PSY 102 Chapter Notes - Chapter 2: Lake Wobegon, Confirmation Bias, Naturalistic Observation
30 Mar 2017
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Commit to the base rate fallacy: when we neglect to consider base rates. Base rate: how common a behaviour or characteristic is in the population. Estimate the likelihood of an occurrence based on how easily it comes to our minds: cognitive biases: systematic errors in thinking that can lead to confidence in false conclusions, hindsight bias: i knew it all along . Our tendency to overestimate how well we could have successfully forecasted known outcomes: overconfidence: our tendency to overestimate our ability to make correct predictions. High external validity findings are generalizable to the real world. Low internal validity ability to draw cause-and-effect inferences. Ex: most cases of laughter are preceded by quite ordinary comments, speakers laugh more than listeners: case study: studying one or a small number of people, often over an extended period of time. Used to study rare brain damage or mental illness.
