FNCE 239 Chapter Notes - Chapter 3: Value Investing, Financial Adviser

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Everything happens because everyone is incorporating all the facts. Present discounted value = the value of any investment (i. e. corporate stock) = public"s expected present interpretation of future value. Stocks pay dividends o: efficient market theory: the price represents future dividends, the price of a stock = ex-post rational price (what the stock market would be worth if people really knew the future) Shiller"s view: believes the stock market shows repeated bubbles (1920"s, 1950/60"s which burst in 1974) divided by the expected return o. S&p dividends have been growing consistently since 1871, but stock prices haven"t been growing very much to reflect this: the present value models don"t have to have one discount rate. It can have a discount rate that depends on interest rates or a stochastic discount factor: emh doesn"t say that the stock market is unforecastable. There is no evidence to support the emh!

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