8246 Lecture 3: Lecture 3 - Professor Peter Leahy
5 Jun 2018
School
Department
Course
Professor
National Security – Lecture 3
The Future Security Environment
• The future security environment is fluid and characterised by a complex and dynamic
mix of continuing and emerging challenged and opportunities;
o New threats and challenges
o Austerity
o Elections
o Rise of China - China Seas
o Fundamentalism in Pakistan
o Terrorism
o The problems of Europe and the Middle East
o Protectionism and nationalism
o The Caliphate
o American Leadership
Looking Out 50 Years
• State versus communities
• Market states
• New threats and challenges
• Changing nature of the state
• Global problems
• Human security
• United Nations
2018 Predictions - Nostradamus
1. WW3 and it will last for a period of 27 years.
2. Major eruption of Mt Vesuvius
3. Terrible earthquake
4. Comet or asteroid strike
5. Economic collapse
6. Humans will live to be over 200
Old Moore's Almanac
• Volcanoes, ferocious weather, earthquakes, storms, hurricanes, floods, worst monsoons
ever.
• Scientology will face serious hurdles and scandals in Ireland.
• Wildfires in Australia
• Kim Jong-Un is at risk from an inside job
• China and India squabble
• Syria will split
• US and Japan strengthen their alliance
• Italian economic woes
• Iceland - a volcanic eruption, affecting Norway
• Seismic activity for Australia and New Zealand
• Nasty new super bug for 2018
• Trump's approval rating will continue to rise.
• Long term, Trump's health is not stable. US citizens may be stuck with Mike Pence as
President.
Science and Astrology
• Invisibility cloak
• Download brain onto computer
• Rise of global machine dictator
• Brain chips
• Genetically engineered teddy bear
• Human race to split into two species.
Security in 2050
• Flexibility
• Adaptability
• Agility
• Resilience
• Options
View of the Future
• The next 25 years are likely to be more challenging than the 25 years just past.
• The rules-based international order is under pressure.
• Key international institutions are struggling to forge consensus on a range of trans-
boundary issues.
• Economic weight is shifting.
• New military technologies are emerging and the threat of proliferation is growing.
• Terrorism is a continuing challenge to state authority.
• Unlikely to face a direct military threat over the next 25 years (ICBM).
• Increased pressure on maritime resources and an increased risk of illegal migration are
likely.
NZ View of the Future
• The outlook for the South Pacific is one of fragility.
• The resilience of Pacific Island states and the effectiveness of regional institutions will
remain under pressure.
• Australia will remain our most important security partner.
• New Zealand and Australia will continue to play a leadership role in the region, acting
as a trusted friend to our South Pacific neighbours.
• The United States is likely to remain the pre-eminent military power for the next 25
years, but its relative technological and military edge will diminish.
• Tension related to the Korean Peninsula, Taiwan and the South China Sea will
continue, as will pressure points in South and Southeast Asia.
• Security structures in the Asia-Pacific region will continue to evolve.
• The Middle East will remain a region of instability.
Emerging Themes
• Is there a place for Islam
• It's about economics stupid
• Technology matters
• Military power is important
• There has been a loss of state power
• Which "ism" wins - liberal parliamentarianism, fascism, socialism, communism,
capitalism
Document Summary
Looking out 50 years: state versus communities, market states, new threats and challenges, changing nature of the state, global problems, human security, united nations. 2018 predictions - nostradamus: ww3 and it will last for a period of 27 years, major eruption of mt vesuvius, terrible earthquake, comet or asteroid strike, economic collapse, humans will live to be over 200. Iceland - a volcanic eruption, affecting norway: seismic activity for australia and new zealand, nasty new super bug for 2018, trump"s approval rating will continue to rise, long term, trump"s health is not stable. Us citizens may be stuck with mike pence as. Invisibility cloak: download brain onto computer, rise of global machine dictator, brain chips, genetically engineered teddy bear, human race to split into two species. Security in 2050: flexibility, adaptability, agility, resilience, options. Increased pressure on maritime resources and an increased risk of illegal migration are likely.
