PSY BEH 11B Chapter Notes - Chapter 9.2-9.4: Keith Holyoak, Affective Forecasting, Utility
10 Nov 2015
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Drawing implications from our beliefs / decision making: choosing. Judgment: drawing conclusions from experience: directed thinking: thinking aimed at a particular goal, the ways people draw conclusions or make decisions, contents of thought and the processes. Judgment: the process of extrapolating from evidence to draw conclusions: routinely rely on judgment to each beyond evidence and make forecasts. The availability heuristic: conclusions should rest on patterns of observations, based on one experience is risky: may have been a fluke or atypical, want a summary of multiple experiences, consistent pattern. Friendships break up over concerns over fairness. Uniformity allows to extrapolate from experiences: man who or woman who argument. Willingness to generalize from a single case: reliance on representative heuristic can render warnings irrelevant. Prison guard, extreme views on prison system: participant"s opinion. Is the use of the shortcuts inevitable: sometimes we rely on judgment heuristics and sometimes we don"t.
