POL 324 Lecture 4: Lecture 4
5 Feb 2019
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Worse economy allows more opening for challengers, worse for the incumbents. Am i better off than i was a year ago? . Blame goes more on incumbents when eco is worse= more competition. Dependent on political party of the president and candidate. If the president is popular, vote for his party. If the president is unpopular, vote his party out. Pattern 3: midterm penalty penalty because no one else to blame except yourself. Pattern 4: surge and decline party -> midterm election > decline: president"s party loses seats for the president"s popularity influence on those running. During midterms there is no effect on the president. Competition different > more difficult for president"s party. Opens doors for (qualified) challengers from other party. The party in power often does worse during midterm election. Unified government, if you control everything, you are more likely to pay the highest. Presidential election > popular presidential candidate > surge: more seats for.
