B A 360 Lecture Notes - Lecture 7: Moving Average, Time Series, Exponential Smoothing
Document Summary
What is forecasting? predicting basis a future event of all business decisions " Usually c 3 monty mediumiorabngeschfoeieaii " work assignments) doftaiey! 3 months to 2 years long - range. , new product or operations planning ] the system design of the life cycle upward or downward pattern. Persistent , overall change due to population, typically several years duration technology , age, culture social norms etc. " regular pattern of up and down fluctuations. Due to weather customs social norms etc . occurs within a single year quantitative methods cyclical component and repeating up. Multiple years duration down movements affected by business cycle , political , and economic tutors. Fluctuations due to random variation or short duration and nonrepeating onforseen events qualitative methods. Assumes demand in next period is the same as demand in most recent period force. Qualitative forecasting methods jury of execution opinion - pool opinions of high - level experts , sometimes argument by statistical methods.
