POLI 211 Lecture Notes - Arms Race, Best Response, Security Dilemma
Discussion
Course framework = interests, interactions, institutions
Today: interests, interactions
§
○
To develop theory
Step 1 - who are the actors?
§
2 - what are their interests?
Goals / what they want
□
Strategies they employ para interacitons
□
§
Assumptions
Actors = rational, make cost/benefit analysis
□
Given goal, actor makes action that maxmizes interests
□
§
○
•
Arms race?
•
States increasing mil strength 2 gain compet adv
Ex: period before WW1
○
•
(1)Actors: US and USSR
•
(2)intersts?
Preferences over outcomes (?)
○
Have more arms than the other
○
•
(3) choices/strategies
ARM or DISARM
Increase military budget
§
Negotiate with SU
§
○
USSR
D
A
USA
D
DD
3/3
DA
0/5
A
AD
5/0
AA
1/1
US preferences, ranked:
AD
DD
AA
DA
§
Soviet Union preferences: DA, DD, AA, AD
§
So, US and SU will both arm because preference #1 require arming
=> achieves AA, 3rd choice for both
§
○
Best response doesn't necessarily achieve best outcome bc there's >1
actor
○
DD > AA, but DD is an unstable situation because both nations are
incentivized to switch to A
○
•
Powerpoint Time•
What kind of theory?
No seek1 theory 4 all IR
○
Seek theories for specific situations
○
•
Puzle #1: Why do rational actors go to war with each other?
Security dilemma - increase mil strength to heighten security
Rationale: International order is anarchic - nobody can prevent
another state from invading me
§
=> arm up
§
○
Ppl don't keep in mind that war is costly
Why go to war if you can get the same thing w/o fighting?
§
○
•
L9.5 Theorizing Conflict
Wednesday, September 5, 2018
11:05 AM
