ECON 002 Lecture Notes - Lecture 10: Automatic Stabilizer, Potential Output, Business Cycle

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1 Aug 2018
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Governments could have: output targets: ****, unemployment targets: not in this class, price targets: later on when monetary policy. Suppose the government has an output target and call that target yn. This is called the natural rate of output or potential output = output the economy would achieve at the natural rate of unemployment. When the current level of output is not on target (i. e. at its natural rate) then we have a deviation that is called (income) tax revenues t = * y. = average marginal tax rate on income (%). Intuition:tax revenues are proportional to gdp because when y increases (decreases), tax revenues increase (decreases) because there are more (less) earnings in the economy. Deficits are typically countercyclical (rise when y falls and fall when y rises) Even if the govt has a fiscal policy that would lead to no deficits at yn, deficits could still occur. The reason is simple: y does not always equal yn.

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