gk20080134435

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This question is related to the article " Inflation, recession and the perils of overtightening ", The Globe and Mail, November 14, 2022.

Source: Parkinson, D. (2022). Inflation, recession and the perils of overtightening: The office of the parliamentary budget officer decided to crunch the numbers to estimate what would happen if the bank of canada overstepped with its rate increases. surprisingly, it might not make much difference in wiping out inflation any faster.

Links: or

Note:

• Use your own words; DO NOT PLAGIARIZE from the article.
• Type and print your answer (i.e., hand-written answer will NOT be accepted).
• Use full sentences (not point forms and abbreviation) to answer this question.

Failure to do one of the above might result in a grade of ZERO for the whole question.

1. In attempt to tame inflation, the Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised interest rate seven times in 2022 (as of December 7, 2022, the overnight is 4.25%). In theory, an increase in interest rate can help to lower inflation rate or to slowdown the increase in inflation rate.  Explain the effect of an increase in interest rate in the foreign exchange market and how the subsequent change in exchange rate can help to tame inflation.  (5 points)
2. The article mentioned that the Office of the Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) tried to estimate what would happen to the Canadian economy if the BOC ran an overtightening monetary policy.

• What does overtightening monetary policy mean? (3 points)
• According to the PBO, what are the potential effects of an overtightening monetary policy on the Canadian economy? (7 points)

1. In the latter part of the article, it mentioned that the unexpected and unpleasant finding by the PBO was the interest rate hikes by the BOC would not have major impact on the country’s inflation rate since recent economic developments might offset the attempts by the BOC’s disinflationary attempt. Identify those factors and explain how they might reduce the effectiveness of the BOC’s effort to lower inflation rate.  (10 points)

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Consider two economies, Home and Foreign.  The DC/FC exchange is determined by the asset approach to the exchange rate.

Both countries are identical in the following ways:

• Production function is given a typical Cobb-Douglas function: Y = AKαL(1-α).
• The (real) money demand is given by hY – kR,

where     h = fraction of income held in the form of money, 1> h > 0

k = sensitivity of money demand (MD) to a change in (nominal) interest rate. 

Home and Foreign differ in the following ways:

Home

Foreign

Level of total factor productivity

4

1

Supply of capital

50625

40000

Supply of labour

10000

62500

Capital’s share of income

0.25

0.5

Nominal money supply

67200

28080

Fraction of income held in the form of money

20%

30%

Sensitivity of MD to a change in (nominal) interest rate

8000

8000

Long-run nominal interest rate

10%

12%

Note: 

• Quote the exchange rate as EDC/FC.
• Interest rates are expressed in decimal points (i.e., if R = 0.1, then it is interpreted as 10%).
• Keep your answer to at least 4 decimal points.

1. Initially, both countries are in their respective long-run equilibrium.  Find the long-run levels of prices in both countries and the DC/FC exchange rate if the (initial) expected DC/FC exchange rate is given by the ratio of domestic price level to foreign price level.  (6 points)

Suppose there are permanent changes in the domestic money market such that the central bank of Home shrinks its balance sheet.  As such, the level of money supply changes by 10%.  At the same time, the sensitivity of (domestic) money demand (MD) to a change in (nominal) interest rate changes to 6000.  In addition, any permanent change will cause the market the to revise their expected exchange rate by 0.3474 DC per FC. 

1. Find the short-run equilibrium DC/FC exchange rate. (5 points)
2. Find the new long-run equilibrium levels of prices in both countries and the DC/FC exchange rate. (4 points).
3. Now, suppose the central bank of Foreign finds the change in the short-run exchange rate in part (b) undesirable and wants to keep it EDC/FC at 1.75 via a temporary change in monetary policy. Is it possible for the foreign central bank to achieve this goal?  Yes/No, explain.  (5 points)

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8) Consider two vectors and where:

If we want to find the angle between these two vectors, we have two options: we can use the magnitude of the dot product, or the magnitude of the cross product.

• = AB cos()

= AB sin()

However, these approaches give conflicting answers for the value of .

a) What is the correct value of theta?

b) Why does the other formula give the wrong answer?