COM 341 Chapter Notes - Chapter 4: Delphi Method, Exponential Smoothing, Average Absolute Deviation

• School: University of Victoria
• Department: Commerce
• Course: COM 341
• Professor: Damali Uzay

Document Summary

What is forecasting: forecasting: the art and science of predicting future events, forecasting may involve taking in account of historical data and intuitive prediction. Intermediate and long-range forecasts deal with more comprehensive issues supporting management decisions: short term forecasting usually employs different methodologies, short range forecasts tend to be more accurate. Forecasting approaches: quantitative forecasts: forecasts that employ mathematical modeling to forecast demand, qualitative forecasts: forecasts that i(cid:374)corporate such factors as the decisio(cid:374) (cid:373)aker"s intuition, emotions, personal experiences, and value system. Na ve approach: simplest way to forecast is to assume the demand in the next period will be equal to demand in the most recent period. Weighted moving averages: uses a number of historical actual data values to generate a forecast. (cid:1856)(cid:1857)(cid:1865)(cid:1866)(cid:1856) (cid:1866) (cid:1868)(cid:1870)(cid:1857)(cid:1874)(cid:1867)(cid:1873)(cid:1871) (cid:1866) (cid:1868)(cid:1857)(cid:1870)(cid:1867)(cid:1856)(cid:1871) (cid:4666)(cid:4666)(cid:1857)(cid:1859) (cid:1872) (cid:1858)(cid:1867)(cid:1870) (cid:1868)(cid:1857)(cid:1870)(cid:1867)(cid:1856) (cid:1866)(cid:4667)(cid:4666)(cid:1830)(cid:1857)(cid:1865)(cid:1866)(cid:1856) (cid:1866) (cid:1868)(cid:1857)(cid:1870)(cid:1867)(cid:1856) (cid:1866)(cid:4667) (cid:1866) (cid:1857)(cid:1859) (cid:1872)(cid:1871) Exponential smoothing: exponential smoothing: a weighted moving average forecasting technique in which data points are weighted by an exponential function.