MGMT1001 Chapter Individual and Group Decision Making : Week 2 ACT notes
4 May 2018
School
Department
Course
Professor
The$overconfidence$bias:$!"#$%&'$('))$(*+'(,$-"$.'$"/'&0"12*3'1-$*2$,"#$%&'$4%+*15$%$3'0*)*"1$*1$%1$
%&'%$*1$67*07$,"#$7%/'$%$0"1)*3'&%.('$%4"#1-$"2$'89'&*'10'$"&$'89'&-*)':$%13$4"&'$(*+'(,$-"$.'$
"/'&0"12*3'1-:$"&$;0"0+,;$*2$-7'$)#.<'0-$*)$#12%4*(*%&=
The$prior$hypothesis$bias:$ 3'0*)*"1$4%+'&)$6*-7$)-&"15$.'(*'2)$-'13$-"$4%+'$-7'*&$3'0*)*"1)$.%)'3$
"1$-7'*&$.'(*'2)=
Ignoring$randomness$bias>$?%1,$4%1%5'&)$3"1@-$#13'&)-%13$-7'$(%6)$"2$&%13"41'))=
Unrepresentative$sample$bias>$)%49('$)*A'$*)$*49"&-%1-
The$20:20$hindsight$bias>$7*13)*57-$3"')$1"-$'B#%($2"&')*57-=
Decision$Making:$Rational$and$Non@Rational
Decision$vs.$Decision$making:
C'0*)*"1>$D$07"*0'$4%3'$2&"4$7%/*15$%/%*(%.('$%(-'&1%-*/')
C'0*)*"1$?%+*15>$E7'$9&"0'))$"2$*3'1-*2,*15$%13$07"")*15$%(-'&1%-*/'$0"#&)')$"2$%0-*"1
Rational$model$of$decision$making:$D()"$+1"61$%)$-7'$0(%))*0%($4"3'(:$'89(%*1)$7"6$4%1%5'&)$)7"#(3$4%+'$3'0*)*"1)F$*-$%))#4')$
4%1%5'&)$6*(($4%+'$("5*0%($3'0*)*"1)$-7%-$%&'$6*-7*1$-7'$2*&4;)$.')-$*1-'&')-=$
4$steps:
G3'1-*2,$-7'$9&".('4$"&$"99"&-#1*-,
C*%51")*)>$%1%(,A*15$-7'$#13'&(,*15$0%#)')$*1$"&3'&$-"$4%+'$%$07%15'$"&$*49&"/'4'1-$
%=
HI
E7*1+$"2J.&%*1)-"&4$%(-'&1%-*/'$)"(#-*"1)
K49(",'')$6*-7$.&*57-$*3'%)$%&'$%1$'49(",'&;)$5&'%-')-$0"49'-*-*/'$&')"#&0'=$
%=
LI
K/%(#%-'$-7'$%(-'&1%-*/')$%13$07"")'$%$)"(#-*"1
K/%(#%-'$'%07$%(-'&1%-*/'$%00"&3*15$-"$0")-$%13$B#%(*-,$%)$6'(($%)$0"1)*3'&*15$-7'$2"(("6*15$B#')-*"1)>
G)$*-$'-7*0%( M*2$*-$*)1;-$3"1;-$5*/'$*-$%$)'0"13$(""+I
*=
G)$*-$2'%)*.('N M*2$-*4'$*)$)7"&-:$0")-)$%&'$7*57:$-'071"("5,$#1%/%*(%.(':$'-0:$-7'1$*-$*)$1"-I
**=
G)$*-$#(-*4%-'(,$'22'0-*/'N$
***=
%=
OI
G49('4'1-$%13$'/%(#%-'$-7'$07")'1$)"(#-*"1
P%1$.'$)-&%*57-2"&6%&3:$.#-$%()"$3*22*0#(-$)*10'$*-$4%,$-%+'$#9$-"$4"1-7)$-"$0"1)"(*3%-'$3'9%&-4'1-):$%00"#1-*15$
),)-'4):$*1/'1-"&*'):$'-0=$
%=
G1$"&3'&$2"&$*49('4'1-%-*"1$-"$.'$)#00'))2#($,"#$1''3$-"$3"$L$-7*15)>
Q(%1$P%&'2#((,*=
R'$)'1)*-*/'$-"$-7")'$%22'0-'3>$0"1)*3'&$7"6$"-7'&)$4*57-$2''($%."#-$-7'$07%15'=$G-$7'(9)$-"$5*/'$0#)-"4'&)$%13$
'49(",'')$(%-*-#3'$3#&*15$%$07%15'$*1$.#)*1'))')$9&%0-*0')$"&$6"&+*15$%&&%15'4'1-)=$$
**=
.=
SI
Evaluation:$What$if$the$decision$you$made$is$not$working?
T*/'$*-$4"&'$-*4'>$4%+'$)#&'$,"#$5*/'$'49(",'')$%13$0#)-"4'&)$'1"#57$-*4'$-"$5'-$#)'3$-"$-7'$1'6$%0-*"1U
P7%15'$*-$)(*57-(,>$4%+*15$-7'$1'6$%0-*"1)$6%)$-7'$&*57-$-7*15$-"$3":$.#-$1''3)$)"4'$V-6'%+*15V$U
E&,$%1"-7'&$%(-'&1%-*/'>$G2$9(%1$D$*)$1"-$6"&+*15:$)0&%-07$*-$2"&$9(%1$R$"&$PU
W-%&-$"/'&>$G2$1"-$%(-'&1%-*/'$*)$6"&+*15:$,"#$1''3$-"$5"$.%0+$-"$-7'$3&%6*15$."%&3$M$.%0+$-"$)-%5'$H$"2$-7'$3'0*)*"1$4%+*15$
9&"0'))I
U
Limitations$to$the$rational$model:$
G-$*)$9'&)9'0-*/':$*-$3')0&*.')$7"6$4%1%5'&)$%&'$ought -"$4%+'$3'0*)*"1):$1"-$7"6$-7',$actually 4%+'$-7'4=$U
?%+')$7*57(,$3')*&%.('$%))#49-*"1)>$-7%-$4%1%5'&)$7%/'$0"49('-'$*12"&4%-*"1:$%&'$%.('$-"$4%+'$%1$#1'4"-*"1%($%1%(,)*):$
%13$0%1$4%+'$-7'$.')-$3'0*)*"1$2"&$-7'$"&5%1*A%-*"1=$
U
Non@rational$models$of$decision$making:$'89(%*1)$7"6$4%1%5'&)$4%+'$3'0*)*"1)=$E7'$%))#4'$-7%-$3'0*)*"1$4%+*15$*)$%(4")-$
%(6%,)$#10'&-%*1$%13$&*)+,:$4%+*15$*-$3*22*0#(-$2"&$4%1%5'&)$-"$4%+'$-7'$"9-*4%($3'0*)*"1)=$X"1Y&%-*"1%($4'%1)$-7%-$-7'$4"3'()$3"$
1"-$%))#4'$3'0*)*"1)$%&'$5#*3'3$.,$".<'0-*/'$'/*3'10'$-7%-$5*/')$9'&2'0-$*1)*57-$*1-"$-7'$0")-)$%13$.'1'2*-)$"2$%(-'&1%-*/'$%0-*"1)=$
X"1YZ%-*"1%($4"3'()$%&'$3')0&*9-*/'$&%-7'&$-7%1$9&')0&*9-*/':$67*07$4'%1)$-7%-$-7',$3')0&*.'$7"6$4%1%5'&)$%0-#%((,$4%+'$
3'0*)*"1) &%-7'&$-7%1$7"6$-7',$)7"#(3$4%+'$3'0*)*"1)=$
The$three$non@rational$models$are:
W%-*)2*0*15>$4%1%5'&)$)''+$%(-'&1%-*/')$#1-*($-7',$2*13$"1'$-7%-$*)$)%-*)2%0-"&,:$1"-$"9-*4%(=$HI
G10&'4'1-%(>$4%1%5'&)$-%+'$)4%((:$)7"&-$-'&4$)-'9)$-"$%(('/*%-'$-7'$9&".('4:$&%-7'&$-7%1$)-'9)$-7%-$6*(($%00"49(*)7$%$("15$
-'&4$)"(#-*"1=
LI
G1-#*-*"1>$W4%(($'1-&'9&'1'#&)$"2-'1$0%1;-$%22"&3$*1$3'9-7$4%&+'-*15$&')'%&07:$)"$-7',$4%+'$3'0*)*"1)$.%)'3$"1$7#107')=$
E7*)$4'%1)$-7%-$-7',$4%+'$%$07"*0'$6*-7"#-$-7'$#)'$"2$0"1)0*"#)$-7"#57-$"&$("5*0%($*12'&'10'=$
["(*)-*0$7#107>$*)$*1-#*-*"1$-7%-$)-'4)$2&"4$'89'&-*)':$-7*)$4'%1)$-7%-$-7'$9'&)"1$7%)$'89(*0*-$%13$-%0*-$+1"6('35'$
%."#-$%$9'&)"1:$)*-#%-*"1:$"&$3'0*)*"1$"99"&-#1*-,=
%=
D#-"4%-'3$'89'&*'10'>$*)$*1-#*-*"1$.%)'3$"1$2''(*15):$-7'$*1/"(#1-%&,$'4"-*"1%($&')9"1)'$-"$-7'$4%--'&=$.=
OI
Political$decision$making:$'8%4*1')$7"6$9'"9('$4%+'$3'0*)*"1)$67'1$4%1%5'&)$3*)%5&''$"/'&$67%-$)7"#(3$.'$3"1':$%13$*-$
%))#4')$-7%->$
\&5%1*A%-*"1)$%&'$0"49")'3$"2$0"49'-*15$5&"#9)$"2$9'"9('$-7%-$%(($7%/'$-7'*&$"61$%5'13%U
X"1Y&%-*"1%($3'0*)*"1$4%+*15$0"13*-*"1)$9&'/%*(=U
Inspirational$decision$making: 0"10'1-&%-')$"1$*3'1-*2,*15$-7'$0"13*-*"1)$-7%-$%&'$&'B#*&'3$-"$4%+'$%$3'0*)*"1=$D&5#')$-7%-$
3'0*)*"1)$"00#&$67'1$S$*13'9'13'1-$)-&'%4)$"&$0"13*-*"1)$0"4'$-"5'-7'&=$P%(('3$-7'$5%&.%5'$0%1$4"3'($)*10'$*-$3'9*0-)$07"*0'$
"99"&-#1*-*')$%)$.'*15$-7'$5%&.%5'$0%1$*1-"$67*07$9%&-*0*9%1-):$9&".('4):$%13$)"(#-*"1)$%&'$%(($4*8'3$-"5'-7'&$-"$0"4'$#9$6*-7$
3'0*)*"1)=$E7'$S$)-&'%4)$%&'>$
P7"*0'$"99"&-#1*-*')>$4''-*15)$"&$'10"#1-'&)$67'&'$9'"9('$0"4'$-"5'-7'&$-"$4%+'$%$3'0*)*"1=HI
Q%&-*0*9%1-)>$-7'$9&')'10'$"2$9'"9('$6*-7$-7'$&')9"1)*.*(*-,$-"$4%+'$-7'$3'0*)*"1LI
Q&".('4)>$*))#')$-7%-$%&'$&'0"51*A'3$%)$%$9&".('4$-7%-$1''3$%$3'0*)*"1$$OI
W"(#-*"1)>$9"))*.('$*3'%)$"&$*12"&4%-*"1%($-7%-$7'(9$0&%2-$%$3'0*)*"1SI
Evidence$based$decision$making
Evidence$based$management:$-7'$-&%1)(%-*"1$"2$9&*10*9(')$.%)'3$"1$.')-$'/*3'10'$*1-"$"&5%1*A%-*"1%($9&%0-*0':$.&*15*15$
&%-*"1%(*-,$-"$-7'$3'0*)*"1Y4%+*15$9&"0'))=$
Business$Analytics:$*)$-7'$-'&4$#)'3$2"&$)"97*)-*0%-'3$2"&4)$"2$.#)*1'))$3%-%$%1%(,)*)=$Q"-'1-*%((,$%$5&'%-$&')*)-%10'$-"$'/*3'10'$
.%)'3$3'0*)*"1$4%+*15=$K8>$Q"&-2"(*"$%1%(,)*)$67'&'$%1$*1/')-4'1-$%3/*)'&$'/%(#%-')$-7'$&*)+)$"2$/%&*"#)$)-"0+)=$D1"-7'&$'8%49('$*)$
-*4'$)'&*')$2"&'0%)-$67*07$9&'3*0-)$2#-#&'$3%-%$.%)'3$"1$9%--'&1)$"2$7*)-"&*0%($3%-%=$
Three$key$attributes$among$analytics$competitors:
Q&'3*0-*/'$4"3'((*15>$#)')$3%-%$%13$4*1*15$-"$*3'1-*2,$9"-'1-*%($%13$4")-$9&"2*-%.('$0#)-"4'&)=$Q&'3*0-)$2#-#&'$.'7%/*"&$%13$
%1-*0*9%-'$-7'$0"1)'B#'10'$"2$07%15'=$
1)
[%/*15$4#(-*9('$%99(*0%-*"1)>$%1%(,-*0)$0"49'-*-"&)$3"1@-$5%*1$%3/%1-%5'$.,$7%/*15$"1'$+*(('&$%99:$.#-$&%-7'&$4#(-*9('$
%99(*0%-*"1)$-7%-$)#99"&-$-7'$4#(-*9('$9%&-)$"2$-7'$.#)*1'))=$
2)
W#99"&-$2&"4$-7'$-"9>$%$0"49%1,6*3'$'4.&%0'$"2$%1%(,-*0)$*49'()$07%15')$*1$0#(-#&':$9&"0')):$.'7%/*"&:$%13$)+*(()$2"&$*-)$
4%1,$'49(",'')=$
3)
Big$data:$)-"&')$"2$3%-%$)"$(%&5'$-7%-$-7'$0"1/'1-*"1%($3%-%.%)'$4%1%5'4'1-$),)-'4)$0%11"-$7%13('$-7':$)"$/'&,$)"97*)-*0%-'3$
%1%(,)*)$)"2-6%&'$%13$)#9'&0"49#-*15$('/'($7%&36%&'$*)$&'B#*&'3=$
Decision$making$style: &'2('0-)$-7'$0"4.*1%-*"1$"2$7"6$%1$*13*/*3#%($9'&0'*/')$%13$&')9"13)$-"$*12"&4%-*"1=$D$4"3'($6%)$
3'/'("9'3$.%)'3$"1$-7'$*3'%$-7%-$)-,(')$/%&,$%("15$-6"$3*22'&'1-$3*4'1)*"1)>$/%(#'$"&*'1-%-*"1:$%13$-"('&%10'$2"&$%4.*5#*-,=$
Value$orientation>$&'2('0-)$-7'$'8-'1-$-"$67*07$%$9'&)"1$2"0#)')$"1$'*-7'&$-%)+$%13$-'071*0%($0"10'&1):$"&$9'"9('$%13$)"0*%($
0"10'&1)$67'1$4%+*15$3'0*)*"1)=$K8>$)"4'$9'"9('$%&'$/'&,$-%)+$"&*'1-'3$%-$6"&+$%13$3"$1"-$9%,$4#07$%--'1-*"1$-"$9'"9('$
*))#'):$67'&'%)$"-7'&)$%&'$-7'$"99")*-'=$
U
Tolerance$for$ambiguity>$E7'$'8-'1-$-"$67*07$%$9'&)"1$7%)$%$7*57$1''3$2"&$)-�-#&'$"&$0"1-&"($*1$-7'*&$(*/')=$W"4'$9'"9('$
3')*&'$%$("-$"2$)-�-#&'$*1$-7'*&$(*/')$]$("6$-"('&%10'$-"$%4.*5#*-,:$%13$2*13$%4.*5#"#)$)*-#%-*"1)$)-&'))2#(=$$
U
Z*)+$9&"9'1)*-,>$-7'$6*((*151'))$-"$5%4.('$"&$#13'&-%+'$&*)+$2"&$-7'$9"))*.*(*-,$"2$5%*1*15$%1$*10&'%)'3$9%,"22=$
Week$2$ACT$notes
^&*3%,:$L$?%&07$L_H`
L>Oa$94
The$overconfidence$bias:$!"#$%&'$('))$(*+'(,$-"$.'$"/'&0"12*3'1-$*2$,"#$%&'$4%+*15$%$3'0*)*"1$*1$%1$
%&'%$*1$67*07$,"#$7%/'$%$0"1)*3'&%.('$%4"#1-$"2$'89'&*'10'$"&$'89'&-*)':$%13$4"&'$(*+'(,$-"$.'$
"/'&0"12*3'1-:$"&$;0"0+,;$*2$-7'$)#.<'0-$*)$#12%4*(*%&=
The$prior$hypothesis$bias:$ 3'0*)*"1$4%+'&)$6*-7$)-&"15$.'(*'2)$-'13$-"$4%+'$-7'*&$3'0*)*"1)$.%)'3$
"1$-7'*&$.'(*'2)=
Ignoring$randomness$bias>$?%1,$4%1%5'&)$3"1@-$#13'&)-%13$-7'$(%6)$"2$&%13"41'))=
Unrepresentative$sample$bias>$)%49('$)*A'$*)$*49"&-%1-
The$20:20$hindsight$bias>$7*13)*57-$3"')$1"-$'B#%($2"&')*57-=
Decision$Making:$Rational$and$Non@Rational
Decision$vs.$Decision$making:
C'0*)*"1>$D$07"*0'$4%3'$2&"4$7%/*15$%/%*(%.('$%(-'&1%-*/')
C'0*)*"1$?%+*15>$E7'$9&"0'))$"2$*3'1-*2,*15$%13$07"")*15$%(-'&1%-*/'$0"#&)')$"2$%0-*"1
Rational$model$of$decision$making:$D()"$+1"61$%)$-7'$0(%))*0%($4"3'(:$'89(%*1)$7"6$4%1%5'&)$)7"#(3$4%+'$3'0*)*"1)F$*-$%))#4')$
4%1%5'&)$6*(($4%+'$("5*0%($3'0*)*"1)$-7%-$%&'$6*-7*1$-7'$2*&4;)$.')-$*1-'&')-=$
4$steps:
G3'1-*2,$-7'$9&".('4$"&$"99"&-#1*-,
C*%51")*)>$%1%(,A*15$-7'$#13'&(,*15$0%#)')$*1$"&3'&$-"$4%+'$%$07%15'$"&$*49&"/'4'1-$
%=
HI
E7*1+$"2J.&%*1)-"&4$%(-'&1%-*/'$)"(#-*"1)
K49(",'')$6*-7$.&*57-$*3'%)$%&'$%1$'49(",'&;)$5&'%-')-$0"49'-*-*/'$&')"#&0'=$
%=
LI
K/%(#%-'$-7'$%(-'&1%-*/')$%13$07"")'$%$)"(#-*"1
K/%(#%-'$'%07$%(-'&1%-*/'$%00"&3*15$-"$0")-$%13$B#%(*-,$%)$6'(($%)$0"1)*3'&*15$-7'$2"(("6*15$B#')-*"1)>
G)$*-$'-7*0%( M*2$*-$*)1;-$3"1;-$5*/'$*-$%$)'0"13$(""+I
*=
G)$*-$2'%)*.('N M*2$-*4'$*)$)7"&-:$0")-)$%&'$7*57:$-'071"("5,$#1%/%*(%.(':$'-0:$-7'1$*-$*)$1"-I
**=
G)$*-$#(-*4%-'(,$'22'0-*/'N$
***=
%=
OI
G49('4'1-$%13$'/%(#%-'$-7'$07")'1$)"(#-*"1
P%1$.'$)-&%*57-2"&6%&3:$.#-$%()"$3*22*0#(-$)*10'$*-$4%,$-%+'$#9$-"$4"1-7)$-"$0"1)"(*3%-'$3'9%&-4'1-):$%00"#1-*15$
),)-'4):$*1/'1-"&*'):$'-0=$
%=
G1$"&3'&$2"&$*49('4'1-%-*"1$-"$.'$)#00'))2#($,"#$1''3$-"$3"$L$-7*15)>
Q(%1$P%&'2#((,*=
R'$)'1)*-*/'$-"$-7")'$%22'0-'3>$0"1)*3'&$7"6$"-7'&)$4*57-$2''($%."#-$-7'$07%15'=$G-$7'(9)$-"$5*/'$0#)-"4'&)$%13$
'49(",'')$(%-*-#3'$3#&*15$%$07%15'$*1$.#)*1'))')$9&%0-*0')$"&$6"&+*15$%&&%15'4'1-)=$$
**=
.=
SI
Evaluation:$What$if$the$decision$you$made$is$not$working?
T*/'$*-$4"&'$-*4'>$4%+'$)#&'$,"#$5*/'$'49(",'')$%13$0#)-"4'&)$'1"#57$-*4'$-"$5'-$#)'3$-"$-7'$1'6$%0-*"1U
P7%15'$*-$)(*57-(,>$4%+*15$-7'$1'6$%0-*"1)$6%)$-7'$&*57-$-7*15$-"$3":$.#-$1''3)$)"4'$V-6'%+*15V$U
E&,$%1"-7'&$%(-'&1%-*/'>$G2$9(%1$D$*)$1"-$6"&+*15:$)0&%-07$*-$2"&$9(%1$R$"&$PU
W-%&-$"/'&>$G2$1"-$%(-'&1%-*/'$*)$6"&+*15:$,"#$1''3$-"$5"$.%0+$-"$-7'$3&%6*15$."%&3$M$.%0+$-"$)-%5'$H$"2$-7'$3'0*)*"1$4%+*15$
9&"0'))I
U
Limitations$to$the$rational$model:$
G-$*)$9'&)9'0-*/':$*-$3')0&*.')$7"6$4%1%5'&)$%&'$ought -"$4%+'$3'0*)*"1):$1"-$7"6$-7',$actually 4%+'$-7'4=$U
?%+')$7*57(,$3')*&%.('$%))#49-*"1)>$-7%-$4%1%5'&)$7%/'$0"49('-'$*12"&4%-*"1:$%&'$%.('$-"$4%+'$%1$#1'4"-*"1%($%1%(,)*):$
%13$0%1$4%+'$-7'$.')-$3'0*)*"1$2"&$-7'$"&5%1*A%-*"1=$
U
Non@rational$models$of$decision$making:$'89(%*1)$7"6$4%1%5'&)$4%+'$3'0*)*"1)=$E7'$%))#4'$-7%-$3'0*)*"1$4%+*15$*)$%(4")-$
%(6%,)$#10'&-%*1$%13$&*)+,:$4%+*15$*-$3*22*0#(-$2"&$4%1%5'&)$-"$4%+'$-7'$"9-*4%($3'0*)*"1)=$X"1Y&%-*"1%($4'%1)$-7%-$-7'$4"3'()$3"$
1"-$%))#4'$3'0*)*"1)$%&'$5#*3'3$.,$".<'0-*/'$'/*3'10'$-7%-$5*/')$9'&2'0-$*1)*57-$*1-"$-7'$0")-)$%13$.'1'2*-)$"2$%(-'&1%-*/'$%0-*"1)=$
X"1YZ%-*"1%($4"3'()$%&'$3')0&*9-*/'$&%-7'&$-7%1$9&')0&*9-*/':$67*07$4'%1)$-7%-$-7',$3')0&*.'$7"6$4%1%5'&)$%0-#%((,$4%+'$
3'0*)*"1) &%-7'&$-7%1$7"6$-7',$)7"#(3$4%+'$3'0*)*"1)=$
The$three$non@rational$models$are:
W%-*)2*0*15>$4%1%5'&)$)''+$%(-'&1%-*/')$#1-*($-7',$2*13$"1'$-7%-$*)$)%-*)2%0-"&,:$1"-$"9-*4%(=$HI
G10&'4'1-%(>$4%1%5'&)$-%+'$)4%((:$)7"&-$-'&4$)-'9)$-"$%(('/*%-'$-7'$9&".('4:$&%-7'&$-7%1$)-'9)$-7%-$6*(($%00"49(*)7$%$("15$
-'&4$)"(#-*"1=
LI
G1-#*-*"1>$W4%(($'1-&'9&'1'#&)$"2-'1$0%1;-$%22"&3$*1$3'9-7$4%&+'-*15$&')'%&07:$)"$-7',$4%+'$3'0*)*"1)$.%)'3$"1$7#107')=$
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Document Summary
Can be straightforward, but also difficult since it may take up to months to cons systems, inventories, etc. ision in an ly to be ons based anagers should make decisions; it assumes rovement e. g the following questions: tc, then it is not) onsolidate departments, accounting the c systems, inventories, etc. It helps to give customers and g arrangements. et used to the new action e tweaking ( back to stage 1 of the decision making they actually make them. are able to make an unemotional analysis, assume that decision making is almost s. non rational means that the models do costs and benefits of alternative actions. scribe how managers actually make optimal. er than steps that will accomplish a long they make decisions based on hunches. al inference. rson has explicit and tacit knowledge onal response to the matter. e over what should be done, and it n agenda red to make a decision.
