FIN 300 Study Guide - Final Guide: Cash Flow, Net Present Value, Musik In Geschichte Und Gegenwart

Sabrina Gupta, an investment advisor with a major brokerage firm, was examining Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (Wal-Mart) stock and its valuation. Gupta wondered whether to recommend the stock to any of her new clients or to existing clients who did not currently have Wal-Mart in their portfolios.

Her key task was to use an intrinsic value approach to price the shares and to then compare the resulting price with the price at which the stock was traded in the market. Gupta wanted to use alternative valuation methods and assumptions to produce intrinsic value estimates for Wal-Mart stock.

She was interested in seeing if the alternative methods would point to a consensus regarding the valuation of the stock and to see if the valuations suggested an investment opportunity given the current market price. Methods she contemplated to use were:

Multi-stage growth model

Price Earnings Multiple

Most valuation methods Gupta considered required a common set of inputs:

Future Cash Flows to Wal-Mart Investors

Growth rate of future cash flows

Discount factor or required rate of return by Wal-Mart investors

Gupta gathered data to determine each of the above.

Gupta thought that Dividends to Wal-Mart shareholders would adequately capture the cash flows to Wal-Mart shareholders; she also thought that this approach would simplify her task and she would revisit more complex valuation models if she felt the need.

Gupta thought that CAPM would provide her a relatively reliable estimate of the required rate of return. CAPM based required rate of return can be estimated by using a risk free rate, systematic risk of the firm and equity market risk premium. Gupta thought that in a valuation exercise that involve long term cash flows, 10-year government bond yield would be an appropriate risk free rate of return estimate. She checked the 10 year note rate and found out that it was about 3.68%. Gupta searched for Wal-Mart beta in Bloomberg. Bloomberg estimates betas by regressing the S&P 500 returns on the firm returns over the past two years and arrives at a “raw” beta estimate. Bloomberg makes an adjustment in raw beta based on some academic research. Gupta is confident that Bloomberg adjustment is justified and she uses Wal-Mart beta estimate of 0.66 in her analysis.

While Gupta is aware of the importance of EMRP assumption, she thinks that Bloomberg’s historical estimate of 5.05% is a safe assumption. She is aware of the fact that some studies suggest a larger risk premium of approximately six per cent, while others suggest a much lower forward-looking premium of less than four per cent. She is mindful of the arbitrariness of her assumption, and she takes a note to revisit this issue if her valuations produce unreasonable estimates.

Anticipated dividend growth (g) is often estimated in a variety of ways.

First, observed historical dividend growth can be assumed to continue in a perpetual fashion.

Second, future dividend growth can be estimated on the basis of recent estimates of analysts.

Gupta noted that the consensus annual Wal-Mart dividend for fiscal year 2011 was $1.21, and one respected analyst had estimated the expected constant dividend growth (in perpetuity) at approximately 3%.

As the chart suggests, both earnings and dividend growth rates are declining but they seem to be higher than the “respected analyst’s” estimates. Gupta decides to use several alternative perpetual growth assumptions to see the impact on price. Since Gupta decided to use variants of dividend discount model (DDM), she checked the anticipated earnings for 2011. Analyst’s estimates suggested $4.10 earnings per share. Gupta decided to use 10% growth rate from 2011 to 2012 and assumed a steady decline to 3% in 13 years (until 2024) where the perpetual growth rate of 3% resumes. She also assumed that WalMart will increase its dividend payout ratio from 30% to 55% from years 2012 to 2024. You are asked to reproduce Gupta’s analysis of multi-stage growth model and double check her valuation by using an earnings multiple. You have all the data you need to conduct the multi stage discounted growth model analysis, but you will need to do some research about the multiples valuation.

The goal of the firm is to ____ because _____. Answer maximize shareholders' wealth; it considers all risks invest funds in real estate; the return is longer maximize shareholders' profit; it is a short term outlook closely matching management goals Mike is paying $8,000 a year on his mortgage at 6% nominal annual interest. He has 15 more years to make payments. He wants to sell his house today. The lowest [minimum] price he can sell the house without losing any money on the house would be about ___. Answer $120,000 $ 50,000 $77,698 $ 186,208 A firm's net income before tax, EBT [NIBT] (on the income statement) is affected by _____. Answer taxes interest dividends Common Stock as listed on the Balance Sheet could include which of the following? Answer A) retained earnings B) additional paid in capital over par value C) preferred capital Both A) and B) If an asset is sold for ___ than its basis, the tax effect would be ____. Answer A) more; capital gain and depreciation recapture B) less; depreciation recapture C) more; capital loss Both A) and B) The main reason for a firm to have assets is to _______. Answer generate revenue match the liabilities and equity both of the above be able to borrow money and pay its debts none of the above The only risk you would NOT have in loaning money to the United States Government (Uncle Sugar) is _____ risk. Answer liquidity maturity default A(n) ____ shows _____. Answer balance sheet; sources and uses of funds income statement; net income as of a specific date cash flow statement; how well the firm is doing relative to its competition You can compare dollars _____ because ______. Answer computed using equations; any math is always correct at any point in time; time is never a factor if they are at nominal value; that is when decisions are made only at the same point in time; dollars can be invested to earn interest There ___ a tax benefit to the company with paying preferred dividends because _______. Answer is; investors can write them off is not; investors declare them as income is; the company can use the payments as an expense is not; the company cannot use the payments as an expense XYZ issued a 6% coupon, $1,000 par, 30 year to maturity bond. It is now 6 years to maturity. What is the price of the bond if the yield to maturity [market interest rate] is 10%? Answer $1,000 $659.46 $825.79 $705.33 The valuation process can be described as ______. Answer calculating the present value of an expected future cash flow using the investor's required rate of return as the discount rate calculating the future value of an expected future cash flow using the investor's required rate of return as the discount rate amortizing the value of the asset over its holding period The ______ is the minimum required rate of return a firm must earn on its investments. Answer net present value opportunity cost of capital or weighted average cost of capital. internal rate of return gross profit margin The value of an asset is the _____ dollar price someone is willing to pay for it. Answer usual maximum minimum Companies use ____ in capital budgeting project analysis because ________. Answer accounting profit; that is the total net income after tax cash flow; that is what the owners would receive from the project and reinvest accounting profit; that is what the owners would receive from the project and reinvest after tax cash flow; that is the result of prudent accounting When borrowing money, you want to know the ____ interest rate because ____. Answer nominal; it is the easiest to find. effective; it is the true cost of borrowing risk free; that is what the government pays Fed funds; that is what you would pay the bank Cash available to pay out to the investors after the firm pays for new investments or additions to working capital is _____. Answer a statement of cash flows operating after tax cash flow free cash flow net income An organization that raises money from investors and provides financing for individuals and businesses is a ___. Answer factor federal government regulatory unit state government taxing authority financial intermediary Negatives/cons of the Net Present Value (NPV) technique include: Answer least conservative reinvestment assumption multiple rates of return for non-conventional cash flows all of the above none of the above A fixed exchange rate means a country _____. Answer can only use gold coins as money is limited in the amount of paper money it can print can print money as the economy demands Your company is considering an investment with the following expected cash flows: Initial Investment = $407,596 Operating Cash Flows = $73,428 per year Terminal Cash Flow = $11,872. The company's WACC is 11% for similar risk projects. The proposed project would have an expected life of 9 years. Your boss asks you to do the analysis. You would tell your boss this proposed project ___ because ____. Answer is acceptable; NPV is about $3,620 is acceptable; NPV is zero should be rejected; NPV is about -$5,660 [negative $5,660]. should be rejected; NPV is zero All ratios are ___ and a reason to analyze ratios is ____. Answer good; to continue to look productive good and bad; because seemingly good ratios can be masking something bad bad; to try to rework the numbers to have them look good basically irrelevant; there really is no need to analyze financial statements When analyzing financial statements, ratio analysis gives ____ and provides insight into ____. Answer very little useful information; practically nothing good practice in logical thinking; what has occurred and the logic behind it financiers something to do during slow periods; how the financier spends his time accountants a reason to provide financial statements; why accountants do what they do while at work Given: Economic State[i]: Good Average Expected Return[i]: 10% 8% Probability[i]: 30% 70% What is the Standard Deviation? Answer 3% 8.4% 0.92% 5.6% Chapter 9: XYZ has a projected project to install a new press. The expected cash revenue is $175,000 per year. Expected yearly expenses are: Operatinf costs of $50,000; Rental of $17,000; Utilities of $20,500; and Depreciation of $10,000. The tax rate is 35%. What is the expected After-Tax Operating Cash Flow for the first year? Answer $65,500 $60,375 $77,500 $97,500 A stock just paid a dividend of $1.60 per year. The dividend is expected to grow at 3% per year indefinately. Equally risky stocks offer expected rates of return of 8%. What should be the stock price? Answer 53.33 $16.00 $32.96 None of the above. A plot of the CAPM is the _____. Answer wrong thing to do Security Market Line a function showing how to calculate TVM All of the above. Derivatives are used to ___. Answer divide one number by another find old ways to do things hedge risk none of the above With the end of the Gold Standard in the 1970's, what new risk did business face in the international market? Answer Comjpetition Exchange rate Worker compensation Property taxes One of the positive aspects [pros] of a Floating Exchange Rate System is ____. Answer money can be printed as needed to support financial/economic growth no/reduced inflation economic growth is reduced as a result of reduced liquidity [lower money supply] business planning is more difficult A(n) ____ contract obligates the seller to execute the contract and the contract is executed. Answer backwards forward future option What policies did countries institute after the Great War that help lead to the Great Depression? Answer A. Mandatory military service B. Trade restrictions C. High tariffs D. Isolationism Only B., C. and D. All of the above

You are proposing a new venture, to branch out into animals and cartoon characters but this will require some new equipment and a capital outlay. Pertinent financial information is given below.

BALANCE SHEET

� Last year�s sales were $225,000,000.

� The company has 60,000 bonds with a 30-year life outstanding, with 15 years until maturity. The bonds carry a 10 percent annual coupon, and are currently selling for $874.78.

� You also have 100,000 shares of $100 par, 9% dividend perpetual preferred stock outstanding. The current market price is $90.00. Any new issues of preferred stock would incur a $3.00 per share flotation cost.

� The company has 10 million shares of common stock outstanding with a currently price of $14.00 per share. The stock exhibits a constant growth rate of 10 percent. The last dividend (D₀) was $.80. New stock could be sold with 15% flotation costs.

� The risk-free rate is currently 6 percent, and the rate of return on the stock market as a whole is 14 percent. Your stock�s beta is 1.22.

� Stockholders require a risk premium of 5 percent above the return on the firms bonds.

� The firm expects to have additional retained earnings of $10 million in the coming year, and expects depreciation expenses of $35 million.

� Your firm does not use notes payable for long-term financing.

� The firm considers its current market value capital structure to be optimal, and wishes to maintain that structure. (Hint: Examine the market value of the firm�s capital structure, rather than its book value.)

� The firm is currently using its assets at capacity.

� The firm�s management requires a 2 percent adjustment to the cost of capital for risky projects.

� Your firm�s federal + state marginal tax rate is 40%.

� Your firm�s dividend payout ratio is 50 percent, and net profit margin was 8.89 percent.

� The firm has the following investment opportunities currently available in addition to the expansion you are proposing:

Your expansion would consist of a new product introduction (You should label your venture as Project I, for �introduction�). You estimate that your product will have a six-year life span (after all how many people will really buy this stuff), and the equipment used to manufacture the project falls into the MACRS 5-year class. Your venture would require a capital investment of $15,000,000 in equipment, plus $2,000,000 in installation costs. The venture would also result in an increase in accounts receivable and inventories of $4,000,000. At the end of the six-year life span of the venture, you estimate that the equipment could be sold at a $4,000,000 salvage value.

Your venture, which management considers fairly risky, would increase fixed costs by a constant $1,000,000 per year, while the variable costs of the venture would equal 30 percent of revenues. You are projecting that revenues generated by the project would equal $5,000,000 in year 1, $10,000,000 in year 2, $14,000,000 in year 3, $16,000,000 in year 4, $12,000,000 in year 5, and $8,000,000 in year 6.

The following list of steps provides a structure that you should use in analyzing your new venture.

Note: Carry all final calculations to two decimal places.

Find the WACC:

1. Find the costs (rate of return under current market conditions) of the individual capital components:
a. long-term debt (Hint: PV=-$874.78, FV = $1000, PMT=$100, n=15 solve for i)
b. preferred stock
c. retained earnings (avg. of CAPM and bond yield + risk premium approaches)
d. new common stock

2. Compute the value of the long-term elements of the capital structure, and determine the target percentages for the optimal capital structure. (Carry weights to four decimal places. For example: 0.2973 or 29.73%)

Find the Cash Flow from the project:

3. Compute the Year 0 investment for Project I.

4. Compute the annual operating cash flows for years 1-6 of the project.

5. Compute the additional non-operating cash flow at the end of year 6.

Find alternative capital budgeting measures:

6. Compute the IRR and payback period for Project I.

7. Determine your firm�s cost of capital. (Hint this is the WACC plus an adjustment from the write up)

Make Some Decisions:

8. Compute the NPV for Project I. Should management adopt this project based on your analysis? Explain. Would your answer be different if the project were determined to be of average risk? Explain.

9. Indicate which of the other projects (A through E) should be accepted and why.