STAT3012 Lecture Notes - Lecture 12: Numerical Stability, Simple Linear Regression, Correlation And Dependence

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Lecture 12 - Polynomial regression
New concepts
Polynomial regression
Orthogonal polynomials
The poly,vcov and cov2cor command
Applied Linear Models: Lecture 12 1
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New topic – Polynomial regression
Theory – The polynomial regression model
A polynomial linear regression model of degree kNis
Yi=β0+β1xi+β2x2
i+. . . +βkxk
i+ǫi,(i= 1, . . . , n),(1)
where ǫ1,...ǫnare random errors satisfying the usual assumptions (A1) – (A4).
Remark
Typically statisticians aim for low order polynomial models – having degree klarger
than 5 or 6 is unusual.
Theory – Include lower order terms
If you use a polynomial model of degree k, then you should include all terms of
lower order (unless the circumstances are exceptional).
Applied Linear Models: Lecture 12 2
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Example – Cubic polynomials
Acubic polynomial should include linear and quadratic terms:
E[Yi|xi] = β0+β1xi+β2x2
i+β3x3
i
We should not omit (e.g.) the quadratic term:
E[Yi|xi] = β0+β1xi+β3x3
i
Applied Linear Models: Lecture 12 3
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Document Summary

A polynomial linear regression model of degree k n is. + kxk i + i, (i = 1, . N are random errors satisfying the usual assumptions (a1) (a4). Typically statisticians aim for low order polynomial models having degree k larger than 5 or 6 is unusual. If you use a polynomial model of degree k, then you should include all terms of lower order (unless the circumstances are exceptional). A cubic polynomial should include linear and quadratic terms: E[yi|xi] = 0 + 1xi + 2x2 i + 3x3 i. We should not omit (e. g. ) the quadratic term: E[yi|xi] = 0 + 1xi + 3x3 i. Fev (forced expiratory volume) is a mea- sure of lung function. The data include determinations of fev on 318 female children who were seen in a childhood respiratory disease study in mas- sachusetts in the u. s. Of interest to model fev by age.

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