CCT226H5 Chapter 4: CCT 226 reading: chapter 4 basic probability
15 Oct 2019
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Department
Course
Professor
Chapter 4basic probabiliti foundation for ex
probability distribution intent to purchase
for marketing strategies mathematicalexpectation purchasebehavior
basicprobability concepts binomial possiondistribution
Epc
AEl the extent of sth is likely to occur
numerical value that expresses the ratio between the value sought and
the set of all possible values that could occurs
event sample spaces
outcomes values
sample space all possibleoutcome that produce aresult
zevent subsetof single space
jointevent an event has two or more characteristic excoin
simpleevent one characteristic an outcome that cannot befurther subdivided exidice
complement Aoutcome xpartofevent
mythallynexdysive they cannot occur at thesame
sum
of ex dice 25 4mutually exclusive
bothP41 435 bXi6
collectively exhaustive one of the event must occur
Next 03or less 4or more
x3or less morethan4ix4
1certainevent an event that is sure to occur
ex dicemorethan 0
oimpossibleevent event xchance to happen
dice more than6
Types of probability apriori empirical subjective
Dapriori probability
me 9is the probability of an occurrence is based on having prior knowledge of the outcome
outcome ex 26 black 26 red card black card chance 26
Tszhthat can occur
ew
qually empirical probability xnumber ofway based on ofoutcome
Ybased on observed data Tioncowurhatevent observation satisfy A
ex survey total of posibility don't
know total cone
outcome what
happened
subjective probbability whxenempirical priori
differ from person to person combination individual experience
personal opinion particular situation
summerizing sample space AnB
tabular conoentiggency tables benuinsudai.ES mwyy
oBoA'EIsoD
oneevent 50 zoo
Simple Probability A
probability of occurrence of asimpleeventA
PLA vs eachoutcome are equally likely to occur AUB 350
Xnumber of outcome in which the event occurs PCAorB
pAPlB
Ttotal number of possible outcome it AIBmutuallyexclusive
Joint probability PCA
andBPCAorBPIA 1PCB PLAand B
the probability of an occurrence involving two or more event
Pl
ex coin
Marginal probability
an event consists of aset of joint probabilities
PCA PLA and Bi 1PCA and 132 11PCA and Bk
general addition rule mutuallyexclus
PCA or BePLA 1PCB PCAandB collectively exhaustive
Conditional Probability
Calculating conditional probabilities
conditional
probabilityof the probability of event Agiven info about the
agiven
Bhasoconed occurrence of another event13 zoo
later first too 3
pealBPCAandB pBIA M30.8
PCB PLA too r
Decision tree pLB Tf
alternative contingency table
ex aimIo0pcA
andB200
E
BET Tooo IypcAandB Foo one
Entire buy 50 event
is
hygosegold pea Laggan.iq andB yogpdeopqndgnt
to 1750
but Tooo findepende
50 conditional 650 30
mautualtitiusive probabilities buy OsoPLA andBY x
Independence ppl
who
i
ii
PCA andBPCAIBPCB
multiplication rule for independent events
PCA and BPLA PCB
