Statistical Sciences 2037A/B Chapter Notes - Chapter 16 (continued): Conjunction Fallacy, Representativeness Heuristic

• School: Western University
• Department: Statistical Sciences
• Course: Statistical Sciences 2037A/B
• Professor: Jennifer Waugh

Document Summary

Representativeness heuristic leads people to assign higher probabilities than are warranted to scenarios that are representative of how we imagine things would happen. As a student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and also participated in antinuclear demonstrations. Please check off which of the 2 statements is more probable: a: linda is a bank teller. Intuitive judgements can directly contradict the known laws of probability. Representativeness heuristics can be used to affect judgement by giving detailed scenarios about how an event is unlikely to happen. The representativeness heuristic leads people to ignore information they may have about the likelihood of various outcomes. People tend to have personal probabilities that are unrealistically optimistic and are often overconfident about how likely they are to be right and are reluctant to change their views even when presented with contradictory evidence.