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FIN 260 Lecture Notes - Lecture 54: Capital Asset Pricing Model, Dividend Discount Model, Cash Flow

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Pace University
Department
Finance
Course
FIN 260
Professor
Morey

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Document Summary

Stock prices are subject to bubbles, crashes to behavioral biases, so trying to value what they are really worth is incredibly difficult. Even w/ the techniques learned here, most people do a very poor job of picking stocks to buy & sell: most people do not beat the market. The problem is we don"t know if pfizer will generate million. Think of all the different things that are going to affect pfizer"s. The drugs that it will or won"t invent. business over the next 20 years: over the next 20 years. Changes in fda regulations, medicare, health insurance, etc. The drugs its competitors will or won"t invent. Changes in people"s lifestyles & attitudes towards drugs. Changes in management of company (will they be able attract the same scientists, etc. ) So this is really, really hard (not impossible) but really hard: efficient markets, no reason to do anything else. The price is never overvalued or undervalued.

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Related Questions

International Research Journal of Applied Finance ISSN 2229 – 6891

Vol. VI Issue – 8 August, 2015 Case Study Series

A Stock Valuation Case: An Application of the “Method of Comparables” for Macy’s Shares

Halil D. Kaya* ,Julia S. Kwok

Abstract

The primary focus of this case is the application of the “Method of Comparables” in the estimation of the value of a security. An investment decision will be made based on the comparison of the selling price and the estimated value. A security will be good for purchase if the estimated value is higher than the market price. This method utilizes basic financial ratios that are commonly provided by financial web sites. First, using Yahoo Finance website, the pricing, sales, book value of equity and shares outstanding data are collected for both the target firm and the competitor firms. Then, the pricing multiples (i.e. price earnings ratio, price to sales ratio and price to book ratio) of the competitors are calculated. After that, those multiples along with the target firm’s earnings, sales, book value and shares outstanding data are used to estimate target firm’s share value. The case also examines the impact of treating “negatives” in the data. Students will learn that replacing negative earnings with zeros tend to induce less bias in target firm’s value estimation than excluding the “negative” data altogether.

Introduction

March 14, 2015 was a sunny day. Mary took advantage of the nice weather to have lunch at the Mall. On her way back to work, she walked by Susan’s investment office. Susan was Mary’s college roommate. They both liked shopping together to find new fashionable clothes. Looking at her watch, Mary realized she had half an hour to spend. She thought she would drop by and say hello to Susan.

The Performance of Macy’s

“Hi, Susan, how are you?” How is your business?” said Mary. Susan was a recent finance graduate. Susan replied, “I am doing fine. Thank you. After so many years, the market is still recovering from the mortgage crisis; many investors have been buying back stocks that they have sold during the crisis. What are you up to?” “I want to start my investment in securities, too. I have a couple thousand dollars, would Macy’s be a good stock to invest in now? That was our favorite store to shop among all of the department stores,” Mary exclaimed. She added, “Also, I read from Motley’s Fool’s article on Macy’s today about its earnings per share growth for the last 16 quarters” (Zahid Waheed, 2014).

In response to Mary’s questions, Susan checked the monthly adjusted returns of Macy’s in Yahoo Finance. She found that, since March 2010, Macy’s stock price had an average annual increase of 23.5% over the last 5 years. The stock rose from $19.98 to $57.38. Susan then told Mary that Macy’s was indeed a growing stock. She added that its success could be attributed to the omni-channel integration, e-commerce and magic selling strategies which allowed merging of sales channels, online shopping and better customer care. Since investment strategy 101 is to buy low, and sell high, given Macy’s stock price had been going up, Susan was not sure whether Macy’s was currently overvalued or undervalued by the market.

The Method of Comparables

Susan remembered her class lecture on the two types of valuation of stocks, namely absolute and relative evaluation. The absolute evaluation focuses on finding the intrinsic value of the security based on fundamentals. That involves more complicated models of discounting cash flows from dividends, operations and residual income.

On the other hand, relative evaluation is quick and easy to use. It assumes two similar securities should sell for one price in an efficient market, i.e. “Law of One Price.” So an analyst can estimate its stock price by multiplying target company’s specific earnings, sales and equity value data by the earning, sales and equity “per share” financial multiples of its competitors.

Since Mary was not familiarized with financial models, Susan decided to use the easy-toperform-and-analyze “Comparables Method” to estimate the relative value of Macy’s stock.

The Financial Data

Dillards, JC Penney and Nordstrom were selected as competitors of Macy’s as they were all in retail department store business. Susan would need some financial data regarding these companies. She went to SEC’s (i.e. Securities and Exchange Commission) website and downloaded these companies’ most recent balance sheet and income statement data. Out of those statements, she knew that she would need the EPS (i.e. earnings per share), the sales number, the number of outstanding shares, and the book value of equity. She also knew that she would need the current share price for each company. After some work, she had found all the necessary information to run the analysis. Below were the data that she had gathered:

All data are in US$ except for the number of outstanding shares. The share price as of March 15, 2014 is shown in the first column. The “Earnings per share” is shown in the second column. The third column reports the book value of equity. The last column shows the number of outstanding shares.

Firm

P ($)

EPS ($)

Sales ($)

BV of equity ($)

# of shares

Macy's

58.58

3.93

27,931 mil.

6,249 mil.

378.3 mil.

Dillard's

90.61

7.10

6,532 mil.

1,992 mil.

45.6 mil.

JC Penney

8.71

-5.57

11,859 mil.

3,087 mil.

249.3 mil.

Nordstrom

61.33

3.77

12,166 mil.

2,080 mil.

194.5 mil.

The Decision

Susan thinks that the following steps would be necessary to perform the analysis:

1.Based on the data above, calculate Sales per share, BV of equity/share values of all firms. Note that EPS is directly given.

2.Calculate P/E, P/Sales, and P/B for all of Macy’s competitors based on the data obtained.

3.Find the average of the P/E, P/Sales, and P/B multiples for the three competitors.

4.Multiply those averages calculated in step 3 with Macy’s EPS, Sales per share, and BV of equity/share values, respectively to get three value estimates for Macy’s shares.

5.The average of the three estimates would then be Susan’s best estimate of Macy’s value per share.

answer # 1-5 please

1. Which of the following is true?
The corporation model can be used to value divisions and firms that do not pay dividends.
The discounted dividend model can be used to value divisions and firms that do not pay dividends.
For the discounted dividend model, a firm's weighted average cost of capital is used as the discount rate.
For the corporate valuation model, a firm's cost of equity is used as the discount rate.
Question 2.2. Which of the following is false?
For the constant growth model to hold, a firm's cost of equity needs to be smaller than its constant dividend growth rate (i.e., rs < g).
For the constant growth model to hold, a firm's cost of equity needs to be greater than its constant dividend growth rate (i.e., rs > g).
From the constant growth model, if the constant dividend growth rate is equal to zero, a firm's share price is equal to the constant dividend divided by the cost of equity (i.e., g=0).
If a company's constant dividend growth rate is negative, the formula for the constant growth model cannot be applied.
Question 3.3. From the discussion of a firm's capital budgeting problem in chapter 11, which of the following is false? (Points : 3.5)
The net present value method (NPV) assumes that cash flows are reinvested at the weighted average cost of capital (WACC).
The internal rate of return method (IRR) assumes that cash flows are reinvested at the internal rate of return.
The modified internal rate of return method (MIRR) assumes that cash flows are reinvested at the weighted average cost of cpaital.
For mutually exclusive projects, if there is a conflict between NPV and IRR, the project with the highest IRR is chosen.
The IRR is independent of a firm's weighted average cost of capital.
Question 4.4. Which of the following is true? (
As a firm's dividend payout ratio increases, the firm's WACC decreases.
The WACC only represents the "hurdle rate" for a typical project with average risk. Therefore, the project's WACC should be adjusted to reflect the project's risk.
Firms with riskier projects generally have a lower WACC.
Holding all else constant, an increase in the target debt ratio tends to lower the WACC.
Question 5.5. Which of the following is false?
If interest rates rise, the price of the bond will rise and its YTM (yield to maturity) will fall.
Short-term bond prices are less sensitive than long-term bond prices to interest rate changes.
Companies are not likely to call bonds unless interest rates have declined significantly. Thus, the call provision is valuable to firms but detrimental to long term investors.
On balance, bonds that have a sinking fund are regarded as being safer than those without such a provision.
Question 6.6. Which of the following is not true? (Points : 3.5)
According to SML (security market line), the risk premium on a high-beta stock would increase more than that on a low-beta stock.
If beta < 1.0, the security is less risky than average.
According to the Security Market Line (SML), in general, a company’s expected return will double when its beta doubles.
According to the Security Market Line (SML), if a portfolio of real world stocks has a beta of zero, the required rate of return for the portfolio is equal to the risk-free rate.
Question 7.7. P&G Industries bonds have a maturity of 15 years with a $1,000 face value, have an 8% semiannual coupon, are callable in 10 years at $1,125, and currently sell at a price of $1,105. What is their nominal annual yield to call?
6.87%.
7.37%.
11.05%.
8.32%.
Question 8.8. Which of the following is not the flaw (weakness) of the discounted payback method? (Points : 3.5)
It does not tells us by how much the project should increase shareholder wealth, or by how much a project yields over the cost of capital; it merely tells us when we recover our investment.
It ignores cash flows occurring after the payback period.
It ignores the time value of money, that is, dollars received in different years are all given the same weight.
Question 9.9. Jermey Lin has $52,500 invested a stock with a beta of 0.80 and another $47,500 invested in a stock with a beta of 3.2. If these are the only two investments in his portfolio, what is his portfolio's beta?
1.56.
1.82.
2.00.
1.94
Question 10.10. According to CAPM, if the required rate of the return of Stock A obtained from the security market line (SML) is less than the expected rate of the return of stock A from the capital market transaction, then stock A is
fairly priced.
undervalued.
overvalued.
Question 11.11. Determine the yield-to-call (to nearest 0.1 of a percent) of an LTV bond with a 12 percent coupon, that pays interest annually. The bond can be called in 5 years, has a call premium of $114, and is currently selling for $912.50. The bond has a face value of $1,000.
14.58%.
13.92%.
16.34%.
12.17%.
Question 12.12. Project M costs $1,000, its expected cash inflows are $500 per year for 3 years, and its WACC is 11%. What is the project's NPV? (Points : 3.5)
$259.57.
$221.86.
$195.23.
$257.35.
Question 13.13. Project J costs $1,025, its expected cash inflows are $425 per year for 3 years, and its WACC is 10%. What is the project's IRR?
12.58%.
10.82%.
11.76%.
9.64%.
Question 14.14. Project X costs $6,750, its expected cash inflows are $1250 per year for 10 years, and its WACC is 10%. What is the project's payback?(Note, the regular payback is asked in this question, not the discounted payback.) (Points : 3.5)
5.40 years.
10 years.
4.58 years.
6.12 years.
Question 15.15. Project S costs $800, its expected cash inflows are $350 per year for 3 years, and its WACC is 7%. What is the project's MIRR?
13.97%.
12.04%.
14.93%.
9.15%.
Question 16.16. Project Y costs $650, its expected cash inflows are $500 per year for 5 years, and its WACC is 10%. What is the project's discounted payback?
1.47 years.
1.24 years.
1.62 years.
1.15 years.
1. Which of the following is true?
The corporation model can be used to value divisions and firms that do not pay dividends.
The discounted dividend model can be used to value divisions and firms that do not pay dividends.
For the discounted dividend model, a firm's weighted average cost of capital is used as the discount rate.
For the corporate valuation model, a firm's cost of equity is used as the discount rate.
Question 2.2. Which of the following is false?
For the constant growth model to hold, a firm's cost of equity needs to be smaller than its constant dividend growth rate (i.e., rs < g).
For the constant growth model to hold, a firm's cost of equity needs to be greater than its constant dividend growth rate (i.e., rs > g).
From the constant growth model, if the constant dividend growth rate is equal to zero, a firm's share price is equal to the constant dividend divided by the cost of equity (i.e., g=0).
If a company's constant dividend growth rate is negative, the formula for the constant growth model cannot be applied.
Question 3.3. From the discussion of a firm's capital budgeting problem in chapter 11, which of the following is false?
The net present value method (NPV) assumes that cash flows are reinvested at the weighted average cost of capital (WACC).
The internal rate of return method (IRR) assumes that cash flows are reinvested at the internal rate of return.
The modified internal rate of return method (MIRR) assumes that cash flows are reinvested at the weighted average cost of cpaital.
For mutually exclusive projects, if there is a conflict between NPV and IRR, the project with the highest IRR is chosen.
The IRR is independent of a firm's weighted average cost of capital.
Question 4.4. Which of the following is true? (Points : 3.5)
As a firm's dividend payout ratio increases, the firm's WACC decreases.
The WACC only represents the "hurdle rate" for a typical project with average risk. Therefore, the project's WACC should be adjusted to reflect the project's risk.
Firms with riskier projects generally have a lower WACC.
Holding all else constant, an increase in the target debt ratio tends to lower the WACC.
Question 5.5. Which of the following is false? (Points : 3.5)
If interest rates rise, the price of the bond will rise and its YTM (yield to maturity) will fall.
Short-term bond prices are less sensitive than long-term bond prices to interest rate changes.
Companies are not likely to call bonds unless interest rates have declined significantly. Thus, the call provision is valuable to firms but detrimental to long term investors.
On balance, bonds that have a sinking fund are regarded as being safer than those without such a provision.
Question 6.6. Which of the following is not true? (Points : 3.5)
According to SML (security market line), the risk premium on a high-beta stock would increase more than that on a low-beta stock.
If beta < 1.0, the security is less risky than average.
According to the Security Market Line (SML), in general, a company’s expected return will double when its beta doubles.
According to the Security Market Line (SML), if a portfolio of real world stocks has a beta of zero, the required rate of return for the portfolio is equal to the risk-free rate.
Question 7.7. P&G Industries bonds have a maturity of 15 years with a $1,000 face value, have an 8% semiannual coupon, are callable in 10 years at $1,125, and currently sell at a price of $1,105. What is their nominal annual yield to call? (Points : 3.5)
6.87%.
7.37%.
11.05%.
8.32%.
Question 8.8. Which of the following is not the flaw (weakness) of the discounted payback method? (Points : 3.5)
It does not tells us by how much the project should increase shareholder wealth, or by how much a project yields over the cost of capital; it merely tells us when we recover our investment.
It ignores cash flows occurring after the payback period.
It ignores the time value of money, that is, dollars received in different years are all given the same weight.
Question 9.9. Jermey Lin has $52,500 invested a stock with a beta of 0.80 and another $47,500 invested in a stock with a beta of 3.2. If these are the only two investments in his portfolio, what is his portfolio's beta? (Points : 3.5)
1.56.
1.82.
2.00.
1.94
Question 10.10. According to CAPM, if the required rate of the return of Stock A obtained from the security market line (SML) is less than the expected rate of the return of stock A from the capital market transaction, then stock A is (
fairly priced.
undervalued.
overvalued.
Question 11.11. Determine the yield-to-call (to nearest 0.1 of a percent) of an LTV bond with a 12 percent coupon, that pays interest annually. The bond can be called in 5 years, has a call premium of $114, and is currently selling for $912.50. The bond has a face value of $1,000. (Points : 3.5)
14.58%.
13.92%.
16.34%.
12.17%.
Question 12.12. Project M costs $1,000, its expected cash inflows are $500 per year for 3 years, and its WACC is 11%. What is the project's NPV?
$259.57.
$221.86.
$195.23.
$257.35.
Question 13.13. Project J costs $1,025, its expected cash inflows are $425 per year for 3 years, and its WACC is 10%. What is the project's IRR? (
12.58%.
10.82%.
11.76%.
9.64%.
Question 14.14. Project X costs $6,750, its expected cash inflows are $1250 per year for 10 years, and its WACC is 10%. What is the project's payback?(Note, the regular payback is asked in this question, not the discounted payback.) (Points : 3.5)
5.40 years.
10 years.
4.58 years.
6.12 years.
Question 15.15. Project S costs $800, its expected cash inflows are $350 per year for 3 years, and its WACC is 7%. What is the project's MIRR? (
13.97%.
12.04%.
14.93%.
9.15%.
Question 16.16. Project Y costs $650, its expected cash inflows are $500 per year for 5 years, and its WACC is 10%. What is the project's discounted payback?
1.47 years.
1.24 years.
1.62 years.
1.15 years.