Political Science 2211E Study Guide - Midterm Guide: Marginal Seat, Triage, Proportional Representation
4 Apr 2020
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Department
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2211 Lecture Notes
Lecture 1
Assignments:
- 1 debate per tutorial
- Sign up for that debate for the tutorial
Midterm:
- 35-40 are lecture questions
- 15-20 are from the readings
Debate:
- Cannot sign up after September 23rd
- Only have to do 1 topic for the whole year
- Group grade, worth 10%
Lecture 2: The Science of Election Campaigns
- Focus groups are used in politics to gage the interest of the public
o Commodifies the public’s opinion into policies that will attract voters
o Using messages and language, even down to the ‘look’ to make the leader approachable
o Election campaigns are about selling 2 products: the policies and the leader
Campaign Strategy
- Political Triage
o Triage – refers to onsite medical treatments
o Prioritizing the emergencies first
o Dividing the ‘patients’ into 3 categories (tri):
▪ Critical
▪ The people who can wait; no immediate danger
▪ The people are the most hurt, but you have to spend a lot of time to save them →
inefficient use of resources to help them
o Political Triage:
▪ Dividing voters into 3 categories –
• Your base voters
• Opponent’s base voters
• Swing voters
▪ Is done to allow campaigns so that they can use their time and resources to the
best of their abilities
- Campaign Strategy
o Ignore opponent’s base voters
o Less focus on your own base voters
o Most focus on swing voters
- Proportional representation
o How many votes the party gets determines directly how many seats that party will get in
Parliament
o Seats in Parliament allocated based on popular vote
- First past the post
o Most votes per ridings wins the seat
o Even if the ridings all win with 30% of the vote for each of their ridings, they would still
win all the ridings and win 100% of the seats in Parliament
o You can get a majority government in Canada with even 40% of the vote because it is
based on the seat per winner
- Political Triage in
o First Past the Post
▪ 2 step process:
• ID base and swing ridings rather than base and swing voters
o Conservatives will always have rural Alberta
o Urban Quebec and Downtown Toronto are usually Liberals
• ID base and swing voters in swing ridings
- Demographic Segmentation
o ID characteristics of voters who do or might support you
▪ E.g. old, white, male = Conservative
- Companies segment their market
o Target different income groups
- Parties create profiles of different groups/segments of swing voters
o Tim Horton’s crowd
▪ People from suburbs or small towns, young/middle age with kids, with a
mortgage, stereotypical family
o ‘soccer moms’
▪ Suburban women who are huge swing voters
o ‘multicultural votes’
▪ Similar to Tims voters but different
▪ Immigrant families in the suburbs
- Political Marketing
o Growing use of techniques from world of consumer marketing
o Growth of professional political consultants
- Sales
o Have a product and then sell it to all
- Marketing
o Customize products to groups of consumers
- Political marketing
o Customize policies to groups of voters based on market research
- Boutique policies
o Single issue policies
o Appeal to self-interest
o Target specific groups of swing voters
- Red Meat policies
o Policies further to right or left
o Appeal to party’s base voters
o Motivate base voters to vote, donate, volunteer
▪ In the US, the number of swing voters is dwindling because it is becoming so
polarized
▪ It is now less likely to go to the middle and try to get the swing voters, so now
there is more base strategy with only motivating the base and getting those
polarized votes
- In addition to policies, also use market research to make leaders more appealing
- Focus groups, style makeovers and messaging
Components of an Election Campaign
- The Air War
o Conducted by the national level campaign
o Paid advertising
▪ Attack ads to ‘define’ opponent
• Frame them in the minds of voters in a negative way
• Never have the leader in them because you do not want to make it look
like leaders are attacking each other
▪ Majority of voters don’t like negative attack ads, but they do remember them the
most
▪ Positive ads to sell leader and message
▪ Where do you place ads?
• Geographic triage
• Trying to find where the swing voters are located
▪ Guided by political triage and demographic segmenting
▪ Target specific voters in swing ridings
▪ ‘microtargeting’ with direct mail and social media
• Very specific segments of people
• Ex. A facebook ad is microtargeting
• Can do direct mail to students on campus for targeted issues
• Policies that appeal to the base may not appeal to swing voters and vice
versa
o Leaders’ Tour
▪ Speeches, announcements and media events
▪ Generate ‘earned media’
o Leader’s Debates
▪ Emphasis on leader
▪ Leader’s prep in mock-up sets
▪ Can occasionally have big impact
▪ Ex. Kennedy and Nixon debate:
• On TV, people thought JFK won because Nixon looked a bit ‘rough’
with stubble, but on the radio people thought Nixon won
• Shows how visual impact can translate into their policies
▪ When you’re the PM in power, the debates will help your opposition
o Rapid Response War Rooms
▪ Strategists, research and communications staff, media studios
▪ Provide immediate reactions to media to respond to opponents
▪ Issue texts, Twitter, etc. to journalists to help them write stories
▪ Respond to opponents in real time
▪ Conduct ‘oppo’ research
Document Summary
Sign up for that debate for the tutorial. Only have to do 1 topic for the whole year. Is done to allow campaigns so that they can use their time and resources to the best of their abilities. Ignore opponent"s base voters: less focus on your own base voters, most focus on swing voters. Proportional representation: how many votes the party gets determines directly how many seats that party will get in. Parliament: seats in parliament allocated based on popular vote. Political triage in: first past the post, 2 step process: Id base and swing ridings rather than base and swing voters: conservatives will always have rural alberta, urban quebec and downtown toronto are usually liberals. Id base and swing voters in swing ridings. Id characteristics of voters who do or might support you: e. g. old, white, male = conservative. Companies segment their market: target different income groups.
