PSCI 3328 Chapter 1: Reading- Peace through Insecurity
Document Summary
Paying attention to the incentives and constraints of leaders in their decisions about international conflict. Article attempts to fill gaps by looking at how leaders" incentives to remain in power influence and are influenced by international conflict behavior and how domestic political institutions bear on that reciprocal relationship. Diversionary war says that leaders become more likely to initiate conflict when they face a higher risk of losing office. Theoretical arguments for why reciprocal relationship should exist between probability of losing office and international conflict. Contrary to diversionary war theory, results show that an increase in the risk of losing office makes leaders less likely to initiate a crisis. And increase in the risk of an international crisis makes leaders more likely to lose office: as risk of crisis increases, a leader"s probability of losing office increases. Democracies are overall less likely to initiate a crisis because of the domestic political insecurity of democratic leaders.
