SCM 303 Chapter Notes - Chapter 4: Delphi Method, Time Series, Exponential Smoothing
Document Summary
Forecast: an estimate of the future level of some variable. Common variables that are forecasted include: demand levels, supply levels, and prices: demand forecasts, supply forecasts, price forecasts. Methods: quantitative forecasting models: forecasting models that use measurable, historical data to generate forecasts. Casual models: qualitative forecasting: forecasting techniques based on intuition or informed opinion. Techniques used when data are scarce, not available, or irrelevant. Moving average model: time series forecasting model that derives a forecast by taking an average of recent demand values: also known as the smoothing model. Weighted moving average model: a form of the moving average model that allows the actual weights applied to past observations to differ. Exponential smoothing model: special form of the moving average model in which the forecast for the next period is calculated as the weighted average of the current period"s actual value and forecast. Adjusted exponential smoothing model: expanded version of the exponential smoothing model that includes a trend adjustment factor.
