AOSC 200 Lecture Notes - Lecture 18: Thermal Expansion, Carbon Cycle, Sea Level Rise
10 Apr 2018
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Document Summary
Warming of the planet (ipcc 2013) topics. Why is it difficult to predict the weather (concept of chaos) Ensembles are done to minimize uncertainty in some model parameters. Ensemble runs are done by re-running the model by using a range of values for the parameters that have uncertainties. Any single run of the model represents one possible outcomes. The ensemble runs can then be averaged to give a single ensemble mean. How can we predict the change in climate. What are used are the most sophisticated climate models developed by several institutions in various countries as a tool to do such predictions. These models are run with prescribed scenarios of possible changes in various atmospheric inputs. The intergovernmental panel on climate change (ipcc) is charged with overseeing the conduct of the various experiments. Ipcc was established by the un environmental program and the world.
