What do you mean by seasonality in time series data?

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Related questions

Consider the following time series data:

Week 1 2 3 4 5 6

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Value 18 13 16 11 17 14

Using the naïve method (most recent value) as the forecast for the next week, compute the following measures of forecast accuracy.

A. mean absolute error

B. mean squared error

C. mean absolute percentage error

d. What is the forecast for Week 7?

amberweasel147

consider the following time series data

Week 1 2 3 4 5 6
Value 18 13 16 11 17 14
a. Construct a time series plot. What type of pattern exists in the data?
b. develop a three-week moving average for this time series. Compute mSe and a forecast for week 7.
c. use a 5 0.2 to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Compute mSe and a forecast for week 7.
d. Compare the three-week moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing
forecast using a 5 0.2. Which appears to provide the better forecast based on mSe?
explain.
e. use trial and error to find a value of the exponential smoothing coefficient a that
results in a smaller mSe than what you calculated for a 5 0.2.