POLSCI 160 Lecture 2: The Logic of Threats & Promises
23 Jan 2019
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Reward - us lifts sanctions b/c iran imposes constraints on nuke program. Punish - us maintains/increases sanctions b/c iran human rights abuse, terrorism. Punish - us lawmakers renew sanctions vs. companies investing in iran. Secondary sanctions = withdrawing such a threat includes u-turn transactions (funds converted thru us bank) Subsidiaries monitored by us treasury even after sanctions lifted . Tradeoff: to ensure iran keeps up agreement, us must offer economic incentive but to ensure iran condemned for terrorism, us must uphold sanctions. Us & eu have separate lists for sanctions both agree what to do, not how to do it. Us also must act to support ally (israel) Ultimatum = submit or war, strongest type of threat. Retaliatory trade sanctions : police agreements to trade barriers. Economic sanctions : threat to restrict trade w/ purpose of changing policy outside trade. Selection effect = threat made tells us what initiator selected as effective/ what initiator.
