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A recent report on GDP growth rates showed that the GDP of Dorada, a developed economy, has declined by 1.5 percent this year. Emily George and her friend Tabitha Jude, both students of economics, are discussing the possible reasons for the decline in the growth rate. Emily feels that the government deficit has reached an unsustainable level, as a result of which interest rates now are extremely high. This has reduced government expenditure in recent times, leading to a decline in GDP. Tabitha however disagrees. According to her, the fall in GDP must imply a fall in consumer spending as household consumption accounts for the largest share in Dorada's GDP. Which of the following, if true, will strengthen Emily's claim that the high fiscal deficit is affecting the government's ability to spend?

A. The central government's grants-in-aid to the local governments increased by 7 percent.

B. A sizeable portion of the tax revenue generated in Dorada is being used to make interest payments on sovereign debt.

C. The President's economic advisory council is of the opinion that the fiscal deficit should not exceed 3 percent of the country's GDP.

D. Given that the government of Dorada has never defaulted on sovereign debt, it enjoys very high credit ratings.

E. The government of Dorada scaled up its defense expenditure by more than 50 percent in the last two years.

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Joshua Stredder
Joshua StredderLv10
28 Sep 2019

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Related questions

Question 3

According to Joseph Schumpeter, the theory of creative destruction describes a process by which

A

some new products unleash a gale of destruction that drive other new products out of the market.
B

new products unleash a gale of destruction that drives old products out of the market.
C

new products are created by the destruction of capital.
D

the creation of new products never involves the destruction of old products.

Question 4

Which of the following countries had the highest GDP per capita in 2012?

A Qatar
B

United States
C

Japan
D

Norway

Question 5

________ save a ________ of their income. This ________ capital in their economy and raises economic growth.

A

Developing countries; large proportion; decreases
B

Developing countries; small proportion; increases
C

High-income countries; large proportion; increases
D

High-income countries; small proportion; increases

Question 6

The demand for loanable funds is determined by the willingness of ________ to borrow money to engage in new investment projects.

A

A

government
B

households
C

banks
D

firms

Question 7

The U.S. economy has been more stable since 1950.

True

False

Question 8

When the economy reaches a trough in a business cycle, which of the following will occur?

A

Income, production, and employment will continue to fall.
B

Income, production, and employment will begin to rise.
C

Income and production will rise, but employment will continue to fall.
D

Employment rises, but income and production will continue to fall.

Question 9

In a closed economy, what is the relationship between saving and investment?

A

Saving is greater than investment.
B

Investment is greater than saving.
C

Investment is equal to saving.
D

Investment may be greater or smaller than saving.

Question 10

The per-worker production function shows the relationship between ________ per hour worked and ________ per hour worked, holding ________ constant.

A

labor; real GDP; technology
B

capital; real GDP; technology
C

labor; capital; real GDP
D

capital; labor; real GDP

Question 11

New growth theory states that increases in ________ capital will result in ________ at the ________ level.

A

knowledge; increasing returns to scale; firm
B

physical; decreasing returns to scale; firm
C

knowledge; decreasing returns to scale; economy
D

knowledge; increasing returns to scale; economy

Question 12

Which of the following is not a reason why the Industrial Revolution occurred when and where it did?

A

The British government was committed to upholding private property rights.
B

The British government was able to eliminate arbitrary increases in taxes.
C

The British government was able to more easily seize wealth.
D

Institutional changes by the British government helped protect wealth.

Question 13

Growth in real GDP per capita for the world economy was greatest during

A

the seventeenth century.
B

the eighteenth century.
C

the nineteenth century.
D

the twentieth century.

Question 14

Which of the following is a normative statement about economic growth?

A

Economic growth is associated with higher labor productivity growth.
B

Economic growth increases GDP per capita.
C

Economic growth hurts developing countries.
D

Foreign direct investment stimulates economic growth.

Question 15

The effect of a recession on a company like Whirlpool Corporation is such that

A

sales decline more sharply for Whirlpool as compared to firms that do not produce durable goods.
B

profits fall less sharply as compared to firms that do not produce durable goods.
C

the decline in sales is more short-lived as compared to firms that do not produce durable goods.
D

there is no difference in the impact of the recession on its profits as compared to firms that do not produce durable goods.

Question 16

For the recessions in the United States since the 1950s,

A

cyclical unemployment has been non-existent.
B

unemployment rises on average by about 1.2 percentage points 12 months after a recession begins.
C

unemployment falls on average by 2 percentage points 12 months after a recession begins.
D

unemployment rises on average about 5 percentage points 12 months after a recession begins.

Question 17

You are an economic advisor to the president. You are asked to recommend a policy to promote long-term economic growth in the economy. Which of the following policies would you choose?

A

a reduction in sales taxes
B

an investment tax credit
C

a reduction in taxes on luxury yachts
D

All of these

Question 18

In comparison to a government that runs a balanced budget, when the government runs a budget deficit,

A

the equilibrium interest rate will fall.
B

business investment will fall.
C

household savings will fall.
D

None of these

Question 19

If labor productivity growth slows down in a country, this means that the growth rate in ________ has declined.

A

labor force participation
B

the quantity of goods or services that can be produced by one hour of work
C

the working-age population
D

nominal GDP

Question 20

Policies to promote growth by increasing saving and investment work through

A

decreasing the supply of loanable funds, lowering the interest rate, raising the level of investment in physical capital.
B

increasing the supply of loanable funds, increasing the interest rate, raising the level of investment in physical capital.
C

increasing the supply of loanable funds, lowering the interest rate, lowering the level of investment in physical capital.
D

increasing the supply of loanable funds, lowering the interest rate, raising the level of investment in physical capital.

Big banks urge Ottawa to spend $20-billion in rapid stimulus

"Two of Canada's big banks want the federal government to pump $20-billion into an economic stimulus for a fast jolt to the flagging economy. Bank of Nova Scotia urged Ottawa to spend that much by mid-2017. Such a measure, the bank said, would equal 1 percent of gross domestic product and would play into its new economic forecast for GDP growth of 1.3 percent this year and 2.5 percent next. Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce called for $20-billion in the government's first year, saying the pledges on the table just aren't enough. The Liberal government of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has indeed promised to spend billions in infrastructure stimulus. But, beyond the recent campaign pledges, there have been no details on the final amount, the targets, and the timeline. And remember, the fiscal outlook has changed rapidly, with the Liberals now forecasting a deficit of $18-billion even without their promised spending. Canadians will get the details when Finance Minister Bill Morneau unveils his budget on March 22. While Scotiabank and CIBC are the first to have specific calls, other bank economists have said the further stimulus would be welcome, and that the government certainly has the fiscal room to accommodate it. Scotiabank painted a weak economic picture for 2016, particularly for the oil-shocked province of Alberta, and a national unemployment rate that will top 7 per cent this year and next. It projected the economy of Alberta, which had been the country's economic engine until the oil route, will contract by a further 1.9 percent this year, with a jobless rate of 7.5 percent. Our Canadian forecast incorporates our recommendation for the federal fiscal stimulus of $20-billion, equivalent to 1 per cent of GDP, implemented during the second of 2016 and the first half of 2017, said Aron Gampel, Scotiabank's deputy chief economist. "This stimulus would be over and above the deficit resulting from weaker economic conditions, estimated for fiscal 2016-17 at $18-billion by the federal government," he added. "The stimulus should be designed to: deliver a rapid economic impact; raise Canada's economic capacity and thus our longer-term growth prospects; and, facilitate adjustments in the provinces most affected by weak commodity prices. Once the Canadian economy no longer requires policy support, targeting a declining ratio of net debt-to-GDP should resume." CIBC also weighed in on the stimulus debate today, calling for $20-billion in stimulus over two years. The Liberal pledges had been for $5-billion infrastructure and a further $5-billion in other measures in their first two years in power. But CIBC World Markets doesn't think that's enough given the country's economic troubles. "Federal stimulus under that scenario would be barely more than 0.5 percent of GDP, arguably too little to do the job, particularly with some provinces applying fiscal brakes," said CIBC's Royce Mendes and Avery Shenfeld. "We see a $20-billion stimulus program with a $40-billion deficit as being more appropriate, but given the political sensitivities, the government might show something closer to $35-billion for 2016-17, while perhaps taking on some further stimulus charged to the outgoing year." Some academics believe that in this low-interest-rate environment, what we need is a strong blast of fiscal stimulus to drive employment and growth. They argue that we should reject fiscal austerity and embrace public investment. Indeed, that has been the primary economic platform for the Liberal party, and for some, the reason for them winning a majority in the last election."

(a) The IMF "It is Mostly Fiscal" appears to be what Trudeau and his economic team have bought into. Explain why further fiscal austerity could be particularly painful for the Canadian economy, and how deficit spending may lower the government debt to GDP ratio. Be sure to illustrate using the IS-LM and the AD-AS frameworks.

(b) Discuss why Canadian banks are particularly concerned that the government fiscal stimulus plan may not be enough.

(c) Discuss what are some of the problems with using expansionary monetary policy in an environment of low interest rates. That is, describe the problem of a "liquidity trap."

1. Why Niall Ferguson thought that the expansionary fiscal policy (or government deficit) could produce crowding-out effect? You can explain by using the IS-LM model or you can use the logic of loanable funds theory

Answer: Ferguson believes that an increase in the government deficit could produce a crowding-out-effect. First, I will touch base on fiscal policy. Well, what is it? Basically, it adjusts the nation’s spending amount which increases the economy’s deficit to close a recessionary gap, which therefore increases the the demand for loans, meaning people want to borrow money. An increase in demand for loans leads to an increase in interest rates. Higher interest rates lead to a decrease in investment and interest-sensitive consumer spending, so both C and I decrease. That’s what the crowding-out-effect is, the decrease in investment due to higher interest rates.

>in Deficit = >in Demand for Loans = >in interest rates =

The government speeds up the economy by deficit spending, they crowd out consumers and investors with high interest rates. So what this means is that the government is attempting to help the economy but it is actually hurting the economy. The reason why I think Ferguson believes this is because of what he says in his debate at the New York Review of Books, that “you can’t be both a monetarist and a Keynesian simultaneously—at least I can’t see how you can, because if the aim of the monetarist policy is to keep interest rates down, to keep liquidity high, the effect of the Keynesian policy must be to drive interest rates up.” He continues on in the interview to say that the Fed has minted out a fresh $1.75 billion in bonds and that no one is going to buy them. Driving up bonds will increase interest rates which increases mortgage rates which is why he basically doesn’t agree with the Keynesian theory.

2. Why Paul Krugman thinks that Niall Ferguson was wrong and thought that government deficit could not produce a crowding-out effect? In other words, please explain Krugman's Liquidity trap .

Answer: To start I think Krugman believes that the Fiscal policy is effective. It is effective when the Liquidity-Money (LM) curve is horizontal. It creates the crowding in effect. The supply of money is constant so it creates money demanded to be interest inelastic, meaning it doesn’t change. So if the government wishes to stimulate the economy, it leaves interest rates at a constant rate, and an increase in investment and saving, therefore helping the economy close the gap on a recession. There is an indifference between money and bonds so this makes fiscal policy effective. So then we get into a monetary expansion, meaning we have an increase in the money supply. Well with the liquidity trap, we get the case that the investment-savings (IS) curve is horizontal. So when the government increases the money supply, investment responds to rapidly changing interest rates, which would decrease the money demanded, making monetary policy effective. But the liquidity trap becomes apparent because interest rates cannot fall below zero percent. This is when monetary policy would become ineffective because interest rates aren’t declining meaning investment wouldn’t continue. Krugman in his blog basically argues this. He states “Most spectacularly, IS-LM turns out to be very useful for thinking about extreme conditions like the present, in which private demand has fallen so far that the economy remains depressed even at a zero interest rate.” He sums up his argument for the liquidity trap and explains his logic behind the investment-savings, liquidity-money curve, and that is why he disagrees with Ferguson.

3. In the discussion, other discussants such as George Soros and Robin Wells pointed out some interesting issues. Please provide at least one thing that you agree and one thing that you disagree. Discuss in details why you think so.

Answer: One thing I found interesting was George Soro’s point in the debate in the New York review of books. He states “The other feature is that the financial system collapsed of its own weight. That contradicted the prevailing view about financial markets, namely that they tend toward equilibrium, and that equilibrium is disturbed by extraneous forces, outside shocks. Those disturbances were supposed to occur in a random fashion. Markets were seen basically as self-correcting. That paradigm has proven to be false. So we are dealing not only with the collapse of a financial system, but also with the collapse of a worldview.” He continues to mention how Obama has 2 problems he has to face and how people who are viewing this crisis the same as the previous financial crisis, are making a huge mistake. To explain he states this: “But when you have a collapse of credit there’s only one source of credit that is still credible, and that’s the state: the Federal Reserve and the Treasury. Then you have actually to inject a lot more leverage and money into the economy; you have to print money as fast as you can, expand the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve, increase the national debt. And that is, in fact, what has been done, which is the right thing to do. But then once this policy is successful, you have to rein in the money supply as fast as you can.” I think Soro is agreeing with Krugman and the monetary policy of pumping money into the economy. It will raise the money supply which eventually is left for us to capitalize on supply and let our GDP. Now I find this interesting because he is also agreeing with Krugman’s IS-LM model, and later on, we come to find out that even Ferguson had come to an agreement with Krugman’s points, with the exception being that the United States was a powerhouse, and therefore the European Union would eventually see its downfall.

Please make comments to the answer of discussion I provided above(at least 300 words total). And you can start with "I agree with you on some points... But I disagree with you on some points".

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