ADMS 2320 Chapter Notes - Chapter 6: Mutual Fund, Posterior Probability, Sample Space

• School: York University
• Department: Administrative Studies
• Course: ADMS 2320
• Professor: N A

Document Summary

Eg. flipping a coin(heads or tails), record test marks(#s from 1 to 100), measure time to assemble a computer(0+) To determine the probability we need to define and list the possible outcome first. Build an exhaustive list o all possible outcomes. List of outcomes that meets these 2 conditions are called sample space. Objective to determine p(a), the probability that event a will occur. Probability should be in between 0 and 1. Assign probabilities based on a degree of belief. When p(a and b)= 0 -> there is no interaction, they are mutually exclusive. P(a1)= p(a1 and b1)+ p(a1 and b2)= 0. 11+0. 29= 0. 4, 40% P(a2)= p(a2 and b1)+ p(a2 and b2)= 0. 06+0. 54= 0. 6, 60% or. P(a2)= 1- p(a1) also = 1-0. 4= 0. 6 (because p(a1) and p(a2) should sum up to 1) P(b1)= p(a1 and b1)+ p(a2 and b1)= 0. 11+0. 06= 0. 17, 17% P(b2)= p(a1 and b2)+ p(a2 and b2)= 0. 29+0. 54= 0. 83, 83% or.