GPHY 314 Chapter Notes - Chapter 8: Radiative Forcing, Emission Intensity, Energy Intensity
29 Dec 2020
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Document Summary
I = total emissions of ghgs into atmosphere: p = population, a = affluence, t = ghg intensity, p x a = ggp, decomposition of emissions into these factors often referred to as ipat relation/kaya. How these factors have changed in the recent past and how they will change in the future: population increased by 80% over past few decades, today increasing by ~200,000 people per day (growth rate approx. 1%/year: affluence strongly determines how many kids a woman has, with poorest countries having highest fertility rates. In future, factors like level of education, rule of law, free trade, and access to technology will be key determining how fast affluence grows. Increases in renewables also expected to reduce carbon intensity: overall, increases in population and affluence have increased faster than ghg intensity has declined, leading to increase in emissions of 75% between 1970-2005.
