PHILOS 2CT3 Chapter Notes - Chapter 10: Intelligence Analysis, Randomness, Scientific Method
14 Nov 2016
School
Department
Course
Professor
Document Summary
Philos 2ct3 chapter 11 notes heuer biases in perception of cause and effect. Judgements about cause and effect are necessary to explain the past, to understand the present and estimate the future. Due to our need to impose order on the environment, we believe we have found causes for things that are actually accidental or random phenomena. People tend to assume that care similar to their effects in the sense that large effects must have large causes. When figuring the cause for behaviour, too much weight is given to personal qualities of the actors and not enough to situational determinants. People per(cid:272)ei(cid:448)e relatio(cid:374)ships that do (cid:374)ot e(cid:454)ist, (cid:271)e(cid:272)ause the(cid:455) do(cid:374)"t u(cid:374)dersta(cid:374)d the kind of info needed to prove a relationship. Several mode of analysis by which one may infer cause and effect. In formal analysis, inferences made through procedures that collectively comprise scientific method: even then causality is not a surety, a hypothesis only accepted when it cannot be rejected.
