PHI 2100 Study Guide - Final Guide: Conjunction Fallacy, Money Illusion, Fortune-Telling
Document Summary
Lesson: we tend to make judgments by using stereotypes. (our idea of the representative x. ) Our stereotype of random sequences is less streaky than real random sequences. Therefore, we"re surprised by how streaky random sequences are. Our stereotype of a drug user involves failing a drug test. Or our stereotype of a sick person involves testing positive for an illness. A more specific / demanding description that fits our stereotype will be seen as more probable than a less specific / demanding description that does not fit our stereotype. We are very good at giving convincing but unsupported explanations for things after they occur. these easy explanations often give you a false sense of understanding. We often explain regression effects with unnecessary causal factors. Regression to the mean: whenever occurrences of x vary around a mean, if x1 is extreme, x2 is likely to be closer to the mean
