EC223 Chapter Notes - Chapter 6: Interest Rate Risk, Liquidity Premium, Risk Premium

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Chapter 6 the risk and term structure of interest rates. A bond"s risk of default influences its interest rate. It"s when a bond issuer is unable to make interest payments when promised or pay off the face value of the bond. Bond with no risk is a default-free bond like a canadian government bond. The range between interest rates on bonds with default risk and default-free bonds is called the risk premium, and indicates how much additional interest people must earn in order to be willing to hold that risky bond. ***relation between corporate bonds and boc bonds - ***sa on final exam. For example, if the default risk of corporate bonds increase, the demand goes down, pushing interest up (price down) and the bond of canadian bonds (alternative) will go up, pushing interest down (price up). A bond with default risk will always have a positive risk premium and an increase in default risk will raise the risk premium.

Related Questions

Market Analysis Market Participants Market participants act as if they are rational, self-interested, and forward-looking. For example, financial managers try to maximize the present value of profits for their particular companies, rather than ignore future values. Companies pursue many goals, but it is a financial mistake for managers to pursue any goal that conflicts with the primary goal of maximizing their firm's profits. Decentralized decision making by individual market participants is more economically efficient that centralized decision making by government policymakers. For example, it is more economically efficient to have financial managers obtain financing for their particular companies than to have government obtain it. A high degree of competition among market participants is the most economically efficient disciplining mechanism. For example, highly competitive financial markets discipline financial managers to pay fair market interest rates on the debt securities issued by their particular companies. The market system of prices is the most economically efficient allocative mechanism. For example, it is more economically efficient to distribute a firm's corporate stock to those buyers who are willing and able to pay the market price of the stock than to have the government distribute the stock. It is economically efficient for market participants to buy low and sell high globally. For example, it is economically efficient for U.S. firms to sell their financial securities to the highest bidders, no matter where they live in the world economy. Market imperfections can create considerable risk to market participants. For example, because of market imperfections, firms operating in the international financial markets encounter foreign exchange rate risk, political risk, interest rate risk, and default risk. Consumer Sovereignty The principle of consumer sovereignty tells us that by making their dollar votes, consumers indirectly determine the quantity and quality of products that firms will produce. For example, it is not economically efficient for financial managers to obtain more financing for their particular firms than is needed for their firms to produce the profit-maximizing level of output demanded by consumers. Market Economy A highly competitive market economy is largely self-regulating, in the absence of substantial market imperfections, in that economic conditions cannot be substantially improved by government regulation or other types of government intervention beyond laissez-faire policies. For example, if a firm's corporate stock is overvalued by a market economy, market forces will tend to drive down the value of the stock to a market price at which it is neither overvalued nor undervalued. As if by an invisible hand, highly competitive market forces will tend to create a harmony of interests among individual market participants, in the absence of substantial market imperfections. Consequently, the interests of shareholders and other stakeholders are compatible. For example, in trying to maximize profits, firms produce employment, income, consumer products, and wealth for households, as well as tax revenue for government, which helps maximize consumer utility and maximize social welfare. In a market economy, resources, products, and assets flow to their highest valued uses among alternative uses. For example, the shares of firms' corporate stocks will be acquired by those market participants who most highly value them, as indicated by the fact that they are willing to pay the most to acquire them. The efficient economic role of government is limited to Laissez-Faire ("hands off") policies, which create very little intervention in a market economy. For example, government regulations of banking and securities industries to maintain healthy, reasonably profitable, consumer-oriented financial markets would not be needed in a highly competitive market economy in the absence of substantial market imperfections. In a market economy, it is economically efficient for each market participant to specialize according to comparative advantage in producing what they can produce relatively better than other market participants, rather than produce all the outputs they can produce absolutely better than others. For example, it is economically efficient for people who are relatively better at being financial managers than others, to specialize in financial management even if they are absolutely better than others in doing many other types of work. If all labor were allocated to its comparative advantage, then no possible reallocation of labor would exist that could increase the rate of return to labor (i.e., the wage). There is no such thing as a free lunch, because all resources, products, and assets in a market economy are scarce. For example, current federal government budget deficits are not free to current market participants in that the deficits must be financed by future tax increases and/or future decreases in government spending and/or future inflation. For additional information on the Market Economy click here. Marks, R. E. (2006, December). There Is No Such Thing As Free Lunch. Australian Journal of Management. 31(2). 1-7. Financial Decisions An efficient financial decision, practice, transaction, or condition is one that is optimal -- meaning best; it cannot be improved, from society's perspective. If there is some profitable way to improve some business practice that would benefit society, that practice is somewhat inefficient. Any change in a financial decision, practice, transaction, or condition that improves society is an efficiency improvement. For example, it is an efficiency improvement for a business to cut production costs by reducing waste (e.g., by reducing spending on unprofitable activity. A financial decision, practice, transaction, or condition is fair-- meaning just or equitable, if the financial benefits are distributed to those involved in proportion to how much they each voluntarily contributed to produce those benefits. For example, a financial practice that discriminates against some people on the basis of race, age, gender, nationality, or religion is unfair. For example, an unethical business practice is unfair. For additional information relating to Market Analysis and fair financial decisions, click on the following: Teaching Ethical Economic Practices to Business Managers. Johnston, C. (2009, October). The Proceedings of the Annual Conference of The International Academy of Business and Economics. Fairness is a necessary condition, but not a sufficient condition, for efficiency. All efficient financial practices are fair, but some fair practices may still fail to be efficient. For example, embezzling company funds is an unfair and inefficient, criminal financial activity. As another example, an ethical business practice that could be improved is fair but not efficient. Opportunity Cost Principle Opportunity cost principle: The efficient measure of the cost of any allocation of resources, products, money income, wealth, or time is its opportunity cost -- the value of the next best use. The opportunity cost of how one uses his or her resources is the value of the highest valued alternative use. The opportunity cost of one investment is the expected return on the next best investment available to the firm. For example, the opportunity cost of a firm using some of its profits to pay dividends to its stockholders would be the present value of future income those profits could have earned if invested in the firm's highest valued investment project.

Discussion Questions These questions stem from the Class Discussion Questions you will be anwering in the Discussion Board. Think about the questions and how they relate to the financial management principles above.

2. Applications: State the financial management principle that appears to be violated in each of the following cases and explain how it is violated:

(a) A corporation is maximizing sales growth and the price of its corporate stock is falling.

(b) A highly paid financial manager in the auto industry quit his job to set up his own small auto repair shop, which is expected to incur a loss for the first three years then earn normal profits.

1. Why Niall Ferguson thought that the expansionary fiscal policy (or government deficit) could produce crowding-out effect? You can explain by using the IS-LM model or you can use the logic of loanable funds theory

Answer: Ferguson believes that an increase in the government deficit could produce a crowding-out-effect. First, I will touch base on fiscal policy. Well, what is it? Basically, it adjusts the nationâs spending amount which increases the economyâs deficit to close a recessionary gap, which therefore increases the the demand for loans, meaning people want to borrow money. An increase in demand for loans leads to an increase in interest rates. Higher interest rates lead to a decrease in investment and interest-sensitive consumer spending, so both C and I decrease. Thatâs what the crowding-out-effect is, the decrease in investment due to higher interest rates.

>in Deficit = >in Demand for Loans = >in interest rates =

The government speeds up the economy by deficit spending, they crowd out consumers and investors with high interest rates. So what this means is that the government is attempting to help the economy but it is actually hurting the economy. The reason why I think Ferguson believes this is because of what he says in his debate at the New York Review of Books, that âyou canât be both a monetarist and a Keynesian simultaneouslyâat least I canât see how you can, because if the aim of the monetarist policy is to keep interest rates down, to keep liquidity high, the effect of the Keynesian policy must be to drive interest rates up.â He continues on in the interview to say that the Fed has minted out a fresh $1.75 billion in bonds and that no one is going to buy them. Driving up bonds will increase interest rates which increases mortgage rates which is why he basically doesnât agree with the Keynesian theory.

2. Why Paul Krugman thinks that Niall Ferguson was wrong and thought that government deficit could not produce a crowding-out effect? In other words, please explain Krugman's Liquidity trap .

Answer: To start I think Krugman believes that the Fiscal policy is effective. It is effective when the Liquidity-Money (LM) curve is horizontal. It creates the crowding in effect. The supply of money is constant so it creates money demanded to be interest inelastic, meaning it doesnât change. So if the government wishes to stimulate the economy, it leaves interest rates at a constant rate, and an increase in investment and saving, therefore helping the economy close the gap on a recession. There is an indifference between money and bonds so this makes fiscal policy effective. So then we get into a monetary expansion, meaning we have an increase in the money supply. Well with the liquidity trap, we get the case that the investment-savings (IS) curve is horizontal. So when the government increases the money supply, investment responds to rapidly changing interest rates, which would decrease the money demanded, making monetary policy effective. But the liquidity trap becomes apparent because interest rates cannot fall below zero percent. This is when monetary policy would become ineffective because interest rates arenât declining meaning investment wouldnât continue. Krugman in his blog basically argues this. He states âMost spectacularly, IS-LM turns out to be very useful for thinking about extreme conditions like the present, in which private demand has fallen so far that the economy remains depressed even at a zero interest rate.â He sums up his argument for the liquidity trap and explains his logic behind the investment-savings, liquidity-money curve, and that is why he disagrees with Ferguson.

3. In the discussion, other discussants such as George Soros and Robin Wells pointed out some interesting issues. Please provide at least one thing that you agree and one thing that you disagree. Discuss in details why you think so.

Answer: One thing I found interesting was George Soroâs point in the debate in the New York review of books. He states âThe other feature is that the financial system collapsed of its own weight. That contradicted the prevailing view about financial markets, namely that they tend toward equilibrium, and that equilibrium is disturbed by extraneous forces, outside shocks. Those disturbances were supposed to occur in a random fashion. Markets were seen basically as self-correcting. That paradigm has proven to be false. So we are dealing not only with the collapse of a financial system, but also with the collapse of a worldview.â He continues to mention how Obama has 2 problems he has to face and how people who are viewing this crisis the same as the previous financial crisis, are making a huge mistake. To explain he states this: âBut when you have a collapse of credit thereâs only one source of credit that is still credible, and thatâs the state: the Federal Reserve and the Treasury. Then you have actually to inject a lot more leverage and money into the economy; you have to print money as fast as you can, expand the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve, increase the national debt. And that is, in fact, what has been done, which is the right thing to do. But then once this policy is successful, you have to rein in the money supply as fast as you can.â I think Soro is agreeing with Krugman and the monetary policy of pumping money into the economy. It will raise the money supply which eventually is left for us to capitalize on supply and let our GDP. Now I find this interesting because he is also agreeing with Krugmanâs IS-LM model, and later on, we come to find out that even Ferguson had come to an agreement with Krugmanâs points, with the exception being that the United States was a powerhouse, and therefore the European Union would eventually see its downfall.

Please make comments to the answer of discussion I provided above(at least 300 words total). And you can start with "I agree with you on some points... But I disagree with you on some points".

TRUE / FALSE

1. True False In the aggregate expenditures model presented in the textbook,

investment is assumed to rise with increases in real GDP and fall with decreases in real GDP.

2. True False When C + I_g = GDP in a private closed economy, S = I_g and there are no unplanned changes in inventories.

3. True False The risk-free interest rate is the rate on long-term U.S. government bonds.

4. True False Bond prices and interest rates are directly or positively related.

5. True False The public debt is the accumulation of all deficits and surpluses that have occurred through time.

6. True False The M₂ money supply may be larger or smaller than the M₁ money supply depending on the size of small-denominated time deposit balances and Money Market Mutual Fund balances held by individuals.

7. True False Excess reserves are the amount by which required reserves exceed actual reserves.

8. True False The public debt is held as Treasury bills, Treasury notes, Treasury bonds, and U.S. savings bonds.

9. True False The equilibrium price level and equilibrium level of real GDP occur at the intersection of the aggregate demand curve and the aggregate supply curve.

10. True False Investment is highly stable; it increases over time at a very steady rate.

MULTIPLE CHOICE

11. A recessionary expenditure gap is:

A. the amount by which the full-employment GDP exceeds the level of aggregate expenditures.

B. the amount by which equilibrium GDP falls short of the full-employment GDP.

C. the amount by which investment exceeds saving at the full-employment GDP.

D. the amount by which aggregate expenditures exceed the full-employment level of GDP.

12. The multiplier effect indicates that:

A. a decline in the interest rate will cause a proportionately larger increase in investment.

B. a change in spending will change aggregate income by a larger amount.

C. a change in spending will increase aggregate income by the same amount.

D. an increase in total income will generate a larger change in aggregate expenditures.

13. Which one of the following is true about the U.S. Federal Reserve System?

There are 12 regional Federal Reserve Banks.

B. The head of the U.S. Treasury also chairs the Federal Reserve Board.

C. There are 14 members of the Federal Reserve Board.

D. The Open Market Committee is smaller in size than the Federal Reserve Board.

14. If the nominal interest rate is 18 percent and the real interest rate is 6 percent, the inflation rate is:

A. 18 percent.

B. 24 percent.

C. 12 percent.

D. 6 percent.

15.

Refer to the above diagram for a private closed economy. The equilibrium level of GDP is:

A. $400.

B. $300.

C. $200.

D. $100.

16. Which of the following represents the most expansionary fiscal policy?

A. a $10 billion tax cut

B. a $10 billion increase in government spending

C. a $10 billion tax increase

D. a $10 billion decrease in government spending

17.

Refer to the above table. The economy shown is a:

A. private economy.

B. private open economy.

C. mixed closed economy.

D. mixed open economy.

18. Currency held in the vault of First National Bank is:

A. counted as part of M₁.

B. counted as part of M₂, but not M₁.

C. only counted as part of M₁ if it was deposited into a checking account.

D. not counted as part of the money supply.

19. If the dollar appreciates relative to foreign currencies, we would expect:

A. the multiplier to decrease.

B. the country's exports and imports to both fall.

C. the country's net exports to rise.

D. the country's net exports to fall.

20. The most important determinant of consumption and saving is the:

A. level of bank credit.

B. level of income.

C. interest rate.

D. price level.

21. The multiple by which the commercial banking system can increase the supply of money on the basis of each dollar of excess reserves is equal to:

A. the reciprocal of the required reserve ratio.

B. 1 minus the required reserve ratio.

C. the reciprocal of the income velocity of money.

D. 1/MPS.

22. Which one of the following would not shift the aggregate demand curve?

A. a change in the price level

B. depreciation of the international value of the dollar

C. a decline in the interest rate at each possible price level

D. an increase in personal income tax rate

23. The cyclically-adjusted budget tells us:

A. that in a full-employment economy the Federal budget should be in balance.

B. that tax revenues should vary inversely with GDP.

C. what the size of the Federal budget deficit or surplus would be if the economy was at full

employment.

D. the actual budget deficit or surplus realized in any given year.

24. The aggregate supply curve:

A. is explained by the interest rate, real-balances, and foreign purchases effects.

B. gets steeper as the economy moves from the top of the curve to the bottom of the curve.

C. shows the various amounts of real output that businesses will produce at each price level.

D. is downsloping because real purchasing power increases as the price level falls.

25.

Refer to the above diagram. If the equilibrium price level is P₁, then:

A. aggregate demand is AD₂.

B. the equilibrium output level is Q₃.

C. the equilibrium output level is Q₂.

D. producers will supply output level Q₁

26. Discretionary fiscal policy refers to:

A. any change in government spending or taxes that destabilizes the economy.

B. the authority that the President has to change personal income tax rates.

C. intentional changes in taxes and government expenditures made by Congress to stabilize the economy.

D. the changes in taxes and transfers that occur as GDP changes.

27.

Refer to the above diagram. Which tax system has the most built-in stability?

A. T₄

B. T₃

C. T₂

D. T₁

28.

Refer to the given graph. A shift of the consumption schedule from C₁ to C₂ might be caused by a(n):

A.	recession.

B.	wealth effect of an increase in stock market prices.

C.	increase in income tax rates.

D.	increase in saving.

29. When a bank loan is repaid the supply of money:

A. is constant, but its composition will have changed.

B. is decreased.

C. is increased.

D. may either increase or decrease.

30. The Federal budget deficit is found by:

A. subtracting government tax revenues plus government borrowing from government spending in a particular year.

B. subtracting government tax revenues from government spending in a particular year.

C. cumulating the differences between government spending and tax revenues over all years since the nation's founding.

D. subtracting government revenues from the noninvestment-type government spending in a particular year.

31.

Refer to the above information. Money supply M₁ for this economy is:

A. $ 60.

B. $ 70.

C. $ 130.

D. $ 140.

32. Which of the following statements is true as a result of Federal Reserve efforts to rescue the financial industry from the financial crisis of 2007 and 2008?

From February 2008, to May 2009, the Fed oversaw the consolidation of 20 major financial institutions into fewer than a dozen.

B. From March 2008, to February 2009, the Fed experienced a 50 percent decline in the value of assets held.

C. From February 2008, to March 2009, Fed assets more than doubled to nearly $2 trillion.

D. From February 2008, to March 2009, Fed lending caused the U.S. public debt to rise by over $1 trillion.

33. Which of the following is the basic economic policy function of the Federal Reserve Banks?

holding the deposits or reserves of commercial banks

B. acting as fiscal agents for the Federal government

C. controlling the supply of money

D. the collection or clearing of checks among commercial banks

34. In a fractional reserve banking system:

A. bank panics cannot occur.

B. the monetary system must be backed by gold.

C. banks can create money through the lending process.

D. the Federal Reserve has no control over the amount of money in circulation.

35.

Refer to the diagram that applies to a private closed economy. The APC is equal to 1 at income level:

36. Assume the Continental National Bank's balance statement is as follows:

Assuming a legal reserve ratio of 20 percent, how much in excess reserves would this bank have after a check for $10,000 was drawn and cleared against it?

A. $ 3,000

B. $ 24,000

C. $ 6,000

D. $ 16,000

37. Answer the question on the basis of the following table for a commercial bank or thrift:

Refer to the above table. When the legal reserve ratio is 25 percent, the excess reserves of this single bank are:

A. $0.

B. $1,000.

C. $5,000.

D. $30,000.

38. Which of the following is a tool of monetary policy?

A. open market operations

B. changes in banking laws

C. changes in tax rates

D. changes in government spending

39. An increase in nominal GDP increases the demand for money because:

A. interest rates will rise.

B. more money is needed to finance a larger volume of transactions.

C. bond prices will fall.

D. the opportunity cost of holding money will decline.

40. Answer the next question on the basis of the following table:

At equilibrium in the above market for money, the total amount of money demanded is:

A. $500.

B. $480.

C. $460.

D. $440.

41. For most financial assets investors must be compensated for:

A. non-diversifiable and diversifiable risk.

B. diversifiable risk and time preference.

C. non-diversifiable risk and time preference.

D. non-diversifiable and diversifiable risk, and time preference.

42. Reserves must be deposited in the Federal Reserve Banks by:

A. only commercial banks which are members of the Federal Reserve System.

B. all depository institutions, that is, all commercial banks and thrift institutions.

C. state chartered commercial banks only.

D. federally chartered commercial banks only.

43.

Refer to the diagrams. Assuming a constant price level, an increase in aggregate expenditures from AE₁to AE₂ would:

A.	move the economy from A to C along AD₁.

B.	move the economy from C to A along AD₁.

C.	increase aggregate demand from AD₁ to AD₂.

D.	decrease aggregate demand from AD₂ to AD₁.

44. The discount rate is the interest:

A. rate at which the central banks lend to the U.S. Treasury.

B. rate at which the Federal Reserve Banks lend to commercial banks.

C. yield on long-term government bonds.

D. rate at which commercial banks lend to the public.

45. What concept describes how quickly an investment increases in value when interest is paid not only on the original amount invested, but also on the accumulated interest payments?

A. present value

B. future value

C. compound interest

D. real rate of interest

46. The aggregate demand curve:

A. is upsloping because a higher price level is necessary to make production profitable as production costs rise.

B. is downsloping because production costs decline as real output increases.

C. shows the amount of expenditures required to induce the production of each possible level of real output.

D. shows the amount of real output that will be purchased at each possible price level.

47. The Security Market Line depicts the relationship between the:

A. average expected rate of return on stocks and the average expected rate of return on bonds.

B. average expected rate of return of a financial asset and the discount rate.

C. risk level of a financial asset and the prime interest rate.

D. average expected rate of return and risk level of a financial asset.

48. Arbitrage causes all financial assets:

A. of the same risk level to have the same price.

B. to have the same expected rate of return.

C. to have the same beta.

D. of the same risk level to have the same average expected rate of return.

49.

Refer to the diagrams. The numbers in parentheses after the AD₁, AD₂, and AD₃ labels indicate the levels of investment spending associated with each curve. All figures are in billions. If the money supply is MS₁ and the goal of the monetary authorities is full-employment output Q_f, they should:

A.	increase the money supply from $80 to $100.

B.	increase the money supply from $80 to $120.

C.	maintain the money supply at $80.

D.	decrease the money supply from $80 to $60.

50. Given the expected rate of return on all possible investment opportunities in the economy:

A. an increase in the real rate of interest will reduce the level of investment.

B. a decrease in the real rate of interest will reduce the level of investment.

C. a change in the real interest rate will have no impact on the level of investment.

D. an increase in the real interest rate will increase the level of investment.

END OF THE EXAM

EC223 Chapter Notes - Chapter 6: Interest Rate Risk, Liquidity Premium, Risk Premium

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