PSY 1101 Chapter Notes - Chapter 1: Paul Slovic, James Randi, Hindsight Bias

• School: University of Ottawa
• Department: Psychology
• Course: PSY 1101
• Professor: A L L

Document Summary

Hindsight bias: the tendency to believe, after learning an outcome, that one would have foreseen it (also known as the i-knew-it-all-along phenomenon: developed by psychologists paul slovic and baruch fischhoff (1977) Common sense describes what has happened much more easily than it predicts what will happen. The phenomenon of hindsight bias is widespread, with some 100 studies having observed it. Our everyday thinking is limited not only by our after-the-fact common sense but also by our human tendency to be overly confident. We tend to be more confident that correct. Robert vallone: did a study with university student. Students were 84% confident that they were right, while only 71% of the time were they actually, erred 15% of the time. Hindsight bias and overconfidence often lead is to overestimate our intuition. But scientific inquiry, fed by curious scepticism and by humility can help us sift reality from illusions.