OIM 301- Final Exam Guide - Comprehensive Notes for the exam ( 53 pages long!)
4 Dec 2017
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Titles per $, bottom of equation would be payroll plus overhead. 2/7/17: forecasting, process of predicting a future event, underlying basis of all business decisions, production. Jury of executive opinion: pool opinions of high-level experts, sometimes augment by statistical models, 2. Delphi method: panel of experts, queried iteratively, 3. Sales force composite: estimates from individual salespersons are reviewed for reasonableness, then aggregated, 4. Consumer market survey: ask the customer, quantitative methods, used when situation is (cid:494)stable(cid:495) and historical data exist, existing products, current technology. Forecasting sales of color televisions: time-series models, 1. Easy to detect: cycles: patterns in data that occur every several years. Think of the effect of booms and recessions in the economy as a whole. Difficult to predict: random variations: blips in data due to unusual situations. Impossible to predict: na ve approach, assumes demand in next period is the same as demand in most recent period, ex. Find average historical demand for each season: 2.
