MHR 405 Lecture Notes - Lecture 4: Mental Models, Scenario Planning, Satisficing
28 Feb 2022
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Target canada made a series of decisions that led to 17,600 people out of work, creditor protection, billions of dollars lost and a damaged reputation. View that effective decision makers identify, and apply the best possible alternative. Subjective expected utility - determines choice with highest value (maximization)* Decision making process - systemic stages of decisions. Problems/opportunities are constructed from ambiguous information, not "given" to us. Knowing what to deal with/understanding what needs to be done (containing in a frame) Not being indecisive, paints a clear vision and the path to them. Heuristics - taking short cuts when making decisions. Preconceived mental models of business success prevented excite executives, from recognizing the potential of google"s search engine. Discuss the situation with colleagues - see different perspectives. We are anchored by and don"t move far from an initial anchor point (e. g. We estimate probabilities by how easy we can recall the event, even though other factors influence ease of recall.
