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ECON 104 Lecture Notes - Lecture 15: Aggregate Supply

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tealcrocodile688
25 Apr 2017
School
UMASS-Amherst
Department
Economics
Course
ECON 104
Professor
Ozgur Orhangazi

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Document Summary

The level of net taxes, t (tax minus transfer payments) is an important variable. When an expansionary fiscal policy works well : Depends on where your economy started from, the graph is exponential. E. g. if the expansion goes from a flat point, then an expansion is good because you can increase production without prices rising too high. If the e(cid:454)pa(cid:374)sio(cid:374) starts fro(cid:373) a(cid:374) alread(cid:455) high gradie(cid:374)t, the(cid:374) e(cid:454)pa(cid:374)sio(cid:374) is(cid:374)"t the (cid:271)est (cid:271)e(cid:272)ause expansion is weak family. Every 3 months, the fed has a meeting and stuff they will talk about where the economy is going yeah. Make sure you know how the aggregate supply moves. Must know what the total production of an economy is. Policy makers will discuss if the gov. policy is good or not, whether the economy is increasing the gdp etc etc.

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Related Questions

You hear on the nightly news that the president has vowed to decrease the nation's debt. Both the government and private citizens will have to buckle down and learn to do without, he says.

In order to reduce its debt, a nation must:

A. run lower deficits.
B. decrease tax rates.
C. run lower surpluses.
D. increase in government spending.

Debt reduction will result in:

A. more public works projects, higher transfer payments, and more money available for households to spend.
B. fewer public works projects, higher transfer payments, and more money available for households to spend.
C. more public works projects, lower transfer payments, and less money available for households to spend.
D. fewer public works projects, lower transfer payments, and less money available for households to spend.

A friend of yours looks at the state of the U.S. debt in 2011 and tells you, Since the debt is so high, we must be running an incredibly large deficit every year. Your friend's analysis is:

A. not valid, because the debt is always changing even when deficits are the same.
B. not valid, because the debt can be high even when the deficit for an individual year is small.
C. valid, because the debt is always changing even when deficits are the same.
D. valid, because the public debt is the sum of all deficits and surpluses run by the government over time and can be high even when the deficit for an individual year is small.

Assume that the government in some nations intended to respond to low employment via fiscal policy.

a. What type of policy would this require?

A. A contractionary fiscal policy designed to decrease the aggregate demand curve.
B. An expansionary fiscal policy designed to decrease the aggregate demand curve.
C. An expansionary fiscal policy designed to increase the aggregate demand curve.
D. A contractionary fiscal policy designed to increase the aggregate demand curve.



b. Assume that this policy ended up having an undesirable outcome. How could this happen in terms of formulation and implementation lags?

A. This could happen if the implementation lag exceeded the formulation lag.
B. This could happen if the formulation lag exceeded the implementation lag.
C. This could happen if the formulation lag and the implementation lag exceeded the expansion.
D. This could happen if the formulation lag and the implementation lag exceeded the recession.

 

Econo Nation started 2008 with no national budget debt or surplus. By the end of 2008, it had a budget surplus of $286 million; in 2009, it had a budget deficit of $-425 million; in 2010, it had a budget surplus of $100 million, and the amount of its budget deficit or surplus in 2011 is unknown. If at the end of 2011 Econo Nation's national debt totalled $52 million, determine the deficit or surplus in 2011.

Instructions: Enter your answer as a whole number and include a negative sign if there is a deficit.

Period Deficit (-) or surplus (+)
Beginning of 2008 $0
End of 2008 $286 million
2009 $-425 million
2010 $100 million
End of 2011 _______ million

1. Why Niall Ferguson thought that the expansionary fiscal policy (or government deficit) could produce crowding-out effect? You can explain by using the IS-LM model or you can use the logic of loanable funds theory

Answer: Ferguson believes that an increase in the government deficit could produce a crowding-out-effect. First, I will touch base on fiscal policy. Well, what is it? Basically, it adjusts the nation’s spending amount which increases the economy’s deficit to close a recessionary gap, which therefore increases the the demand for loans, meaning people want to borrow money. An increase in demand for loans leads to an increase in interest rates. Higher interest rates lead to a decrease in investment and interest-sensitive consumer spending, so both C and I decrease. That’s what the crowding-out-effect is, the decrease in investment due to higher interest rates.

>in Deficit = >in Demand for Loans = >in interest rates =

The government speeds up the economy by deficit spending, they crowd out consumers and investors with high interest rates. So what this means is that the government is attempting to help the economy but it is actually hurting the economy. The reason why I think Ferguson believes this is because of what he says in his debate at the New York Review of Books, that “you can’t be both a monetarist and a Keynesian simultaneously—at least I can’t see how you can, because if the aim of the monetarist policy is to keep interest rates down, to keep liquidity high, the effect of the Keynesian policy must be to drive interest rates up.” He continues on in the interview to say that the Fed has minted out a fresh $1.75 billion in bonds and that no one is going to buy them. Driving up bonds will increase interest rates which increases mortgage rates which is why he basically doesn’t agree with the Keynesian theory.

2. Why Paul Krugman thinks that Niall Ferguson was wrong and thought that government deficit could not produce a crowding-out effect? In other words, please explain Krugman's Liquidity trap .

Answer: To start I think Krugman believes that the Fiscal policy is effective. It is effective when the Liquidity-Money (LM) curve is horizontal. It creates the crowding in effect. The supply of money is constant so it creates money demanded to be interest inelastic, meaning it doesn’t change. So if the government wishes to stimulate the economy, it leaves interest rates at a constant rate, and an increase in investment and saving, therefore helping the economy close the gap on a recession. There is an indifference between money and bonds so this makes fiscal policy effective. So then we get into a monetary expansion, meaning we have an increase in the money supply. Well with the liquidity trap, we get the case that the investment-savings (IS) curve is horizontal. So when the government increases the money supply, investment responds to rapidly changing interest rates, which would decrease the money demanded, making monetary policy effective. But the liquidity trap becomes apparent because interest rates cannot fall below zero percent. This is when monetary policy would become ineffective because interest rates aren’t declining meaning investment wouldn’t continue. Krugman in his blog basically argues this. He states “Most spectacularly, IS-LM turns out to be very useful for thinking about extreme conditions like the present, in which private demand has fallen so far that the economy remains depressed even at a zero interest rate.” He sums up his argument for the liquidity trap and explains his logic behind the investment-savings, liquidity-money curve, and that is why he disagrees with Ferguson.

3. In the discussion, other discussants such as George Soros and Robin Wells pointed out some interesting issues. Please provide at least one thing that you agree and one thing that you disagree. Discuss in details why you think so.

Answer: One thing I found interesting was George Soro’s point in the debate in the New York review of books. He states “The other feature is that the financial system collapsed of its own weight. That contradicted the prevailing view about financial markets, namely that they tend toward equilibrium, and that equilibrium is disturbed by extraneous forces, outside shocks. Those disturbances were supposed to occur in a random fashion. Markets were seen basically as self-correcting. That paradigm has proven to be false. So we are dealing not only with the collapse of a financial system, but also with the collapse of a worldview.” He continues to mention how Obama has 2 problems he has to face and how people who are viewing this crisis the same as the previous financial crisis, are making a huge mistake. To explain he states this: “But when you have a collapse of credit there’s only one source of credit that is still credible, and that’s the state: the Federal Reserve and the Treasury. Then you have actually to inject a lot more leverage and money into the economy; you have to print money as fast as you can, expand the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve, increase the national debt. And that is, in fact, what has been done, which is the right thing to do. But then once this policy is successful, you have to rein in the money supply as fast as you can.” I think Soro is agreeing with Krugman and the monetary policy of pumping money into the economy. It will raise the money supply which eventually is left for us to capitalize on supply and let our GDP. Now I find this interesting because he is also agreeing with Krugman’s IS-LM model, and later on, we come to find out that even Ferguson had come to an agreement with Krugman’s points, with the exception being that the United States was a powerhouse, and therefore the European Union would eventually see its downfall.

Please make comments to the answer of discussion I provided above(at least 300 words total). And you can start with "I agree with you on some points... But I disagree with you on some points".

Question 32

  1. Tim, a citizen of the United States living in Virginia, buys a computer that was made in South Korea by a Japanese firm. This transaction would affect the GDP of the United States in which way?

    Net exports would decrease and GDP would decrease.

    Net exports would decrease and GDP would be unaffected.

    Net exports would increase and GDP would increase.

    Net exports would increase and consumption would increase.

1 points

Question 33

  1. An increase in U.S. government spending tends to

    increase U.S. interest rates and increase the U.S. capital account surplus.

    increase U.S. interest rates and decrease the U.S. capital account surplus.

    decrease U.S. interest rates and increase the U.S. capital account surplus.

    decrease U.S. interest rates and decrease the U.S. capital account surplus.

1 points

Question 34

  1. A _______ is a system in which the government intervenes extensively in the foreign exchange market to keep the exchange rate within certain bounds.

    dirty float

    floating exchange rate

    fixed exchange rate

    dollarization

1 points

Question 35

  1. Suppose the exchange rate between the euro and the dollar is E0.5 to $1. If a Big Mac costs $3 in the United States and E1.5 in Germany, then the real exchange rate is

    1:1.

    2:1.

    1:2.

    It cannot be determined from this information.

1 points

Question 36

  1. Which of the following prevent the purchasing power parity theorem from holding perfectly?

    transportation costs

    goods that cannot be shipped

    tariffs and quotas

    Each of these answers is correct.

1 points

Question 37

  1. Fiscal policy is more effective in affecting economic activity if

    many resources are unemployed.

    there is a real shock instead of an aggregate demand shock.

    the economy returns to the long-run condition almost immediately.

    there is a long implementation lag.

1 points

Question 38

  1. In a typical year, changes in government spending compared to overall spending are relatively

    small.

    large.

    unpredictable.

    well-timed.

1 points

Question 39

  1. Which statement is TRUE about the difference between monetary and fiscal policy?

    Fiscal policy can quickly adjust to changes in aggregate demand.

    Fiscal policy can have a more direct impact.

    Monetary policy is subject to many long lags.

    Monetary policy can affect the economy regardless of the actions banks take.

1 points

Question 40

  1. Fiscal policies that help an economy in a recession without additional actions by policy makers are called

    consumption smoothers.

    Ricardian equalizers.

    automatic stabilizers.

    Each of these answers is correct.

1 points

Question 41

  1. The U.S. individual income tax system can best be described as a

    regressive tax system.

    flat tax system.

    zero tax system.

    progressive tax system.

1 points

Question 42

  1. What demographic change in the United States will cause government spending to increase in the next 50 years?

    The population over 65 will grow.

    The population will be younger.

    Women will have fewer children.

    Immigration will increase.

1 points

Question 43

  1. What kind of rising costs will mostly cause U.S. government spending to skyrocket in the future?

    defense

    environmental protection

    education

    health care

1 points

Question 47

  1. The Fed could have popped the bubble of the housing boom in the 2000s by

    lending directly to homeowners.

    regulating the stock markets more.

    reducing the growth rate of the money supply.

    doing nothing.

1 points

Question 48

  1. Which of the following would be an example of running monetary policy by rules?

    A 5 percent increase in money supply automatically leads to a 2 percent increase in real GDP.

    An increase in money supply automatically leads to an increase in inflation.

    The Fed will increase money growth to different levels, depending on the severity of the recession.

    A 1 percent drop in real GDP will automatically elicit a 2 percent increase in money supply.

    Question 50

    Moral hazard occurs when

    the failure of one financial institution can bring down other institutions as well.

    financial institutions take on too much risk because they are insured.

    financial institutions become insolvent because they issued too many loans.

    there are more short-term liabilities than short-term assets.

    Which of the following is NOT a transmission mechanism?

    reductions in the money supply

    intertemporal substitution

    uncertainty

    sticky wages and prices

    Question 56

    For a given increase in government spending growth, intertemporal substitution is more widespread when

    the impact of AD growth on both inflation and real GDP growth is stronger.

    the impact of AD growth on both inflation and real GDP growth is weaker.

    the impact of AD growth on inflation is stronger and the impact of the AD growth on real GDP growth is weaker.

    the impact of AD growth on inflation is weaker and the impact of AD growth on real GDP growth is stronger.

    Stalin:

    instituted democratic reforms, leading to widespread prosperity.

    took government control of the farms in Ukraine, leading to the starvation of millions of people.

    increased the provision of public goods, which had a positive effect on lowering the unemployment rate.

    tried unsuccessfully to expand voting rights in 1924 Russia.

    1 points

    Question 60

    1 points

    Question 59

    If voters care about two issues such as taxes and war, then politicians:

    will form a stable policy on these issues.

    can pose a policy that will never lose against another policy.

    must assume that there is no median voter.

    may never converge on a stable outcome.

    1 points

    Question 58

    Policy A adversely affects 50 million people at a cost of $1 per person. But Policy A also benefits 1,000 people at $30,000 per person. Which of the following statements is true?

    Policy A will not become law because it hurts more people than it helps.

    Policy A concentrates all the costs among a small group of people and all the benefits among a large group of people.

    Policy A is likely to be supported by politicians even though it makes society worse off.

    Since Policy A negatively affects many people, and so rational ignorance will not be a problem.

    1 points

    Question 57

    Data for the United States show that the incumbent party tends to win the election if:
    I. personal disposable income is growing.
    II. the inflation rate is low.
    III. the political party has not been in power for too many continuous terms.

    I only

    I and II only

    I and III only

    I, II, and III

    1 points

    Question 53

    1 points

    Question 52

    What is the purpose of the Fed's structure?

    to give the President of the United States as many tools as possible to regulate the economy

    to make sure all states are given equal access to monetary policy decisions

    to keep the private sector out of the monetary policy making arena

    to keep the power of the Fed dispersed

    1 points

    Question 51

    An increase in money growth will cause inflation to increase in

    the short run only.

    the long run only.

    both the short run and the long run.

    neither the short run nor the long run.