POLSCI 160 Lecture Notes - Lecture 6: Baltic States, Anti-Communism
12 Oct 2016
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Lec wed, 9-21 perceptions and their role in decisions. Perceptions matter because actors are uncertain about the setting they face: b does not know if a is resolute or irresolute. B is (cid:374)e(cid:448)e(cid:396) e(cid:454)a(cid:272)tl(cid:455) su(cid:396)e (cid:449)ho the(cid:455)"(cid:396)e squaring up against, so b has to use perceptions to make decisions. Perceptions as probabilities over the set of possibilities: b can look at a as 100% resolute (1,) all the way down to 100% irresolute (0. ) Perceptions influence actions by weighting how likely an actor thinks different outcomes are: example: stalin acquiesced to hitler in 1941 when hitler concentrated a massive army on the frontier of germany and the soviet union. Stalin thought the buildup was to force additional concessions from stalin, to simply intimidate and negotiate. However, hitler was building up to invade the soviet. Stalin did not have high military alertness, and paid the price. E(cid:454)plai(cid:374) ho(cid:449) pe(cid:396)(cid:272)eptio(cid:374)s (cid:396)efle(cid:272)t a(cid:374) a(cid:272)to(cid:396)"s u(cid:374)de(cid:396)sta(cid:374)di(cid:374)g of a(cid:374) u(cid:374)(cid:272)e(cid:396)tai(cid:374) situatio(cid:374).
