FIN 435 Lecture Notes - Lecture 5: Nominal Interest Rate, United States Dollar, Weighted Arithmetic Mean

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Exchange rate determination: the influences of interest rates and inflation on exchange rates. The first part of this chapter explains some basic economic relationships between prices, interest rates, forward rates and spot rates. These relationships (parity conditions) are often helpful in forecasting long- term exchange rates. Countries with high inflation rates should see their exports become less desirable (their prices are climbing fast) and their imports more desirable. As a consequence, the value of the currency should drop. If an identical good or service is sold in two markets with no selling restrictions or transportation costs, the real price of the good or service should be the same. In two different countries: ph = s x pf where s is the exchange rate (home / foreign), p is the price, and h and f stand for home and foreign respectively. Hence pih = s x pif or s = pih / pif where pi stands for price index.

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