18.05 Lecture Notes - Lecture 2: Mit Opencourseware
Document Summary
The following pair of questions appeared in a column by martin gardner in scienti c. American in 1959. (a) mr. jones has two children. What is the probability that both children are girls? (b) mr. smith has two children. At least one of them is a boy. In a city with one hundred taxis, 1 is blue and 99 are green. A witness observes a hit-and-run by a taxi at night and recalls that the taxi was blue, so the police arrest the blue taxi driver who was on duty that night. The driver proclaims his innocence and hires you to defend him in court. You hire a scientist to test the witness" ability to distinguish blue and green taxis under conditions similar to the night of accident. The data suggests that the witness sees blue cars as blue 99% of the time and green cars as blue 2% of the time.
