ENVS 3010 Lecture Notes - Lecture 6: General Circulation Model, Radiative Forcing, Black Carbon

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Summary 6: climate models future climate: general circulation model (gcm) Lecture objectives: be able to calculate anomalies, explain how a general circulation model (gcm) works, understand why climate prediction use model averages. When analyzing a graph of radiative forcing relative to 1759 for total anthropogenic factors, various greenhouse gases, aerosols, land use changes, and changes in solar irradiance, a couple conclusions can be made. Total anthropogenic radiative forcing relative to 1750 keeps increasing. Recall from summary 3 that positive radiative forcing means there is more incoming radiation than outgoing, which results in more energy trapped in our atmosphere and thus in higher temperatures. Co2 emission is leading to the highest positive change in radiative forcing, and methane is a close second. While most halocarbons lead to a positive radiative forcing, ozone is the exception. The cooling effect is due to the way the ozone layer acts to reflect incoming solar radiation.

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