8246 Lecture Notes - Lecture 3: Groupthink, Nuclear Proliferation, Human Security
20 Jun 2018
School
Department
Course
Professor
Week 3 – The Future Security Environments
Future Security Environment
Fluid
Characterised by a complex and dynamic mix of continuing and emerging challenges and
opportunities
New threats and challenges
Austerity
Elections
Rise of China, China Seas
Fundamentalism in Pakistan
Terrorism
The problems of Europe and the Middle East
Protectionism and nationalism
The Caliphate, and
American Leadership
North Korea
Political and economic tension in Europe
Next 50 Years
The state versus communities
Market states
New threats and challenges
Changing nature of the state
Global problems
Human security
United nations
Old Moore's Almanac
Security in 2050
Flexibility
Adaptability
Agility
Resilience
Options
When it comes to the future, there are three kinds of people: those who let it happen, make
it happen and wonder what happened.
Ageing Security Mechanisms
ASEAN
Groupthink is dangerous
Red team: someone who is there to challenge you all the time
View of the Future
Rules-based international order is under pressure
Key international institutions are struggling to forge consensus on a range of trans-boundary
issues
Economic weight is shifting
New military technologies are emerging and the threat of proliferation
NZ
find more resources at oneclass.com
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Coral Bell; 2 great civilisations of the non-west - Indian, Chinese, and Islamic - are demanding
their place in the international community
Little difficulty with India and China
Intractable problems finding a place for Islam in current international order
Paul Kennedy; the rise and fall of great powers is ultimately detrimental by the material
resources at their disposal
States with the ability to maintain a balance of military and economic strength were best
able to maintain their power
Philip Bobbitt
Essential ideas that govern statecraft must change
Advances in international telecommunications, rapid computation and weapons of mass
destruction
The change in statecraft
David Kilcullen
We are engaged in a war with a 'Global Islamic Insurgency' compromised of a 'Global Islamic
Insurgency' who are seeking a Caliphate with Sharia Law as its foundation
Emerging Themes
Is there a place for Islam?
Its about economics
Technology matters
Military power is important
There has been a loss in state power
Which ideology wins?
Terrorism
We do not comprehend them or what they want
Predominantly about the Caliphate and Religion
We are not directing out efforts on a strategic level
State sponsored terrorism will remain
The middle east is ground zero for terrorism although Africa is close, as is the Southern
Philippines
Terrorists think in God time- have patience
Terrorists readily take up new technologies and their adaption cycle will increase
The internet is wide open
Terrorists will be home-grown and work within our security structures and organisations
Terrorists will increasingly operate independently of nation states with an agenda
They will decentralise their networks and apply considerable security through cellular
devices
Search for novel and increasing ways to
Obama
9/11 and the War on Terror
Emphasised the real threat was from radicalised individuals
Persistent targeted efforts
Changing Nature
find more resources at oneclass.com
find more resources at oneclass.com
Document Summary
Characterised by a complex and dynamic mix of continuing and emerging challenges and opportunities. The problems of europe and the middle east. When it comes to the future, there are three kinds of people: those who let it happen, make it happen and wonder what happened. Red team: someone who is there to challenge you all the time. Key international institutions are struggling to forge consensus on a range of trans-boundary issues. New military technologies are emerging and the threat of proliferation. Coral bell; 2 great civilisations of the non-west - indian, chinese, and islamic - are demanding their place in the international community. Intractable problems finding a place for islam in current international order. Paul kennedy; the rise and fall of great powers is ultimately detrimental by the material resources at their disposal. States with the ability to maintain a balance of military and economic strength were best able to maintain their power.
