PSYC 331 Chapter Notes - Chapter -: False Positives And False Negatives, Personality Disorder, Risk Management
Document Summary
What types of offenses are typically predicted? predicts how people will act in the future; generally we assess violence or sexual re- offending. Pure subjective, then purely actuarial, then a mixture of the two. Using probability to predict specific behaviours within time-frames. The development team found 12 variables accounted for 45% of variation in recidivism. If many of the risk factors are present it predicts recidivism very well. It was devised in response to recognition that psychopaths are 4x more likely to recidivate. It is a potent predictor and has a correlate r=. 34 on vrag. 75 accuracy; study followed 200 criminals through the system upon release. Criminal history; psychosocial adjustment; spousal assault history; alleged (index) offense. The static 99 and vrag are most effective and unstructured clinical judgement is least effective. Sexual violence: status 99; violence: vrag; any recidivism: empirical actuarial. No; they are all in the same ball park, but the hcr-20 better predicts institutional violence.
