ACC 312 Study Guide - Midterm Guide: Minidisc, Curve Fitting, Delphi Method
Document Summary
Forecasts are not plans but predictions of the future, which are required as an important prerequisite to the budget process. A forecast is not a budget but a prediction of future environments, events, and outcomes. Forecasting sales volumes/market share, of current and new products. Forecasting usually relies on the analysis of past data to identify patterns used to describe it. Patterns may then be extrapolated into the future to prepare a forecast. There are many forecasting methods, qualitative and quantitative, with no one best model. It is usually a question of fitting the pattern of historical data to the model that best fits. Qualitative forecasting uses expert opinion to predict future events and includes: The delphi method panel of recognised experts. Technological comparisons independent forecasters predicting changes in one area by monitoring changes in another area. Subjective curve fitting for example similar product life cycles for similar products like cd players and mini disc players.
