ECON 102 Lecture : Econ 102 Trade-Part II.docx

Mexico's automobile industry is booming. Bolstered by $19 billion in new investment from foreign carmakers, including Nissan, Honda, Volkswagen, and Mazda, vehicle production doubled between 2009 and 2014 to an estimated 3.2 million vehicles. This investment surge has transformed Mexico into the eighth-largest automaker in the world, and it's not over yet. In 2014 and 2015, Toyota, Mercedes-Benz, Hyundai-Kia, BMW, and Volkswagen all outlined plans to build new state-of-the-art factories in Mexico. Audi is also constructing a $1.3 billion factory that is slated for producing luxury sport-utility vehicles. The Audi factory is scheduled to open in 2016. Taken together, these new factories represent another $20 billion in investment that will push Mexico past Brazil and South Korea to become the sixth-largest car producer in the world by 2020 with an annual output of 4.7 million vehicles (for comparison, the U.S. industry makes some 11.5 million autos a year). The initial stimulus for the dramatic growth of the Mexican auto industry was the establishment of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in 1994. Prior to NAFTA, Mexico's auto industry was small and protected from foreign competition by high tariff barriers. Car prices in Mexico were two to three times higher than in the United States. Not only were cars in Mexico more expensive, exporting or importing cars and parts was also very tough. Shipments got delayed at the border and were difficult to move around because of poor infrastructure, which is a major problem in an industry in which tight logistics is critical. NAFTA removed most tariff and nontariff barriers to trade between Mexico, the United States, and Canada. This initially led to a flood of low-priced auto imports into Mexico from the United States, but it also gave auto manufacturers based in Mexico duty-free access to the large U.S. market next door. With labor costs in Mexico just a fraction of those in the United States, auto manufacturers now had to consider Mexico when planning new plants to serve the North American market. Mexico's shift to free trade didn't stop with NAFTA. Mexico spent much of the 2000s hammering out free trade deals with over 40 other countries, including the 28 states of the European Union, Japan, and Brazil. These deals give auto factories based in Mexico duty-free access to markets that contain 60 percent of the world's economic output, and they have helped transform Mexico into the fourth-largest auto exporter in the world. Eighty percent of the cars now produced in Mexico are exported to other countries, two-thirds of them to the United States. This unprecedented network of regional trade agreements has given Mexico an important edge when it comes to attracting new investment. For example, when BMW ships cars to Europe from its 20-year-old plant in South Carolina, it is hit with a 10 percent import duty. For a $50,000 car, that amounts to $5,000, which is a much bigger factor than differences in labor costs. A factory in Mexico can supply both the U.S. and the EU markets with duty-free automobiles. This was a major factor behind BMWs 2014 decision to build a new factory in central Mexico rather than the United States, far outweighing the $500 a car labor cost advantage that Mexico currently enjoys over the United States. The new BMW factory will supply the U.S. and EU markets, as well as Latin America. Indeed, because of differences in trade barriers, a car exported from the United States to Brazil costs 55 percent more than one exported from Mexico. As Mexico's auto industry has grown, auto-part suppliers have also followed manufacturers to Mexico. The large auto parts supplier Delphi, for example, has 30 factories in Mexico and generates revenues of $3 billion in the country. Employment at Delphi's facilities doubled to 24,000 between 2007 and 2014. Infrastructure has also improved dramatically, and customs clearance at the border is now quick and efficient. All of this bodes well for the future of the Mexican auto industry. However, not everyone is happy with what has happened. Some argue that growth in Mexico has come at the expense of factories in the United States, which has had a negative impact on employment growth in the U.S. auto industry. When BMW decided to build a factory in central Mexico, for example, it meant that it would not be expanding its South Carolina plant. The South Carolina plant will continue to operate, and no plants have been closed as a result of the growth of production in Mexico, but it is true that new plants are increasingly being located south of the border. Sources: Joann Muller, America's Car Capital Will Soon Be... Mexico,€ Forbes, July 20, 2014; Dudley Althaus and William Boston, Trade Pacts Give Mexico an Edge,” The Wall Street Journal, March 18, 2015; Sonari Glinton, How NAFTA Drove the Auto Industry South, National Public Radio, December 8, 2013; Serena Maria Daniels, Twenty Years after NAFTA, a Mini Detroit Rises in Mexico,” Bridge, September 25, 2014. CASE DISCUSSION QUESTIONS

1. What was the initial impact of NAFTA on the U.S. and Mexican automobile markets? Who benefited most from this?

2. How did the impact of NAFTA start to change location decisions by automobile manufacturers over the years? How did this start to impact automobile production in Mexico and the United States?

3. Mexico has been very proactive in signing regional free trade deals in addition to NAFTA. How has this strategy impacted automobile consumers and producers in Mexico? How has it impacted automobile consumers and producers in the United States?

4. What lessons can United States policymakers draw from the growing success of the Mexican automobile industry that can be applied to future free trade deals, such as the deal currently being negotiated between the United States and the European Union?

Read the articles and consider two people, Mon and Shaman, that can produce 2 goods, shrimp and mobile apps.

If Mon and Shaman devoted themselves to shrimp and mobile app production, the chart below shows how much each person can produce per hour.

Complete the first table by showing how many shrimp and mobile apps each person would produce if they did not specialize.

In a world hungry for cheap shrimp, migrants labor overtime in Thai sheds

By Jason Motlagh, Published: September 19, 2012

Jason Motlagh/For The Washington Post - Burmese migrant workers peel shrimp at a processing factory in Samut Sakhon province in Thailand. High standards allow the factory to export its seafood to the United States.

MAHACHAI, Thailand — At an age when she should have been in a classroom, Thazin Mon discovered her knack for peeling shrimp. To help support her Burmese migrant family, the 14-year-old pulled 16-hour shifts, seven days a week, for less than $3 a day. “I am uneducated, so I work. I have to work bravely,” she says.

Although she was the best peeler in the factory, speed was never enough. Mon was beaten if she slowed down, she said, and when she asked for a day off to rest hands swollen with infection, her boss kicked her and threatened rape.

Thanks to a bottomless appetite for cheap shrimp in the West, Burmese migrants such as Mon are the backbone of a Thai shrimp industry that is the world’s third largest. The United States is Thailand’s top customer, accounting for a third of the country’s annual shrimp exports.

Rights groups say that overseas demand for shrimp products in greater volume has fueled a culture of exploitation in the Thai industry. They insist that the failure of foreign companies to sufficiently verify the origin of the shrimp they import allows abuses to persist.

“If you look at the cost of shrimp overseas, it’s very, very cheap, and that comes from the exploitation inherent in the shrimp industry,” says Andy Hall, an expert on migration at Mahidol University who tracks Burmese labor in the Thai seafood industry.

Brisk business with major U.S. retailers such as Wal-Mart, Costco, Sam’s Club and Red Lobster pumps more than $1 billion in revenue each year into the Thai economy, the second largest in Southeast Asia. As Thai living standards have risen, a shortage of unskilled labor has attracted tens of thousands of Burmese migrants looking to escape the poverty and job scarcity that has gripped their homeland for decades.

Most head to Samut Sakhon province, the heart of the processing industry just south of the capital, Bangkok, where modern facilities line the highway alongside fast-food chains and car dealerships. The more prominent factories are the size of football fields, with neon signage and billboards that feature smiling children. But there’s a darker side behind the scenes, activists say.

Of an estimated 400,000 migrants at work in the province, only about 70,000 are legally registered. The rest are employed illegally in anonymous peeling sheds that supply the larger companies that must fill massive orders from abroad. At this lower end of the supply chain, according to migrant activists, crooked brokers and employers trap scores of Burmese in abusive conditions tantamount to slavery, particularly in the shrimp industry.

“The small factory owners know that most of their workers are undocumented, so they can control the workforce however they want — such as locking workers in until they finish their work,” says Sompong Sakaew, a labor activist based in Mahachai, the provincial capital. “There are also teenagers between 12 and 17 years old in the workforce.”

Sold into waking nightmare

Problems for Burmese migrants typically start as soon as they link up with brokers who promise steady work and a decent salary, only to sell them into a nearly inescapable cycle of debt bondage.

Min Oo, 28, a Burmese farmer who lost his home in a flood, said he paid a broker the equivalent of $500 to smuggle him across the border to Samut Sakhon, with the guarantee of a minimum-wage (about $10 a day) factory job. Instead, he said, the broker sold him into a waking nightmare, with 18-hour workdays in a shrimp-processing factory and net earnings of no more than $20 a week, leaving almost nothing to send home.

In some cases, migrant workers and rights groups allege, police officials or their relatives hold an ownership stake in unregistered peeling sheds. More commonly, the critics say, the authorities or those they protect shake down undocumented workers for bribes to supplement their incomes, knowing that the migrants would rather pay up on the spot than be deported to Burma.

Despite occasional police action and robust anti-trafficking laws, Sakaew, the labor activist, estimates that fully a quarter of the 1,200 to 1,300 factories in Samut Sakhon province are unregistered and, therefore, ripe for abuse. With so much profit-induced apathy on the Thai side, activists say reform pressure must come from Western companies whose trade partnerships drive the shrimp industry.

Codes of conduct

It is difficult to establish precise links between the larger Thai companies that process shrimp of dubious origin and the Western companies whose consumers increasingly demand ethical sourcing.

To do business overseas, Thai companies must qualify for membership in the Thai Frozen Foods Association, which adheres to globally recognized codes of conduct and carries out unscheduled inspections. Spokesman Arthon Piboonthanapatana asserts that anyone found guilty of labor -abuses would be expelled. In more than three years of inspections, he said, this has never happened.

“If the shrimp is from TFFA members, I can 100 percent guarantee” that it is produced without labor exploitation, he said.

But critics say that until the Thai shrimp industry requires larger factories to provide records of lower-level suppliers and follows through with random inspections, the shrimp it exports will remain tainted by human trafficking and labor abuses.

For the past three years, the State Department has given Thailand a poor grade on human trafficking, citing it among countries that do not fully comply with the minimum standards for efforts to combat the problem.

After the release of the department’s report in 2012, Thai Foreign Minister Surapong Tovichakchaikul said his country would improve its performance by strengthening cooperation among agencies tasked with fighting human trafficking.

Motlagh reported with a grant from the Pulitzer Center on Crisis Reporting.

More world news coverage: - Turmoil in Egypt stalls talks on U.S. aid - Suicide blast kills 12 near Afghan capital’s international airport - U.S. troops to cut missions with Afghan forces - Read more headlines from around the world.

Google reportedly acquiring Waze app for $1.3 billion

News ends months of rumors on deals with Apple, Facebook, or Google, according to Globes; Waze source refuses to comment

By David Shamah June 9, 2013, 7:20 pm

Waze co-founder Uri Levine at a Jerusalem conference in May (photo credit: Flash90)

After dating at least three of the biggest tech companies in the world, it appeared Sunday night that Waze was finally getting the ring — one worth $1.3 billion, according to a report in the Israeli business newspaper Globes.

That’s the sum Google has reportedly agreed to pay for Waze, the Ra’anana-based crowdsourced driving and navigation app with 50 million users around the world. The figure is $300 million higher than Facebook reportedly offered to pay for the firm earlier this year.

A company source contacted by The Times of Israel had no comment on whether talks with Google (or any other party) were on or off. “We don’t comment on rumors and speculation in general,” the source said.

The purchase, reported by Globes citing an anonymous source, would be the biggest buyout yet for an Israeli consumer firm, far outstripping Face.com’s $60-million sale to Facebook last year. Indeed, it is believed that it would be the biggest sum paid for any app, ever.

In May, it was rumored that Facebook had offered nearly $1 billion for Waze, but negotiations broke down several weeks later, apparently over Facebook’s insistence that Waze move its R&D from Israel to one of Facebook’s existing facilities, in the US or Britain. Several weeks later, it was reported that Google was interested in Waze, and that the search giant had offered as much as $1 billion for the company as well.

Previous rumors — earlier this year — had Apple as a prospective Waze buyer, with an offer of $400 million for the Israeli company.

A Google-Waze deal would likely not get snagged over location; Google already has several large R&D facilities in Israel, and employs hundreds of engineers here. Integrating the already existing Waze group into the Google infrastructure would be much simpler than getting Waze integrated with Facebook, local social media expert Yotam Tavor told The Times of Israel.

However, it appears that location wasn’t the only issue. As recently as several weeks ago — amid the rumors that Google was poised to make an offer for Waze — company insiders were quoted in news reports as saying that members of the Waze board of directors believed that they would be selling themselves short if they “settled” for $1 billion — and that they could raise much more with an IPO. How much Waze would fetch in an IPO isn’t clear, but if the latest report is true, Google apparently agrees with the Waze officials opposed to a sale.

Google already has its own mapping and driving app, and competes with Waze, but the latter dominates in most of the markets where Google’s Navigator app is used. As such, Google and Waze are competing in the same space, but most users agree that the Waze app is much more elegant and user-friendly than the Google one.

In addition, Waze has built an active and loyal social network, which is highly engaged with the app, as well as a built-in mobile ad platform. In its latest version, it supplies Google Maps-like recommendations — making it a perfect match for Google, Tavor said.

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Suppose Mon and Shaman do not specialize according to comparative advantage and exchange but instead choose to be self-sufficient.

Further, they devote half of their hours in each year to each good and they consume everything they produce domestically.

After specialization according to comparative advantage, they exchange 5,000 apps for 75,000 shrimp.

Compute values for the numbered cells.

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What is the opportunity cost of producing shrimp for Mon?

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What is the opportunity cost of producing shrimp for Shaman?

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What is the opportunity cost of producing Mobile Apps for Mon?

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What is the opportunity cost of producing Mobile Apps for Shaman?

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1.) Before specialization, how much shrimp will Mon produce?

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2.) Before specialization, how many mobile apps will Mon produce?

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3.) Before specialization, how much shrimp will Shaman produce?

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4.) Before specialization, how many mobile apps will Shaman produce?

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5.) If they specialize according to comparative advantage, how much shrimp will Mon produce?

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6.) If they specialize according to comparative advantage, how many mobile apps will Mon produce?

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7.) If they specialize according to comparative advantage, how much shrimp will Shaman produce?

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8.) If they specialize according to comparative advantage, how many mobile apps will Shaman produce?

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9.) After specialization according to comparative advantage, they exchange 5,000 apps for 75,000 shrimp, i.e. each country sells some of the good in which they have a comparative advantage for the good in which they have a comparative disadvantage.

How much shrimp will Mon trade?

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10.) How many mobile apps will Mon trade?

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11.) How much shrimp will Shaman trade?

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12.) How many mobile apps will Shaman trade?

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13.) After trade, how much shrimp will Mon consume?

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14.) After trade, how many mobile apps will Mon consume?

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15.) After trade, how much shrimp will Shaman consume?

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16.) After trade, how many mobile apps will Shaman consume?

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17.) After trade, Mon’s shrimp consumption increased by how much?

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18.) After trade, Mon’s mobile app consumption increased by how much?

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19.) After trade, Shaman’s shrimp consumption increased by how much?

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20.) After trade, Shaman’s mobile consumption increased by how much?

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What is the total amount of shrimp produced if Mon fully specializes in shrimp production?

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What is the total amount of shrimp produced if Shaman fully specializes in shrimp production?

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How many mobile apps will Mon produce if she fully specializes in producing mobile apps?

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How many mobile apps will Shaman produce if he fully specializes in producing mobile apps?

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4. (Part A) Suppose the USA and China are considering whether to engage in trade. Here are the production possibilities of the two countries before trade occurs:

Table 1. Production of Apparel or Chemicals in the USA and China.

The Opportunity Costs of producing one product or the other are displayed.

1000’s of Tons of

Apparel Units Chemicals

Nation Produced or Produced

USA 50 or 150

China 30 or 60

Which nation has the comparative advantage in producing Apparel? Which nation has the comparative advantage in producing chemicals? Explain how you arrived at these conclusions.

Explain the Law of Comparative Advantage, and its application to trading relationships between nations. In the example above, if the two nations decide to engage in mutually beneficial trade, which nation should specialize in producing Apparel and which nation should specialize in producing Chemicals, and Why?

Suppose a trade proposal is made to exchange 1 thousand units of apparel for 2.5 tons of chemicals. Would these terms of trade (1 Apparel : 2.5 Chemicals ) be acceptable to, and mutually beneficial for, both the USA and China as trading partners? Why or why not?

What are the “payoffs” from open trade? What are some of the limitations associated with open trade?

4. (Part B) Suppose the USA and EU are trading, and currencies must be exchanged as goods/services are imported and exported between the two regions. The $USD is the currency of the USA, and the €Euro is the currency of the EU.

a. Are the following statements correct or incorrect? Why or why not?

“If the USA is exporting its goods to the EU, these exports from the USA to the EU create a demand for €Euros in the Currency Exchange Market for €Euros.”

“If the USA is importing goods from the EU, these imports to the USA from the EU create a supply of $USD in the Currency Exchange Market for $USD’s.”

“If the EU is importing goods from the USA, these imports to the EU from the USA create a demand for $USD in the Currency Exchange Market for $USD’s.”

Throughout your answer to any of these other questions, use graphs as needed (all axes and functions completely labeled) to accompany your written analyses.