than expected. Liability upside risk = paying cash flows later/smaller than expected. Liability downside risk = paying cash flows sooner/larger than expected. Most assets and liabilities have risk in their cash flows. Example of managing the up-side and down-side of risk: You own 5,000 shares in bhp, purchased at /share. If the bhp stock price rises, you make a capital gain. If the bhp stock price falls, you make a capital loss. Since your wealth in bhp is subject to uncertainty, you are interested to discover information about the future potential for up-side risks or down-side risks. Scenario 1- you expect iron-ore price to enter a bear (falling) market.

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