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Considertwomodels for estimating, in advance of an election, the share of votes that will go to rival candidates. According to one model, pollsters surveys of a randomly chosen set of registered voters before an election can be used to forecast the percentage of votes that each candidate will receive. The first model relies on the assumption that unpaid survey respondents will give truthful responses about how they will vote and that they will cast a ballot in the election. The other model uses prices of financial assets (legally binding IOUs) issued by the Iowa Electronic Market, operated by the University of Iowa, to predict electoral outcomes. The final payments received by owners of these assets, which can be bought or sold during the weeks and days preceding an election, depending on the shares of votes the candidates end up receiving. The second model assumes that owners of these assets wish to earn the highest possible returns, and it indicates that the market prices of these assets indicate the percentage of votes that each candidate will receive on the day of the election.

  1. Which of these two models for forecasting electoral results is more firmly based on the rationality assumption of economic?
  1. How would an economist evaluate which is the better model for forecasting electoral outcomes?

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Insha Fatima
Insha FatimaLv10
28 Sep 2019

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Related questions

6. Though political pundits on television and radio inform the public, they also have to be concerned with

a. Entertainment value to increase their ratings.b. All of these.c. Making their audiences feel better about America.d. Being factually correct.

7. Social movements have been important sources of social, political, and economic change in the United States.

a. TRUEb. FALSE

8. A double standard exists on the part of advocacy organizations because issues facing advantaged subgroups get more attention than those facing disadvantaged subgroups.

a. TRUEb. FALSE

9. Contemporary political observers echo the two views of de Tocqueville and Madison in how they view the role of political groups.

a. FALSEb. TRUE

10. A national advocacy organization is an interest group

a. That only represents businesses.b. That informally represents broad groups of Americans who have similar interests.c. That represents all Americans whether they are powerful or not.d. That only represents minorities or people with less power in society.

11. The American people believe that justices on the US Supreme Court

a. None of these.b. Should be appointed for life.c. Should be elected and only for a 10-year term.d. Should be elected for life.

12. Regional, cultural, religious, occupational, and ethnic diversity all tend to increase the formation of political groups and social movements.

a. FALSEb. TRUE

13. In the United States, political parties are

a. Relatively rareb. Are a relatively accidental feature of the American historyc. None of thesed. Mentioned in the Constitution

14. Why are interest groups, political organiztions, and social movements so numerous in the US?

a. All of these.b. Because federalism and the separation of powers have created multiple points of access to political institutions.c. Because of the 1st Amendment, which protects speech. association, and the right to petition the government for redress of grievances.d. Because the way people are elected to Congress does not do a very good job of representing minorities, who have to find other ways of getting their needs met.

15. What is the margin of error for a sample of 1000 voters?

a. Plus or minus 3%.b. Plus or minus 1%c. Plus or minus 5%d. Plus or minus 2%

16. E.E. Schactschneider says about the interest groups that claim to work for poor people

a. That they may be making things worse for these people.b. That they do a good job even without handing out small benefits to attract people to their group.c. None of these.d. That they are able to accomplish a great deal even though the poor do not join those groups.

17. Why do the campaign staffs of presidential candidates pass up large states like California and Texas to concentrate on smaller states like New Mexico or Ohio?

a. The large states are just a few and there are more votes altogether in the small states.b. It is easier to persuade people in the small states.c. The large states are reliably red or blue, so the campaigns go after states where the vote is closer and they can take all of the votes even with a small win.d. The large states are just too expensive for campaigning.

18. Jackson notes that equality is generally defined as

a. Equality of process.b. Equality of opportunity.c. Equality of outcomes.d. Equality of results.

19. In an open primary, the voter can choose which primary election--Democratic or Republican--he or she would like to vote in.

a. TRUEb. FALSE

20. The women’s movement can be very active on an issue such as affirmative action in higher education, which afffects their more affluent members, but overlook welfare reform, an important issue for their more disadvantaged or marginalized members.

a. TRUEb. FALSE

21. It is sometimes called "first-past-the-post" and sometimes "winner-take-all," but this kind of election means

a. No matter how many votes are cast and how many candidates the one with the most votes wins.b. None of these.c. The candidates have to have run-off elections until one wins two thirds of the votes.d. The top two candidates have to have a run off election.

22. Public opinion matters because in a democratic system we believe that government policy should follow the public will.

a. TRUEb. FALSE

23. With regard to ideology, Americans

a. Tend to identify with a party by their mid 20s.b. Tend to choose a political affiliation early in life.c. Tend to stay identified with a political party consistently the rest of their lives.d. All of these.

24. Alexis de Tocqueville

a. Found few religious associations in America.b. Wrote at the time of the American revolution in the 1780s.c. Wrote his great book Democracy in America at a time when Americans were forming many interest groups and associations in the 1830s.d. Was appalled at the number of commercial and manufacturing associations he found in America.

25. According to Strolovitch, in judging the effectiveness of an advocacy organization which claims to represent the marginalized,what are the guiding questions we should ask?

a. How active for the intersectionally marginalized are they? Because without that the organization is a failure.b. What coalitions do they form? Because coalitions are the key to success.c. What institutions do they target and what coalitions do they form? Because the political activity is the most important barometer.d. How active for the intersectionally marginalizedn are they, what institutions do they target, and what coalitions do they form?

26. How do the two dominant political parties prevent minor parties from emerging?

a. By using their vast funds and media resources to disparage minor party candidates.b. By refusing to give successful third party candidates leadership positions in the legislature.c. By poaching popular third party candidates before they begin to help their party.d. By manipulating election rules in debates and public funding to discriminate against the minor parties.

27. Since 1836, the republic has been dominated by how many political parties at a time?

a. Threeb. Fivec. Oned. Two

28. As sample size increases, the margin of error

a. Is greater than or equal to the margin of error.b. Stays the same.c. Decreases.d. Increases.

29. Affirmative advocacy

a. Looks for over-represented and under-represented issues in setting the agenda for activityb. Actively seeks out coalitions and works with others at the state and local levelc. All of thesed. Has a proactive agenda

30. The cell-phone only population is likely to include more young people, which pollsters have to take into account

a. TRUEb. FALSE

31. One method that schools use to politically socialize young people is

a. Ask students to watch TV news.b. Tell students who to vote for.c. Ask student to participate in mock elections.d. Ask students to read newspapers.

32. In addition to the legislative branch, advocacy groups target the executive and judicial branches.

a. TRUEb. FALSE

33. The problem with opt-in internet panels is that

a. Participants self-select, leaving out significant sections of the public.b. All of these.c. They have a greater margin of error.d. They do not use scientific methods.

34. An example of an organization which claims to represent a large demographic group is

a. The National Association for the Advancement of Colored People (NAACP).b. All of these.c. The Japanese American Citizen's Leagues (JACL).d. The National Organization of Women (NOW).

35. Conservative and liberal ideologies differ mostly on

a. Campaign finance reform.b. Defense policy only.c. Economic and social issues.d. Civil rights.

36. Despite the fears of some that advocates for marginalized groups appeal to the courts too much, evidence shows that they in fact use the courts reluctantly and as a last resort.

a. FALSEb. TRUE

37. Are Americans more likely to vote in presidential elections than other types of elections?

a. No, Americans like to vote for direct democracy issues rather than indirect democracy representation.b. Yes, consistently American participate in presidential elections over other elections.c. Only in years when the presidential election is particularly interesting.d. No, because Americans are more interested in local issues.

38. The key way in which political parties enable democracy is

a. They stimulate interest among members of the mass publicb. All of thesec. They keep elected officials responsived. They allow a broader spectrum of participants to become involved in politics

39. In democracies around the world, multi-party systems are much more common and one sees small parties that advocate for one issue, one religion, or one demographic group.

a. TRUEb. FALSE

40. Poll results vary based on

a. Whether the method used was approved by the Census Bureau.b. Mean, median, and mode.c. Survey mode, sample size, and population definition.d. The statistical application of the Weights and Measures Bureau’s guidelines.

41. Voters who like a third party are nevertheless inclined to vote for a dominant party candidate for fear they will waste their votes.

a. FALSEb. TRUE

42. National organizations that file amicus curiae briefs are targeting

a. The Congress.b. The courts.c. The presidency.d. The Federal Reserve Bank.

43. Small racial, ethnic, or religious groups in the US

a. Don't have quotas for seats in the schools or government as they do in India.b. Do not have a party which is dedicated to their interests.c. Do not have legislative representation as is the cases in other countries with proportional representation.d. All of these.

44. When is the candidate's website NOT a good source of information?

a. To find more information about the candidate's biography.b. To find out more about the candidate's positions on the issues.c. To find an unbiased account of the candidate's voting history.d. To find out which prominent people and organizations support the candidate.

45. According to the "funnel of causality," party identification is more psychological than anything.

a. FALSEb. TRUE

46. The agencies which connect people to government are called "linkage mechanisms."

a. TRUEb. FALSE

47. Some theorists argue against the pluralists with a "rational actor" argument that says

a. That people are rational and want to maximize benefits and minimize effort, so they do not spend their time and resources to organize.b. That rational people always seek public goods.c. That it is rational to organize to acquire more public goods.d. That rational people really do not want the public goods as much as theorists think.

48. According to Jackson, the digital revolution has given us more information about the candidates,

a. And the candidates usually approve of the things written about them.b. And the information is usually quite accurate.c. But the information is not always accurate.d. But it is not very detailed.

49. Red states mean states that usually vote for the Democratic Party, while blue states mean those that are reliable for the Republican Party.

a. FALSEb. TRUE

50. According to Jackson, what is a core political value that nearly all Americans accept?

a. Equalityb. Democracyc. Libertyd. All of these

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