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You’re the manager of global opportunities for a U.S. manufacturer, who is considering expanding sales into Europe. Your market research has identified three potential market opportunities: England, France, and Germany. If you enter the English market, you have a 0.5 chance of big success (selling 100,000 units at a per-unit profit of $8), a 0.3 chance of moderate success (selling 60,000 units at a per-unit profit of $6), and a 0.2 chance of failure (selling nothing). If you enter the French market, you have a 0.4 chance of big success (selling 120,000 units at a per-unit profit of $9), a 0.4 chance of moderate success (selling 50,000 units at a per-unit profit of $6), and a 0.2 chance of failure (selling nothing). If you enter the German market, you have a 0.2 chance of huge success (selling 150,000 units at a per-unit profit of $10), a 0.5 chance of moderate success (selling 70,000 units at a per-unit profit of $6), and a 0.3 chance of failure (selling nothing). If you can enter only one market, and the cost of entering the market (regardless of which market you select) is $250,000, should you enter one of the European markets? If so, which one? If you enter, what is your expected profit?

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Hubert Koch
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17 Feb 2019

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CLASS NOTES ARE LOCATED WHERE IT SAYS CLASS NOTES!

During the early 1700s, a sailing ship is wrecked on an uninhabited island in the Caribbean Sea. The passengers and crew survive but lose all their possessions. There is no source of fresh water on the island, but coconut palm trees are fairly abundant, and the survivors are able to drink milk harvested from coconuts. There are no mammals living on the island, but many birds roost there, and these become a source of meat. There are a number of mango trees that provide fruit. A long, tough form of sawgrass grows in a number of different places on the island. This grass can be woven into knee-length sleeveless shirts, which are the basic type of clothing for people of both genders. The people on this island have developed a simple system of direct market exchange. Currently, two mangos trade for five coconuts, six coconuts trade for a pound of meat, and three pounds of meat trade for four shirts.

1. Use a formula that was stated in class, and in my notes, to calculate the total number of distinct relative prices in the island’s economy. Note that when this formula is used to count relative prices, any given pair of goods is considered to have only one relative price. For example, if we count the price of a pound of meat in mangos as one relative price, then we don’t count the price of mangos in pounds of meat as a second relative price.

(Class Notes: In a barter economy with markets, each good should have a market price, per unit, in terms of each of the other goods: baskets of fish per bushel of apples, bags of coconuts per bushel of apples, etc. A price of this type – units of one good per unit of the other good – is called a relative price (alternatively, a barter price). If there are different goods traded in an economy, then there turn out to be relative prices for a merchant to keep track of, in each market he visits. Each of the n goods has unit prices: one for each of the other goods. We divide by two to avoid counting reciprocal duplicates: if it costs 2 bags of coconuts to buy a bushel of apples, then it costs 1/2 bushel of apples to buy a bag of coconuts, and so on. )

2. Use the price information you are given to calculate all the distinct relative prices. Remember that the prices we are interested in are unit prices. A unit price is the price of a single unit of one good in units of another good. For each pair of goods, use the order that produces the highest unit price. In the case of coconuts and shirts, for example, if the price of a shirt in coconuts is higher than the price of a coconut in shirts, then report the first price but not the second one. Note: In calculating unit prices, don’t worry about issues of divisibility. Assume that any good can be divided in any way, so that fractions or decimals can be components of unit prices.

3. For each relative price you just calculated, calculate the relative price if the order of the two items is switched. (In the scenario above, for example, you would now calculate the price of a coconut in shirts.) What very simple formula can you use to do this? Explain briefly.

4. Now suppose the people on this island start using mangos as money. The relative prices on the island do not change, and the absolute prices are consistent with them. a. Use a formula stated in class, and in my notes, to calculate the total number of absolute prices in the island’s economy. b. Report these absolute prices.

Class Notes: ( In a monetary economy, in contrast, each good has a single absolute price (alternatively, a money price), which is its unit price in terms of money: dollars per bushel of apples, etc. If we assume that one of the n goods is used as money, then a merchant only needs to keep track of absolute prices. As long as there are more than two different goods ( ), it turns out that , and the difference between these two numbers gets very big as n gets large. Even if there are only 10 different goods, then there are 45 relative prices and only 9 absolute prices. And if there are 100 different goods, which is a more realistic number, then there are 99 absolute prices but almost 5000 relative prices.)

5. Comment briefly on the potential advantages and disadvantages of using mangos as money, using our list of the desirable properties of money as a guide.

6. Suppose you are a merchant on this island, where mangos are used as money in the market (see Item 4 above). A competing merchant who dislikes using money in transactions is willing to trade coconuts for shirts (or vice-versa) directly, at a rate of five coconuts per shirt. Explain, carefully and completely, how you could use this merchant’s willingness to trade these two goods, at this rate, in order to make a profit of one unit of money for yourself by (1) using money to buy units of a good in the market, (2) trading those units of the good to this merchant, in exchange for units of another good, and (3) selling those units in the market for money. Identify the items traded and the quantities, and verify the amount of the profit. Finally, explain what you would need to do in order to make a larger profit (double, for example).

Can you summarize this article and wrtite down some important points regarding GDP?

NEW YORK – Striving to revive the world economy while simultaneously responding to the global climate crisis has raised a knotty question: are statistics giving us the right “signals” about what to do? In our performance-oriented world, measurement issues have taken on increased importance: what we measure affects what we do. If we have poor measures, what we strive to do (say, increase GDP) may actually contribute to a worsening of living standards. We may also be confronted with false choices, seeing trade-offs between output and environmental protection that don’t exist. By contrast, a better measure of economic performance might show that steps taken to improve the environment are good for the economy. Eighteen months ago, French President Nicolas Sarkozy established an international Commission on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress, owing to his dissatisfaction – and that of many others – with the current state of statistical information about the economy and society. On September 14, the Commission will issue its long-awaited report. The big question concerns whether GDP provides a good measure of living standards. In many cases, GDP statistics seem to suggest that the economy is doing far better than most citizens’ own perceptions. Moreover, the focus on GDP creates conflicts: political leaders are told to maximize it, but citizens also demand that attention be paid to enhancing security, reducing air, water, and noise pollution, and so forth – all of which might lower GDP growth. The fact that GDP may be a poor measure of well-being, or even of market activity, has, of course, long been recognized. But changes in society and the economy may have heightened the problems, at the same time that advances in economics and statistical techniques may have provided opportunities to improve our metrics. For example, while GDP is supposed to measure the value of output of goods and services, in one key sector – government – we typically have no way of doing it, so we often measure the output simply by the inputs. If government spends more – even if inefficiently – output goes up. In the last 60 years, the share of government output in GDP has increased from 21.4% to 38.6% in the US, from 27.6% to 52.7% in France, from 34.2% to 47.6% in the United Kingdom, and from 30.4% to 44.0% in Germany. So what was a relatively minor problem has now become a major one. Likewise, quality improvements – say, better cars rather than just more cars – account for much of the increase in GDP nowadays. But assessing quality improvements is difficult. Health care exemplifies this problem: much of medicine is publicly provided, and much of the advances are in quality. The same problems in making comparisons over time apply to comparisons across countries. The United States spends more on health care than any other country (both per capita and as a percentage of income), but gets poorer outcomes. Part of the difference between GDP per capita in the US and some European countries may thus be a result of the way we measure things. Another marked change in most societies is an increase in inequality. This means that there is increasing disparity between average (mean) income and the median income (that of the “typical” person, whose income lies in the middle of the distribution of all incomes). If a few bankers get much richer, average income can go up, even as most individuals’ incomes are declining. So GDP per capita statistics may not reflect what is happening to most citizens. We use market prices to value goods and services. But now, even those with the most faith in markets question reliance on market prices, as they argue against mark-to-market valuations. The pre-crisis profits of banks – onethird of all corporate profits – appear to have been a mirage. This realization casts a new light not only on our measures of performance, but also on the inferences we make. Before the crisis, when US growth (using standard GDP measures) seemed so much stronger than that of Europe, many Europeans argued that Europe should adopt US-style capitalism. Of course, anyone who wanted to could have seen American households’ growing indebtedness, which would have gone a long way toward correcting the false impression of success given by the GDP statistic. Recent methodological advances have enabled us to assess better what contributes to citizens’ sense of well-being, and to gather the data needed to make such assessments on a regular basis. These studies, for instance, verify and quantify what should be obvious: the loss of a job has a greater impact than can be accounted for just by the loss of income. They also demonstrate the importance of social connectedness. Any good measure of how well we are doing must also take account of sustainability. Just as a firm needs to measure the depreciation of its capital, so, too, our national accounts need to reflect the depletion of natural resources and the degradation of our environment. Statistical frameworks are intended to summarize what is going on in our complex society in a few easily interpretable numbers. It should have been obvious that one couldn’t reduce everything to a single number, GDP. The report by the Commission on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress will, one hopes, lead to a better understanding of the uses, and abuses, of that statistic. GDP Fetishism - Project Syndicate 2/8/10 4:05 PM http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/stiglitz116/English Page 2 of 3 The report should also provide guidance for creating a broader set of indicators that more accurately capture both well-being and sustainability; and it should provide impetus for improving the ability of GDP and related statistics to assess the performance of the economy and society. Such reforms will help us direct our efforts (and resources) in ways that lead to improvement in both. Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2009. www.project-syndicate.org Reprinting material from this website without written consent from Project Syndicate is a violation of international copyright law. To secure permission, please contact [email protected]. tvselvakumaran 05:30 30 Sep 09 The official consensus Professor Martin Feldstein's latest article, "The G-20's Empty Promises" on Project Syndicate needs careful consideration. In his article, Professor Feldstein essentially adopts the "official consensus" of the economics profession on the current economic crisis. This official consensus, in its various mainfestations, has also been elaborated on by other famous economists, notably Professor Robert Lucas in his article in the Economist in early August, and by Professor Paul Krugman in his recent article in the New York Times Magazine. One characterizing feature of this official consensus is a confidence (a.k.a. triumphalism) in the certainty of outcomes predicted by modern economic theory. The main precepts of this official consensus are (i) Professor Ben Bernanke, the Chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve, has at his disposal all the theoretical tools of economics that are necessary and sufficient to deal with the current economic crisis. As Professor Lucas explains it in his Economist article, if one were able to predict in advance exactly when a market crash would occur, it would imply that the market entertains arbritrage opportunities. Hence, it is not possible to predict financial crises in advance. However, except for the precise timing of the occurrence of financial crises, macroeconomic theory could explain the workings of the economy completely. In particular, to avert the recurrence of the Great Depression, certain actions were needed to be taken by the Fed -- the specifics of these actions were all clearly understood by the economics profession. However, it was politically untenable to take these actions before there was a financial crisis. Once the financial crisis occurred though, Professor Bernanke could intervene in the markets and take the necessary actions (in the Fall of 2008). These actions include the injection of several trillion dollars into the economy and making the availability of credit the cheapest possible. The actions taken by the Fed have now resulted in the economy avoiding a recurrence of the Great Depression. This is, in brief, what Professor Lucas has stated in his Economist article. (ii) Thus in Professor Lucas' interpretation of things, the collapse of Lehman Brothers, for example, was necessary, in order to justify the intervention of the Federal Reserve in the functioning of the markets. The collapse of Lehman Brothers was, although regrettable, an unavoidable event. But, on the whole, monetary policy, even if it is a profligate one, would be necessary and sufficient to prevent the recurrence of the Great Depression, in Professor Lucas' view. Furthermore, the old wisdom of the Chicago School that government should be kept minimal at all times continues to hold, even in light of the current economic crisis. The Keynesians led by Professor Krugman, on the other hand, believe that Lehman Brothers should never have been allowed to fail. In their view, when the Fed's fund rate is at zero, monetary policy is largely ineffective for sustaining and stimulating economic activity. This is because of liquidity traps caused by businessmen who don't see economic opportunities that would induce them to borrow the cheap money available from the banks. Hence the government should step in to provide massive fiscal assistance to the economy by taking on spending directly, even if it means assuming trillions of dollars of public debt. (iii) Professor Krugman scored a lot of points by pointing out that the current state of economic theory, highly influenced as it is by the efficient market hypothesis of the Chicago School, indicated that a crisis of such magnitude as the current economic crisis could not happen at all. This fundamental failure to recognize that an enormous crisis could indeed happen, calls for the overthrow of the policy that markets provide the best social gain when they are completely free from government interference. From first impressions, it might seem that the views of the monetarists and Keynesians are vastly different. However, it is important to note that in the view of the Keynesians too, once large scale government spending as prescribed by the Keynesians is instituted, there is again enough assurance that modern economic theory (although with a heavy Keynesian tilt) would be sufficient to deal with the current economic crisis. (iv) In this regard, perhaps it is relevant to refer here to Professor Robert Shiller's latest article, "Re-inventing Economics" on Project Syndicate. Professor Shiller points out that the free market ideology fails to identify bubbles. Because of the belief that markets know best on all occasions, bubbles cannot occur according to the free market ideology. Professor Shiller's approach pursues a different branch of the Keynesian school of thought than the big spenders. Rather than advocate large government spending to avert a depression, Professor Shiller proposes using techniques from behavioral psychology to predict bubbles in advance. In this way, the socially harmful effects of massive misallocations of capital that arose in the case of the housing bubble or the tech bubble could be prevented in the future. In his other recent article, "Echo Chamber of Boom and Bust" in the New York Times, Professor Shiller elaborates further on the techniques that one could use for studying bubbles. Briefly, the process by which confidence or panic spreads in markets is very similar to the process by which diseases spread among populations. This outlook allows for introducing methods that scientists use to study epidemics into the study of bubbles. (v) The Keynesians have also managed to re-write the conventional wisdom on the advantages of a strong dollar. Through the works of Professors Barry Eichengreen, Jeffrey Sachs and Ben Bernnake, a consensus has developed that attempting to support the gold standard was a major cause for the prolongation of the Great Depression. This has resulted in a viewpoint among economists that a devaluation of the dollar at present would help to reduce global imbalances by restoring the American manufacturing industry. The implications of this viewpoint were analyzed by Professor Feldstein in his July 2009 article "America's Saving Rate and the Dollar's Future" on Project Syndicate, with the conclusion that devaluation of the dollar would necessarily lead to a better future for GDP Fetishism - Project Syndicate 2/8/10 4:05 PM http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/stiglitz116/English Page 3 of 3 America. Lost in this new interpretation is the fact that a stable dollar provides many economic benefits for America. The equity premium for American companies taking more risks globally, the transaction charges for providing market making facilities in global markets, and the provisions of liquidity for the currency of international trade are major drivers of economic growth for America, which derive from the dollar being the global reserve currency. (vi) Some other Keynesians have gone beyond questioning just the free market ideology. For example, in his latest article, "GDP Fetishism" on Project Syndicate, Professor Joseph Stiglitz proposes a broad set of economic indicators like health, well-being and sustainability rather than a narrow focus on GDP growth. Yet other developments imply that the rest of the world is steadily moving away from using the dollar as the main reserve currency. To finance this new global reserve system, the IMF has created $250 billion worth of Special Drawing Rights (SDR), and the IMF has indicated its intention to triple this allocation of $250 billion in the future. It would need a strong commitment from the policy-makers in America to re-claim for the dollar its position as the predominant global reserve currency. However, judging from the writings of American economists like Professor Feldstein, it appears that the consensus among professional economists favors devaluing the dollar instead. (vii) The official consensus is a result of a grand compromise between the Chicago School economists and the Keynesians.The conservative economists of the Chicago School would like to avoid the embarassment of getting publicly criticized for the failures of the efficient market hypothesis that this current economics crisis has severely exposed. So famous conservative economists like Professor Lucas have reached out for a consensus by indicating their willingness for a compromise. This compromise involves among other things, (a) foregoing raising concerns about the government's mismanagement of Fanie Mae and Freddie Mac, and (b) lending support to the Fed and the Treasury in their efforts to stabilize the economy, even if the methods that the Fed and the Treasury employ are highly inefficient. What are the Keynesians compromising on? Well, the Western liberal tradition has been intellectually bankrupt ever since the late 1960s. It is only the free market ideology of the Chicago School that has served as the driver of wealth creation in the advanced countries during the last four decades. Hence, the official consensus is a convenient compromise for the Keynesians to avoid asking difficult questions about the future of the Western liberal tradition. Instead, they would like to enact much drama in the media about the resurrection of their hero, John Maynard Keynes. (viii) One other characterizing feature of the official consensus in the economics profession is a collective tendency to "Blame It All On Obama". The conservative economists blame President Obama for not focusing adequately on America's ballooning national debt. The liberals, led by Professor Krugman, fault President Obama for getting distracted from the left's free spending ways by concerns on the size of the fiscal deficit. In the confusion that has ensued, President Obama's own team of economics advisors has fallen back on the official consensus in the economics profession. Availing themselves of the security provided by this official consensus, President Obama's economics team has misled the President thoroughly in economic matters. To begin with, the President is only empowered to administer the nation's affairs for a four year term. The projections put out by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) for the deficits in the next decade are only a non-authoritative guidance for where the nation's finances would be, if current policies hold for the next decade. Instead, the democrats have been behaving as if the $9 trillion of additional public debt that the CBO projects for the next decade is already a given certainty. In particular, they have not been careful to mention clearly in public discussions how much of this extra spending can be attributed to the President's own spending plans in his current four-year term. Neither have they shown any concerns for taking the Fed and the Treasury to taks for their highly inefficient methods to stabilize the economy. Because of these instances of neglect, the public is not willing to trust the government in financial matters. President Obama has rapidly lost his approval ratings. Professor Lawrence Summers, Professor Christina Romer, Professor Austan Goolsbee and Professor Peter Orszag are directly responsible for this abuse of public trust. (ix) The official consensus has also prevented economists from recognizing that President Obama's universal message of tolerance and justice, which has been received very favorably all around the world, actually opens up vast areas of economic opportunity for America. Unfortunately, it does not matter, for the economists, whether George W. Bush or Barack Obama is in office. The most they can do is re-work their models to favor Keynesian policies, and to argue that the policies they propose arise directly from their number-crunching methods. One might be tempted to attribute this widespread consensus among economists to stick to a narrow theoretical interpretation of the current economic crisis, to the certainty afforded by the mathematical models, which have become indispensible through the course of the 20th century, for the development of economic theory. However, this would be a big mistake. The official consensus in the economics profession is primarily a result of undue influences of power and money. It is much less a result of mathematically based economic theory. In the longterm, this attitude among economists of sticking to an official consensus is going to do serious damage to the American economy. Some other aspects of the official consensus have been explained very well by Professor Kenneth Rogoff in his recent article, "The Confidence Game" on Project Syndicate. I recommend that the reader go through that article. The official consensus is the single largest threat to a robust recovery in the global economy. The official consensus also gravely misinterprets the events of the Great Depression. The implications of this misinterpretation bear directly on the economic health of America.

Question 1 If it was impossible to have a comparative advantage, there would be no gains from trade. True False 4 points

Question 2 If the price of Good X is $10 and price of Good Y is $15, the slope of the budget constraint is 1.5. True False 4 points

Question 3 If the demand and supply curves have equal slopes in absolute value, the burden of a commodity tax will be split equally regardless of on whom the tax is placed. True False 4 points

Question 4 Suppose that supply is fixed at 100 units and demand is Q = 500 P. A price ceiling of $100 creates a shortage of 400 units. True False 4 points

Question 5 Housing shortages caused by rent controls are larger in the long run because the supply of housing is more elastic in the long run. True False 4 points

Question 6 Firms should exit the industry if average costs are greater than marginal costs. True False 4 points

Question 7 If a 3.67 percent increase in price causes a 1.97 percent decrease in quantity demanded, then total revenue must fall following an increase in price. True False 4 points

Question 8 Which of the following choices best illustrates the concept of Adam Smith's invisible hand ? A Vietnamese farmer grows rice; an exporter ships it to the United States, and a grocer in New York sells it to a customer. A fishery's stock of fish becomes depleted due to overfishing as boats from around the world converge. A government regulates a firm to clean up the pollutants it has released as part of its production process. An apartment building is built, which provides much needed housing, on the site of the only playground for children in that town. 4 points

Question 9 Figure: Labor Supply and Welfare Refer to the figure. The budget constraint is: ABC. BD. ABDC. ABD. 4 points Question 10 The price of coffee has increased, yet evidence suggests the demand for coffee has been stable. A possible explanation is that: there has been no change in the supply of coffee. there has been increased use of subsidies in coffee production. wages of workers in coffee production might have decreased. wages of workers in coffee production might have increased. 4 points Question 11 Which of the following statements is TRUE regarding profit maximization in competitive markets? I. When all firms pursue profits, none of them achieve profits. II. When all firms pursue profits, only the most innovative will achieve profits. III. Production is divided in such a way that total costs of production are minimized. I only II only I and III only II and III only 4 points Question 12 Suppose France can produce four phones or three computers with one unit of labor, and Sweden can produce one phone or two computers with one unit of labor. If France can trade only with Sweden, then the theory of comparative advantage suggests that: France should specialize in producing phones and import computers from Sweden. France should specialize in producing computers and import phones from Sweden. France should produce both phones and computers, and import nothing from Sweden. France should import both phones and computers from Sweden. 4 points Question 13 Potato chips and popcorn are substitutes. A subsidy for potato chips will ______the demand for popcorn and the quantity of popcorn sold will ______. (Table: Barrels of Oil) Refer to the table. What is the total amount of producer surplus (per barrel of oil) earned by all four producers if the market price per barrel of oil is $51? Table: Barrels of Oil Minimum willingness to sell Country a single barrel of oil Country A $32.00 Country B 16.00 Country C 17.25 Country D 56.99 increase; increase increase; decrease decrease; decrease decrease; increase 4 points Question 14 In the market for Good X a necessity good without any good substitutes the workers and capital in the industry can easily find work producing other goods. The burden of the tax is likely to fall: more heavily on buyers, given that demand is more inelastic than supply. evenly between buyers and sellers. more heavily on sellers, given that supply is more inelastic than demand. more heavily on buyers, given that demand is more elastic than supply. 4 points Question 15 A U.S. manufacturer arranges to purchase parts from a German supplier for 500,000 euros in six months. The U.S. manufacturer is concerned that the dollar will depreciate against the euro, meaning the dollar cost of the 500,000 euros will rise. What should the U.S. manufacturer do? lobby the Fed to lower interest rates on six-month T-bills buy a futures contract that fixes the dollar cost of 500,000 euros in six months buy an exchange rate contract that pegs the interest rate to the discount rate on interbank loans sell a naked option to cover the output spread 4 points Question 16 Which of the following scenarios would cause a speculator to buy low and sell high ? Farmers expect to have a bumper harvest of corn next year. Imports of corn begin to flood the country. The government is expected to pass legislation making it mandatory for all vehicles to use corn-based fuels within one year. The government is expected to subsidize corn production for farmers. 4 points Question 17 In a market with a price ceiling which of the following is TRUE? Buyers and sellers experience unexploited gains from trade. Resources are allocated to their most efficient uses. The supply of goods is sold by the sellers with the lowest costs. The supply of goods is bought by the buyers with the highest willingness to pay. 4 points Question 18 Consider the following statements: I. Relative to a no-trade situation, if the United States exported wheat, the U.S. domestic wheat price would rise and domestic production of wheat would expand. II. Relative to a no-trade situation, international trade causes prices of all goods to rise. I is true; II is false. I is false; II is true. Both I and II are true. Both I and II are false. 4 points Question 19 As the price of a good fluctuates, a profit-maximizing firm will expand or contract production along its: average cost curve. average product curve. marginal cost curve. marginal product curve. 4 points Question 20 An increase in demand and a decrease in supply occur in a market. What happens to the equilibrium price and quantity? The equilibrium price decreases; the change in the equilibrium quantity is ambiguous. The equilibrium price decreases; the equilibrium quantity increases. The equilibrium price increases; the change in the equilibrium quantity is ambiguous. The equilibrium price increases; the equilibrium quantity decreases.

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