CIS 140 Lecture Notes - Lecture 13: Decision-Making, Guesstimate, Availability Heuristic
20 Dec 2018
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Document Summary
Method/procedure that rapidly leads to a solution that is typically reasonably close to best possible answer. Representativeness heuristic- people judge prob of outcome based on extent to which its representative of the generating process- using this ignores logic of situation in this case. Representativeness heuristic- leads to insensitivity to priors, insensitivity to sample size: ex (sample size): steve example- description of him makes people think hes more likely a librarian rather than a farmer, but way more farmers than librarians. Regression to the mean- after something really good/really bad happens- generally after something good happens, next time will be worse bc you have a greater chance of being closer to the mean (which is not as good). Availability heuristic- ex: homocides get reported more often than diabetes deaths, so you think homocides are more common. Anchoring heuristic- don"t know answer so we make ballpark estimate and adjust from there.
